Sunny & Quiet - Rain Next Week...

Good Morning!

Bright blue skies greet us here in south central Michigan this morning, and they indicate things to come.  It appears that our seasonably great weather will stay around a bit longer than initially expected before some rain shows up.  Let's pop the hood and see what's going on...

TEMPERATURES:  Average high this time of year in the area is right around 72.  We'll be as much as 10 degrees above that, with the GFS computer model thinking in a range of 72-80 over the next week.  Have a look at the current temperatures around the nation so far today:

US Surface Temperature Plot

You can really see the ridge with the warm air under it here, and the cooler air in an upper trough over the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.  I'm thinking we'll see 81-83 today with abundant sunshine, then dial it back a touch to the mid to upper 70's for tomorrow and starting the weekend.  Back to 80-82 in time for Monday into Tuesday, as a pretty good sized surface low that should be focused around North Dakota and Minnesota pushes some precipitation out ahead of it into the area.  High pressure runs the low out of here later next week and in time for the weekend.

RAIN:  Not much of that for the next few days, and a change to boot.  I originally said we might pick up some showers and storms for the coming weekend, but medium range forecast model data has now taken it's foot off the gas, to coin a phrase.  The same surface low that I said would push rain and such in here for Saturday evening and Sunday is now slowed down.  Instead of the weekend, it looks now to be almost two days slower.  Forecast models say the low that will trigger this is still there, and it's more or less in the same vicinity, just not moving as quickly as first forecast.  So, we should keep our mainly blue skies into the weekend, along with occasional clouds.  Those clouds should thicken on Saturday though, and you still may see a lonely pop-up shower or two during the evening hours (typical midwest pattern in spring and summer), but nothing to be considered a washout until late Monday at the earliest.  Have a look at the latest rainfall map from the Weather Prediction Center:

7 Day Precipitation Forecast, NWS Weather Prediction Center (Info: this product is experimental and not a full operational forecast tool yet).  I include it here to account for the rain that's expected to start the new work week.

As you can see, the forecast is for over an inch of rain, which we could use right now.  That won't come until the latter part of the forecast window though.  I think forecast modeling has a good handle on the big picture, but fitting the smaller pieces together, such as higher confidence in the timing of the low that will get us wet next week - that will still be up in the air until tomorrow.

SEVERE WEATHER:  All quiet in Michigan for the next three days, no organized storm activity forecast for us at all.  We do note that the Storm Prediction Center has added a "slight" risk over the ArkLaTex today, that area moves east tomorrow for Day 2, over the northern half of Mississippi and a small piece each of Arkansas and Tennessee.  The threat then shifts into the northern and central Plains for Day 3, where a potentially significant severe weather setup is forecast to take shape.  I will be keeping an eye on that one to see how far northeast that threat extends as the system moves east across the country.  Here's those maps for you:

SPC Day 1 Outlook

SPC Day 2 Outlook

SPC Day 3 Outlook - note the enhanced risk in the Northern Plains.  A 30% chance at significant severe weather (large hail, wind over 58 MPH, EF2 or stronger tornadoes) is something to pay attention to this far in advance.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is snoring, as there's nothing to see but birds, bugs, dust and such, and the visible satellite doesn't have a whole lot to see other than a few high clouds either:

Visible Satellite Image

All in all, a quiet, benign pattern for the next few days here in Michigan.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Tompkins:

Today, sunny, breezy, beautiful, high 81.  Wind WNW 4-10 MPH.

Tonight, starry skies, cool, good fan-free sleeping weather.  Lows near 48, wind ENE 5-10 MPH.

Friday, clear to start, clouds increase during the day, a touch cooler, high 76.  Wind E 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, a mixture of clouds and stars, just the mention of a possible lone shower, lows near 50, wind E 4-7 MPH.

Saturday, mostly cloudy skies, a few peeks of sun will be tempered with the chance of some widely scattered showers late, cooler, high 75.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, mild, a slight possibility of an isolated shower.  High 78.

Monday, mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers develop late, warmer, high 81.

Tuesday, continued cloudy, some scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms, high 80.

Wednesday, overcast skies persist, still the chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two, high 80.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.