Good Morning!
MIKE, YOU WERE WRONG. WHAT HAPPENED?: In a nutshell, the strong and marginally severe showers and thunderstorms that traveled across the northern half of the Lower Peninsula yesterday morning acted like a big blender and mixed the air out so thoroughly, that even with daytime heating yesterday, it wouldn't destabilize enough a second time to kick off fresh showers and storms in the same area. Therefore, the path of least resistance, and juicier air for storms to munch on, was basically along and south of a line from basically Flint to Ludington. When the air got warm enough to pop through what capping their was earlier in the day, off to the races we went.
I did see that the Storm Prediction Center added a "marginal" risk for severe weather later on in the day, just before lunchtime, but I couldn't communicate that to you guys because I was working and didn't have access to a computer that would allow me to post. I'll check and see if there are any workarounds for that. Sorry guys. I'll work harder for you next trip. Speaking of...
SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY: We note this morning that the "marginal" risk area is gone with the new 8 AM outlook from SPC. Just general thunderstorms expected in the area at this point, as there's not any really organized forcing for ascent in Michigan. That being said, I still think that there is enough around for some scattered PM showers and a pop-up storm or two. Less organization than yesterday, and less likelihood of severe. Some high winds, pushing severe limits are possible if a storm can pop up and get rolling. Days 2 and 3 of the severe outlook keep everything confined to the northern Plains and northern Rockies.
BIG PICTURE: We'll keep the summer-like stuff around for awhile yet, Labor Day looks to be seasonably warm. Gentle ridging is in place over most of the US and will remain in place through the holiday weekend. All of the disturbances and such that cause your rain are being routed north, currently, though the jet stream is close enough that a subtle shift south does put Michigan in play for weather as one of those approaches. We also note that there is some heavier rain activity expected south and west of Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Expect warm to very warm conditions, with the chance of an isolated shower or storm today and tomorrow. Those rain chances diminish as we get toward Sunday. That will be the warmest day of the holiday weekend, with readings in the upper 80's and plenty of sunshine. Labor I expect to be a few degrees cooler, and if you have any barbecues or anything like that planned out, be prepared to dodge a shower or two in the afternoon and expect increasing clouds as the day wears on.
LOOKING AHEAD: Wednesday, a weak upper disturbance works through, touching off some showers and perhaps the odd thunderstorm. After that, the area should be relatively rain-free until Sunday the 13th, with temperatures moderating nicely. From Wednesday on, expect readings to stay in the 70's, with the chance of not getting out of the 60's starting from the 13th.
Here's the forecast:
Today - A mix of clouds and sunshine with just the mention of a stray PM shower or storm, high 84.
Tonight - Variable clouds, we leave in that mention of a shower or storm early, then drying out, lows roll back to near 63.
Saturday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, some spots may see a brief PM shower, warmer, high 87.
Saturday Night - More stars than clouds, a touch warmer than the previous night, lows near 67.
Sunday - Mainly sunny with just a passing cloud, warmer still, high 90.
Labor Day - Blended sunshine, clouds thicken a bit during the afternoon, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or lonely storm, cooler, high 84.
Tuesday - Becoming mainly cloudy, scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms expected, high 82. Any one spot sees about a 4 in 10 crack at rain.
Wednesday - Continued mainly cloudy, perhaps few peeks of sunshine, a 50/50 chance of showers and a storm or two, cooler. High 74.
Thursday - Some clearing, cooler. High 71.
There's a look at your forecast, I hope you have a great day! Blessings.
Friday, September 4, 2015
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Damp & Muggy...
Good Morning!
Warm and muggy today with some scattered PM showers and storms are the expected game plan. We see a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing in the northern half of the mitten right now, affecting places such as Cadillac, Traverse City, and Grayling. Here's the radar:
Let's take a closer at it for you.
TROUGH WEST, RIDGE EAST: We note a trough in the western part of the US, with ridging from the southern Great Plains all the way north into New York state. While the Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect severe weather anywhere in the lower 48 today, those PM storms could get rowdy, with some straight line wind that could cause minor damage. Here's a look at today's risk map:
Now tomorrow and Saturday, we note that SPC does add a marginal risk for severe to the mix, in the northern Great Plains and Rockies.
CONTINUED STEAMY: Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, pumping plenty of moisture into the area to fuel showers and and storms as the day progresses and we get the normal warm season daytime heating. These will NOT totally wash out anything you might have on the slate - JV football for example, but just know that some spots will see some rain and even some storms that could temporarily halt those activities until the storms leave the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's aren't as hot as in past days, but dew point values in the upper 60's and lower 70's will give you all you need for heat index values near 90 or better and those PM storms.
SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Taking a look at the next five days, we'll pick up some rain around the area, with a 1.4" bullseye over the Flint area, and South Central Michigan expected to pick up about one and a quarter inches of rain over the same period. This suggests that our afternoons and evenings will see those periods of scattered PM showers and storms I alluded to above. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's map which shows what's on tap in better detail.
