Fall Is Here To Stay - Not Quite So Dreary Though...

Good Evening!

With another rare chance to look at and digest some weather data for you, time to have a look at what's going on in and around the area.  Let's get to it.

A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN:  You can see the mixed sunshine in this part of the world on the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite Image - notice the loose lake-effect banding over the southwest quarter of Michigan.

These banded clouds continue to bring some precipitation with them through the weekend.  If you're under mainly blue skies, enjoy them, as they won't last all that long.  If you're under cloudy skies, expect light showers and a few snowflakes mixed in.  That's the pattern I expect us to stay with through the weekend, even though we see a change early next week as the cool air gets shoved back north for a bit and...

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO START THE WEEK:  We finally manage to break the winter-like temperature pattern that has been in place, even if only for a few days.  Winds aloft turn westerly then southwest, and as a result, I expect temperatures to climb back into the 50's for the early part of next week, with some places edging toward 60, but I don't think anyone manages to get there.  We'll keep in some chances of rain/snowshowers as a couple of upper disturbances work through as well.  Average temperature this time of year in this part of the world is 54 degrees, and I think that is quite manageable, and apparently the computer models seem to agree.  After we get to mid-week though, we'll see...

COOLING BACK TO LATE FALL LEVELS:  The mercury heads back south for the latter half of next with readings not even making it out of the 40's.  Along with that, a return to the lake-effect precipitation motif as winds once again turn northwesterly and blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.

Here's a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is saying for us regarding precipitation the next five days...

As you can see, not a whole lot going on here, other than the lake effect.  That being said, I expect a decent amount of change in this forecast at least until tomorrow night.  The computer forecast models hate lake-effect precipitation forecasting almost as much as they hate convective weather forecasting.  They don't do very well with it.  They can usually get you to the right block for the party, but it's up to us forecasters to find the correct house :-)

NO SEVERE WEATHER OR MAJOR WINTER ISSUES HERE:  The only severe weather chances of note currently are on Saturday down in Texas, where a couple of gusty thunderstorms may pop up, but no slight risk anywhere in the US the next 72 hours.

Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leoni Township:

Tonight - periods of clouds, some rain or snow showers when the clouds roll through, lows near 28.  Watch for the occasional slick spot while driving as temperatures fall through freezing late.  Winds NW 6-12 MPH will bring wind chills closer to 23 degrees.

Friday - more mixed sunshine, clouds can bring some rain or rain mixed with flurries thanks to the lake effect, high 47.  Wind W 5-10 MPH.  Wind chills closer to 40 during the day.

Friday night - continued partly cloudy, same setup as Thursday night with some clouds maybe bringing some rain or rain and flurries, not quite as cold, lows around 31.  Wind W 4-8 MPH.

Saturday - partly sunny, not as cold, high 49.

Sunday - partly sunny, high 50.

Monday - mainly clear, warmer, high 53.

Tuesday - increasing clouds, some PM showers developing, high 54.

Wednesday - partly to mainly cloudy, some scattered showers, high 53 then falling during the evening.

There's a look at your forecast - have a wonderful evening!