Thursday, July 10, 2014

Rainy Weekend Ahead...

Good Morning!

If you want a sunny and comfy summer day, then this is the place to be!  More than enough sun to go around and cool, dry Canadian air to keep things pleasant for you!  We'll see some changes as we get to the weekend, then a surprise in store for the middle of July.  Let's get into it.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE:  Cool, dry, pleasant conditions in the area, with dew point values in the upper 40's to lower 50's.  No damp oppressive air here!  Also not much moisture for any clouds to form either.  Have a look at the visible satellite image...


As you can see, other than a few clouds over Windsor and points east, not a lot to see!  Because of that, no point in showing you radar either, unless you like looking at ground clutter.  Things won't change a whole lot in this regard for the next day or two either.

MILD TEMPERATURES:  Looking at the 9 AM surface temperature plot, we see the heat will be confined to where you expect it - the Desert Southwest and Deep South.  Temperatures in this part of the world this time of year average right around 83.  We don't see that with the exception of maybe this weekend, and the clear skies will allow for cool nights with open windows the only requirement for comfortable sleeping.  Computer forecast data is suggesting mid to upper 70's until Sunday, then a brief warm up.

CHANGES COMING NEXT WEEK:  I mentioned this above, now lets have a look at what I mean:

This is a map showing the expected surface temperature deviation from normal.  This map is valid at 8 AM Wednesday.  If this is right, you see that the Northwest will be see warmer than normal readings, with much of the lower 48 below average.  This suggests daytime highs in the low to mid 70's for next week.  I'm sure there won't be any complaints about that!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK:  Not today or tomorrow.  Too dry and cool.  That being said, the Storm Prediction Center does suggest that Branch and a sliver of Calhoun counties may get a couple of severe storms on Saturday, with hail and wind as the primary threats.  I'm sure that will change over the next 24 hours, so I'll update that as necessary.

RAINS AND SUCH:  Saturday through Monday are the best chances at showers and storms.  We stay clear through most of Friday, then we'll start seeing clouds work into the area.  By 6 PM, scattered showers and a few storms should develop and fire thanks to an upper disturbance working through the trough and low that's forecast to be over Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula at that point.  Here's the Weather Prediction Center forecast map:


If this is the right look, and this suggestion is getting better all the time, then late Friday evening on looks to be pretty wet.  That 2.3 inches of rain bullseye up around Big Rapids is something to note!

Now that most of the specifics are done:


And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:




And here's the Six Day Planner:


I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

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