LOOKING AHEAD: No real change in the pattern until next week, when the trough that is currently parked over the western third of the US finally starts nosing into the Great Lakes, bringing a change in wind direction, allowing drier and cooler air from the Pacific and Canada to work into the area and bring down dew point values, and pushing daytime highs back into the lower 80's. I expect that change to start being felt next Tuesday/Wednesday. I see that the GFS computer forecast model is only suggesting a high of 70 a week from today! That'll feel more seasonable, as we are into Meteorological Fall.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:
Today - Some clouds in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. We don't anticipate any severe, however, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with any storm. High 86. Wind SW 3-6 MPH.
Tonight - A few passing showers or storm early, these diminish as the night wears on, then mainly cloudy with lows near 66. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Friday - Lingering clouds and perhaps a quick hit of a shower or a roaming thunderstorm, a bit cooler, high 81. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Saturday - Partly sunny, an afternoon pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 84.
Sunday - Mixed sunshine, a bit warmer still, high 86.
Labor Day - Mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, high 87.
Tuesday - Sunny and beautiful a touch less humid, high 83.
Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or two, high 80.
I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Warm and muggy today with some scattered PM showers and storms are the expected game plan. We see a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing in the northern half of the mitten right now, affecting places such as Cadillac, Traverse City, and Grayling. Here's the radar:
Let's take a closer at it for you.
TROUGH WEST, RIDGE EAST: We note a trough in the western part of the US, with ridging from the southern Great Plains all the way north into New York state. While the Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect severe weather anywhere in the lower 48 today, those PM storms could get rowdy, with some straight line wind that could cause minor damage. Here's a look at today's risk map:
Now tomorrow and Saturday, we note that SPC does add a marginal risk for severe to the mix, in the northern Great Plains and Rockies.
CONTINUED STEAMY: Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, pumping plenty of moisture into the area to fuel showers and and storms as the day progresses and we get the normal warm season daytime heating. These will NOT totally wash out anything you might have on the slate - JV football for example, but just know that some spots will see some rain and even some storms that could temporarily halt those activities until the storms leave the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's aren't as hot as in past days, but dew point values in the upper 60's and lower 70's will give you all you need for heat index values near 90 or better and those PM storms.
SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Taking a look at the next five days, we'll pick up some rain around the area, with a 1.4" bullseye over the Flint area, and South Central Michigan expected to pick up about one and a quarter inches of rain over the same period. This suggests that our afternoons and evenings will see those periods of scattered PM showers and storms I alluded to above. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's map which shows what's on tap in better detail.
LOOKING AHEAD: No real change in the pattern until next week, when the trough that is currently parked over the western third of the US finally starts nosing into the Great Lakes, bringing a change in wind direction, allowing drier and cooler air from the Pacific and Canada to work into the area and bring down dew point values, and pushing daytime highs back into the lower 80's. I expect that change to start being felt next Tuesday/Wednesday. I see that the GFS computer forecast model is only suggesting a high of 70 a week from today! That'll feel more seasonable, as we are into Meteorological Fall.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:
Today - Some clouds in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. We don't anticipate any severe, however, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with any storm. High 86. Wind SW 3-6 MPH.
Tonight - A few passing showers or storm early, these diminish as the night wears on, then mainly cloudy with lows near 66. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Friday - Lingering clouds and perhaps a quick hit of a shower or a roaming thunderstorm, a bit cooler, high 81. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Saturday - Partly sunny, an afternoon pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 84.
Sunday - Mixed sunshine, a bit warmer still, high 86.
Labor Day - Mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, high 87.
Tuesday - Sunny and beautiful a touch less humid, high 83.
Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or two, high 80.
I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Cool It Down...
Good Morning!
Changes definitely on the way weather wise for Michigan, let's dive in and have a look at it all.
SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE: The Storm Prediction Center has identified Michigan in a standard "slight" risk area for severe storms this afternoon. These storms will be forming ahead of the trough that is out by the Iowa/Illinois border this morning. While we don't expect a robust or widespread threat, just understand that there could be a few strong to severe storms with strong straight-line winds and heavy rains.
TEMPERATURES CHANGING: As things progress today and into tonight/tomorrow, I fully expect that on the back side of these storms, the cooler, drier air that has dropped temperatures and humidity elsewhere will do the same here. That Canadian air will feel refreshing, shades of Autumn in the air for sure! Readings don't get out of the 70's tomorrow or Friday! Today I'm expecting 83 for the high in Jackson, 85 in Ann Arbor, and 84 in Lansing.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity...
Today - Periods of clouds and sunshine with increasing cloudiness as the day progresses, developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe. High 83.
Tonight - Rain tapers off as the night progresses, cooler, low 63.
I'll have a detailed forecast for you this evening!
