Saturday, May 18, 2013

Unsettled Weather For Next Week...

Good Morning!

I see that the rest of my forecast discussion from last night didn't post, even though Blogger says it did.  Odd.  Anyway, see the post below for my thoughts about temperatures for the next few days, we will work on rain and severe weather in this post here.

SEVERE WEATHER:  The chase enthusiasts are primed and ready, as the next 48 hours are dominated by a pretty substantial severe weather threat across the Plains.  We have a chance to get in on the action as well to start the new work week.  Here's the Storm Prediction Center's maps for the next three days:

SPC Severe Weather Risk - Today
SPC Severe Weather Risk - Sunday
SPC Severe Weather Risk - Monday

Wind and hail are the primary threats today, though there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado across west-central Oklahoma and Kansas.  Tomorrow the whole deal moves east a bit, and the threat shifts to more tornadic weather, across eastern Kansas and into Missouri, and east-central Oklahoma.

Day three, we get in on the action, with a "slight" risk of severe weather extending up into Michigan.  The threat way up here, well-removed from the main area of instability should be damaging wind and perhaps some larger hail.  We'll keep an eye on it all for you as the situation evolves.

RAIN:  We'll see plenty of rain over the next seven days according to the forecast data at hand right now.  Have a look at the maps from the Weather Prediction Center:

Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Rain Forecast, valid through 8 AM Saturday May 25th
You see bullseyes of nearly two and a half inches of rain over the next week just off to the north, and I don't see where that is overdone this go-round.  Dew point readings forecast to be in the 60's suggest enough instability for at least some scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday, and we keep the rain chances up until Thursday.

I will have the full forecast for you up later on today.

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