One Last Nice Day...Chilly For Mom...

Good Morning!

Clear and beautiful around South Central Michigan right now, and I expect things to stay that way -- for awhile.  Some changes are on the way, and we'll get to those in a bit.  For now, let's look at the satellite image:

Visible Satellite Image

As you can see, nothing around us, but you don't need to go very far to the southwest to find clouds, and in those, some rain and such.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running under there:

TEMPERATURES:  We are warm and almost summery right now, but you can forget about that for the weekend.  Have a look at the the current temperatures around this great nation right now:

We climb to right about 80 today, but by Sunday, we'll give back almost thirty degrees of warmth on the thermometer!  Right now, computer forecast models are advertising a high of 53 for Sunday!  That would be close to, if not a record for lowest high temperature.  I'll have to check with the National Weather Service on that one for you.  I hope things change some and we don't get that cold!  After today, the backslide starts.  A frontal system moves through tonight, bringing us some showers and thunderstorms (more on that below), and we retreat into the 60's for tomorrow, then it's downhill from there.  The next time we get into seasonable readings again is Tuesday, when we manage to pull back into low 70's territory.

RAIN:  Enjoy the sunny skies right now.  By around 8 PM, we'll have shower activity and possibly a few thunderstorms roaming about.  Have a look at this map:

NAM Model FutureCast - 8 PM EDT Tonight

This is the NAM forecast model's idea of what NEXRAD radar will look like this evening.  There is still a bit of disagreement between the forecast models, a couple of other ones have this system moving quicker, with rain in here as early as 5 PM.  My take: we should be able to get through most of the evening drive in dry fashion.  After the rain shows up, I don't think we really start to dry out again until late Friday afternoon.  I don't see the weekend as a washout, but sunshine will be in short supply for us on Saturday, and Mother's Day will be chilly.  This next map is the rain forecast for the next seven days from the Weather Prediction Center:

WPC 7 Day Precipitation Forecast

This is suggesting that we see around an inch to nearly an inch and a half of rain.  I think we stay in the lower to middle part of that spread - about 1.25" on the high side.  Showers develop this evening, most of Friday is wet, then we get into the more scattered precipitation for Saturday and Sunday.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Some slight changes for our area regarding rough weather.  The "slight" risk bubble has been pulled out of Michigan, and affects areas southwest of us, from Missouri, through Illinois, and Indiana.  Another good sized area encompasses most of Texas and Oklahoma, also western Arkansas and Louisiana.  Nothing but the risk of general thunder in Michigan for today and tomorrow.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Spring Arbor:

Today, sunny skies until mid afternoon then increasing clouds with showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms by sunset, high 79.  Wind W calm to 6 MPH.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms, a couple of storms may have some gusty winds.  Lows roll back to 53, winds turn ESE 7-14 MPH.

Friday, mainly cloudy skies, some lingering showers and perhaps a buried thunderstorm through mid-afternoon, then maybe some peeks at sun later, much cooler, with a high of only 59.  Wind N 6-12 MPH.

Friday night, a bit of clearing, cold, lows down to 40.  Wind N 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, more clouds than sun, unseasonably cool, an isolated shower can't be ruled out, high only 58.

Sunday, partly sunny, chilly for the second way of May, high only 52.

Monday, sunny skies, still cool but warming starts, high 57.

Tuesday, sunny to start, clouds develop in the afternoon high 72.

Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, we have to mention the chance of a stray shower or two, warmer, high 75.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days -- wish I had better news for you for Mother's Day Weekend.  Have a great Thursday!  Blessings.