Changes definitely on the way weather wise for Michigan, let's dive in and have a look at it all.
SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE: The Storm Prediction Center has identified Michigan in a standard "slight" risk area for severe storms this afternoon. These storms will be forming ahead of the trough that is out by the Iowa/Illinois border this morning. While we don't expect a robust or widespread threat, just understand that there could be a few strong to severe storms with strong straight-line winds and heavy rains.
TEMPERATURES CHANGING: As things progress today and into tonight/tomorrow, I fully expect that on the back side of these storms, the cooler, drier air that has dropped temperatures and humidity elsewhere will do the same here. That Canadian air will feel refreshing, shades of Autumn in the air for sure! Readings don't get out of the 70's tomorrow or Friday! Today I'm expecting 83 for the high in Jackson, 85 in Ann Arbor, and 84 in Lansing.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity...
Today - Periods of clouds and sunshine with increasing cloudiness as the day progresses, developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe. High 83.
Tonight - Rain tapers off as the night progresses, cooler, low 63.
I'll have a detailed forecast for you this evening!
Monday, August 17, 2015
Storms Afoot....
Good Evening,
Hit and miss storms, and other kinds of mischief in Michigan this evening, we'll keep that around and bump up the chances of some severe weather working into the area for Wednesday. Let's take a closer look:
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA: We note scattered showers and some storms in the area, especially Branch County, impacting Coldwater. We'll see additional showers and a few more storms rolling through during the overnight hours, but I expect at least a break sometime after midnight. Here's the current NEXRAD from Grand Rapids:
Expect more storms to enter SOuth Central Michigan from the southeast, at least until we get the air cooler and more stable.
A SEVERE RISK DAY 3: The Storm Prediction Center has identified lower Michigan in the standard slight risk for severe storms on Wednesday. We expect a vigorous system coming out of the Plains tomorrow and trekking into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Initial data suggests that the primary threats will be straight line winds and perhaps a bit of hail. We'll refine that over the next 24-30 hours.
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SETUP: The next few days will see fairly changeable weather as far as from sun to stormy, as a strong trough drops into the central third of the US. What that means for us? Out ahead of a bona-fide low, some fairly vigorous showers and storms will develop. Both tomorrow and Wednesday will see the chance of showers and a storm or two, the better bet for the storms will be Wednesday.
I will have more on this after some fresh data shows up.
Hit and miss storms, and other kinds of mischief in Michigan this evening, we'll keep that around and bump up the chances of some severe weather working into the area for Wednesday. Let's take a closer look:
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA: We note scattered showers and some storms in the area, especially Branch County, impacting Coldwater. We'll see additional showers and a few more storms rolling through during the overnight hours, but I expect at least a break sometime after midnight. Here's the current NEXRAD from Grand Rapids:
Expect more storms to enter SOuth Central Michigan from the southeast, at least until we get the air cooler and more stable.
A SEVERE RISK DAY 3: The Storm Prediction Center has identified lower Michigan in the standard slight risk for severe storms on Wednesday. We expect a vigorous system coming out of the Plains tomorrow and trekking into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Initial data suggests that the primary threats will be straight line winds and perhaps a bit of hail. We'll refine that over the next 24-30 hours.
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SETUP: The next few days will see fairly changeable weather as far as from sun to stormy, as a strong trough drops into the central third of the US. What that means for us? Out ahead of a bona-fide low, some fairly vigorous showers and storms will develop. Both tomorrow and Wednesday will see the chance of showers and a storm or two, the better bet for the storms will be Wednesday.
I will have more on this after some fresh data shows up.
Monday, August 3, 2015
Severe Weather Update - Final
Good Evening.
The severe weather threat is winding down for South Central Michigan as the line of storms continues to move south into Indiana and Ohio. We note that a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is still up for Washtenaw County. I expect that to either expire on time or NWS Detroit to pull the plug on it shortly. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lenawee County will continue until it's expiry time, and the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Branch and Hillsdale Counties is set to expire at 12:30 AM EDT. As the line moves south, the warnings will move along them.
Behind the line of storms, rain will continue, heavy at times, but it will be much cooler and humidity levels will drop. Readings tonight will roll back to the low 60's across the area with variably cloudy skies and showers will taper off after about 2 AM across the area.
Have a great evening!
The severe weather threat is winding down for South Central Michigan as the line of storms continues to move south into Indiana and Ohio. We note that a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is still up for Washtenaw County. I expect that to either expire on time or NWS Detroit to pull the plug on it shortly. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lenawee County will continue until it's expiry time, and the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Branch and Hillsdale Counties is set to expire at 12:30 AM EDT. As the line moves south, the warnings will move along them.
Behind the line of storms, rain will continue, heavy at times, but it will be much cooler and humidity levels will drop. Readings tonight will roll back to the low 60's across the area with variably cloudy skies and showers will taper off after about 2 AM across the area.
Have a great evening!
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