Quiet & Seasonable...

Good Morning!

Some hazy sunshine in the area this morning, along with clouds.  The rain should hold off for another day or so though, and we keep things pretty much where they are at temperature wise.  Deeper dive coming up!

TEMPERATURES:  We'll keep temperatures holding in the 70's right through until the end of the week, when some rain moves into the area.  We'll talk more about that below.  For now, take a look at the surface temperatures around the nation:

US Surface Temperatures

You can still see the features that are dictating the pattern right now.  Split flow is still there like I talked about yesterday, with the northern branch of the jet stream well into Canada, and the southern branch having to work around a roadblock trough that is forcing air all the way into Mexico before it can turn the corner and come back northeast into the US.  It has a couple of lows just drifting very slowly east.  If you look over Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, you can see what's left of a cold-core upper low.  That thing is also wandering slowly eastward.  I'll point these out on the GFS computer model map:

GFS Computer Forecast Map, Valid 11 AM EDT Monday 5/6

Bottom line, 70 or better through Wednesday for sure, then we stand to drop back into the 60's thanks to some...

RAIN:  We'll remain dry albeit cloudy at times through Tuesday night.  What I'm seeing is forecast modeling debating the chances of a shower or two Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday.  I want to see what they say again in six hours, but for now, my money says dry in most spots, perhaps maybe a stray shower in a couple of places, and not much more than that.  I really think the better chances of rain come in the tail end of the work week, Thursday evening, and Friday into Saturday.  Here's what the Weather Prediction Center says regarding rain and such the next seven days:

Weather Prediction Center Forecast Map, Valid through 8 AM Monday May 13th

Rain totals for the next seven days have come down slightly for Michigan.  We're looking at a half-inch on the high side now, where before some places along the south state line had a shot at around an inch of precipitation.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Not much of that to be found anywhere.  The Storm Prediction Center doesn't even have any slight risk areas up until Wednesday, and that's way southwest of us in the heart of Tornado Alley.  The chasers will likely be watching Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas on Wednesday.  Even so, SPC is less than enthusiastic about the chances of severe weather out there, saying that they see just enough evidence in the forecast data to warrant a textbook slight risk, nothing more.

Here's a look at some mid and high level clouds on the visible satellite that are making for hazy sunshine in the area...

Visible Satellite Image

And this is the forecast for Jackson:

Today - Mixed sunshine, seasonably mild, high 72.  Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Blended starlight and cool, lows roll back to 45.  Winds ESE 4-7 MPH.

Tuesday - Continued partly sunny, a bit warmer, some spots may see a very brief afternoon shower. High 75. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday Night - Periods of clouds and stars, not as cool, lows near 47.  Wind E 4-7 MPH.

Wednesday - Partly sunny, seasonably warm, high 77.  Wind SE 6-12 MPH.

Thursday - Mixed sunshine early, then cloudy, some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon, high 76.

Friday - Cloudy, periods of showers, cooler, high 66.

Saturday - Partly sunny early, then clouds thicken and some showers re-form over the area, high 68.

Sunday - Cloudy, scattered to numerous showers, cooler, high only 57.

There's a look at your forecast for the next week.  I do hope that you have a great Monday!  Blessings.