Sunday, May 5, 2013

A Nice Stretch Ahead...

Good Evening!  And Happy Cinco De Mayo!

A beautiful Spring day is winding down in South Central Michigan - mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine.  The good news is we keep this trend around for the next few days.  Let's have a look:

TEMPERATURES:  We'll keep these low to mid 70's readings around for the next several days, with a split jet stream flow aloft, and a couple of roadblock air masses shaping things.  A low is kind of sitting out over the southern Rockies and currently doing more spinning than moving, though it looks to start tracking east and working into the High Plains later this week.  The other two features are high pressure that is slowly moving offshore via New England, and the leftovers of a cold core upper low down in the Deep South that is wandering toward the Atlantic, likely to depart the eastern seaboard through Georgia and the Carolinas.  We are getting winds out of the east off the north side of that feature, keeping us mild.  70's stick by us until Friday, when we introduce some shower and storm activity into the mix and cool it down for the weekend.  As it looks now from a week out, we'll be 10-15 degrees cooler for Saturday.

PRECIPITATION:  We have some clouds around the area, but not much in the way of moisture for rain and such.  Even if we did have that, we don't have any forcing mechanism to destabilize the air and make the atmosphere grumpy enough to rain.  We stay dry for the next few days owing to the pattern I alluded to above.  That being said, forecast models do try to bring us some shower activity Tuesday night and again Wednesday night, with a more substantial crack at rain Friday.  Take a look at the 7 day map from the Weather Prediction Center...

7 Day Precipitation Forecast Map
We pick up between a half-inch to just under an inch in the area for the next week.  This rain looks to be scattered in nature until Friday.  My take is to gloss over the Tuesday night deal, add the mention of perhaps a stray shower for Wednesday night, and then put most of my stock into showers and maybe some thunder Friday night into Saturday.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nope.  The Storm Prediction Center is watching for something to potentially develop southwest of us in the latter half of the week, but all quiet through their three day forecast window right now, with just garden variety thunderstorms expected in the lower 48.

Here's a look at the visible satellite picture, showing just those wispy, semi-thick medium to high clouds off the upper low in the South.

Visible Satellite
No need to show you radar here because it has been and will be dry.  Let's have a look at a really nice forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Pleasant Lake:

Tonight:  A mix of moonlight and stars cool, lows near 44 with winds ESE 5-8 MPH.

Monday:  Plenty of sunshine, some passing clouds, high 73.  Wind ESE 5-10 MPH.

Monday Night:  More mixed starlight, lows near 46.  Wind ESE 5-10 MPH.

The extended forecast should be up tomorrow morning!  Blessings.

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