Another Warm Day, Rainy & Cooler Coming...

Good Morning!

Another bright and sunny start to this mid-spring day here in Michigan.  We have bright blue skies in the area right now, but some changes will be working into the area over the next several hours and into tomorrow.  Let's have a deeper dive and take a look at them:

TEMPERATURES:  We see one or two more days of spring, almost summer-like conditions, then we cool things back down for the weekend.  mid to upper 70's and even an 80 are on tap for today and early tomorrow, then we cloud things over and introduce the chance of some rain.  Let's look at the surface temperatures right now around the nation.

And here's a look at the satellite image, where you can see we are largely cloud-free, so abundant sunshine to take in for the day today...

Now Thursday afternoon or evening, we'll see some changes as our winds swing around and become more westerly.  The cold front marches in along with a surface low coming out of the Plains, opening the door for cooler air from Canada to filter in when winds come around to the north or even northeast.  The cool down continues into the weekend, as even though I don't expect a washout, forecast modeling is suggesting readings that do not break 60 Saturday and Sunday.

RAIN:  Rain chances start going up this evening and keep climbing into tomorrow.  Some periods of scattered showers are possible this evening and tonight, with a more substantial chance tomorrow, along with a crack at some severe weather for the extreme southern edge of the blog (more on that below).  Take a look at the forecast radar map for tomorrow around evening drive:

NAM Forecast Model Simulated Reflectivity, 5 PM Thursday

As you can see, showers will overspread the area from southwest to northeast, with thunderstorms firing in the area by dinnertime if not sooner.  Some of these could get rough.  Details below.  On the back side of all of this, clearing skies and temperatures rolling all the back to the 50's for the weekend.  Have a look at the precipitation forecast map for the next week:

WPC 7 Day Precipitation Forecast

Rain totals for the next seven days have gone up a bit, with the computers suggesting an inch or more south, and around half of that north...

SEVERE WEATHER:  A bit of severe weather is possible on Thursday according to the most current look from the Storm Predcition Center.  Let's look at their Day 2 forecast map:

As you can see, this would be an issue for Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee counties in the blog.  The main threat would be gusty wind and perhaps some hail.  I will know more as we examine data later today and into early tomorrow.  As a sidebar, today we note a risk of severe weather in the southern Plains, Kansas, Oklahoma, and north-central Texas.

Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

Mainly sunny this afternoon with some passing clouds, warm, high 78.  Winds N calm to 5 MPH.

Tonight, some clouds develop, and along with them, some spots may see a hit or miss shower, lows near 50.  Winds light and variable.

Thursday, sunny to start, then clouds increase during the afternoon with some showers developing by evening drive home.  High 77.  Winds S 5-10 MPH.

Thursday night, cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, lows near 53.  Winds turning N 5-10 MPH.

Friday, continued cloudy early with maybe some lingering showers, then clearing, much cooler, high only 61.

Saturday, clear, seasonably cool, high 62.

Sunday, sunny, chilly, high 56.

Monday, continued clear and cool, high 61.

Tuesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 72.

That's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great hump day!