Back To Spring...

Good Morning,

After a couple of days off to recharge the batteries and try to catch up on a little work around the place, I am back.  BIG changes ahead, as we balance out the rude shove into the chilly weather for the weekend with the first heat of the season.  Temperatures pushing 80 or better are on the way, as we rebound from fall-like weather, catch Spring today, and settle into a late Spring and even summerish pattern.  One deeper dive coming up!

TEMPERATURES:  Now that we are through with the colder conditions, warmer air is marching (that's warm air advection for you weather geeks), and it is coming this way.  The entire lower 48 is under a ridge right now that is bringing with it some warm air.  Temperatures into the 90's out in the Plains are working this way.  Take a look at the current surface temperature map:

US Surface Temperatures

South Dakota and Nebraska already have readings in the 80's and it's nowhere CLOSE to noon yet!  Average temperatures this time of year in the area are right around 71 degrees, and we'll stay above that for the next several days.  Forecast models are suggesting readings between 72 and 80 as time goes by.  I will take that over the chilly stuff any day of the week!

RAIN:  Hard to believe that just a couple of days ago I was actually in the car watching SLEET fall and hit the windows.  None of that in the forecast now, and I will just leave it at that, as I have said we should be able to put away the cold weather stuff twice - and twice been made to eat my words!  Two chances for rain in the mix, one this evening into tomorrow, with a surface low cruising the US/Canada border off to the northwest above Minnesota right now, though we expect it to turn left and lift northward away from us.  The second, in time for the weekend, with some showers and a few thunderstorms working in during the day on Saturday and lingering into Sunday from the current forecast data I have at hand.  Look at this precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center:

7 Day Precipitation Forecast Map

There's a big difference in the five and seven day outlooks from the WPC, which suggests to me that the forecast models may actually have latched onto something legit, regarding some decent rainfall this weekend.  Typically beyond 3 days out, you need to factor in a good dose of skepticism when you're looking at model data.  I will still do that, but I am definitely adding a mention of scattered to numerous showers and some storms for the weekend at this point.  We can always adjust up or down as needed.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much on tap for severe storms in the US for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  We have a "See Text" area over Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula where some strong storms may fire this evening, as well as down in SW Texas, but no elevated risk areas on the map for the next 72 hours.

Take a look at this satellite picture, clouds on the way out of here, warmth working in from the southwest...

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast:

Today, becoming sunny and mild, some spots may see a stray afternoon shower or pop-up storm, high 74.  Wind turning SW 7-15 MPH.

Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, some breaks for stars, again, we can't rule out an isolated shower or lonely thunderstorm, lows only drop to about 62.  Winds W 8-16 MPH.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, slight chance of an afternoon shower or two, high 79.  Wind SW 8-16 MPH.

Wednesday night, mixed moonlight and cooler, lows drop to near 48.  Wind SW 4-7 MPH.

Thursday, sunny, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 80.

There's a look at your forecast for the next couple of days, the extended forecast comes tonight.  Have a great day!  Blessings.