Forecast Update - 6/15/16 8:30 PM

Good Evening!

As the sun is about gone in South Central Michigan, the main reason for this post is to let you know that the main event as far as any severe weather seems to have delayed in arrival.  We now anticipate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to come in through the overnight tonight.  While I don't expect any tornado issues, I do suspect that we will see some heavy rain, gusty winds, and marginally severe hail.

UPDATED SPC OUTLOOK:  Here's a look at the latest map from the Storm Prediction Center.  This map is good through 8 AM tomorrow morning...

As you can see, the "slight" risk has been pulled out of South Central Michigan, being replaced with a "marginal" risk.  The "slight" risk is confined to the lake shore.  But we need to remember that severe weather could care less about lines drawn on a map, so don't be shocked to see some strong to severe storms in this area.

NIGHTTIME STORM MISCHIEF:  Based on the forecast data, it appears that we will see the strong to severe stuff in the area after midnight.  Here's a look at the HRRR Model FutureCast at 3 AM EDT...

If this verifies, then the North Zone better be ready for a cluster of rowdy thunderstorms to move through.  Those could get as far south as the I-94 corridor, so be on your guard as you go to bed tonight.  If a warning pops up for your area, have a good way to get the warning and know in advance how you'll react to it.

Here's the forecast:

Tonight - Cloudy, muggy.  Developing showers and thunderstorms after midnight, some locally severe with heavy rain, high wind, and small hail.  Lows near 65.

Thursday - Lingering showers and storms to start the day, then clearing and cooler with lower humidity as the upper trough and associated front move away.  High 77.

Thursday Night - Starry and seasonable, lows roll back to 58.

Friday - Sunny and splendid, warming back to average temperature levels.  High 83.

Saturday - Continued clear and warm.  High 85.

Sunday - Another winner - abundant sunshine and warm, a bit more humid.  High 86.

Monday - Mainly sunny skies in the morning.  Some afternoon clouds and just the mention of a stray shower or a pop-up PM thunderstorm.  High 83.

Tuesday - Sunshine returns, warm.  High 84.

There's a look at your update and the full six-day outlook.  I hope that you have a great evening!

Stormy Hump Day On Tap...

Good Evening!

I have been approached by a few readers asking about the severe weather threat for tomorrow.  Well, let's talk about that and the forecast.

LESS SEVERE THAN BEFORE:  The good news is that the Storm Prediction Center has taken the "enhanced" risk for severe storms out of the picture.  We have just the standard "slight" risk over South Central Michigan right now, and I expect things to remain that for tomorrow.  The tornado threat, while not a zero proposition, has dropped quite a bit, and conditions are tending to favor more of a damaging straight-line wind and heavy rain event.  We might also see some marginally severe hail as well.  Here's the SPC map for tomorrow:

As you see, all of lower Michigan south of a line from roughly Manistee to Port Huron is in play for severe weather tomorrow.

WHAT WILL WE HAVE:  We'll see mainly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, with readings from 77-81 depending on your location.  It will be couple of degrees cooler than that where rain falls.  There will be plenty of moisture for storms to work on, as I expect dew point values in the 60's which will make it feel warmer than it is.  I would not be shocked in the least to see at least a couple of early morning thunderstorms as well.  A trough coming out of the middle third of the US will be responsible for the storms.

SEASONABLY WARM:  Another bit of good news is that we don't get oppressively hot, with the average temperature being 81, and readings staying within arm's reach of that until Sunday, when I expect 88 for the high, and some spots might touch 90.  After we get through tomorrow and Thursday, sunshine in abundance will return to the area.

RAIN BREAK AFTER THURSDAY:  Here's the 5 day precipitation forecast for you from the WPC:

You see here a bullseye of about 1.9" of rain up near Ludington, and closer to home, between a quarter and about three-quarters of an inch.from US-127 west will see the higher amounts of rain the next few days, with the bulk of that in the next 48 hours.

Here's the forecast:

Today - A mix of sun and clouds, then mainly cloudy skies with developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe.  High 80.

Tonight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, some could be strong.  Lows near 68.

Thursday - Some broken sunshine, then cloudy with re-developing showers and thunderstorms.  High only 76.

Friday - Mainly sunny and pleasant, high 81.

Saturday - More sunshine, some passing clouds and warmer still, high 83.

Sunday - Plenty of sun and very warm.  High 87.

There's your summary.  We'll have more for you later.

Comfy & Summery...

Good Afternoon!

Plenty of warm weather to go around today, but not as hot as it has been.  Let's see what's going on right now.

NOT TOO BAD NOW:  Quite a bit cooler than what we have had in past days.  Most stations checking on with clear skies and readings in the mid to upper 70's...

All the winds are northerly.  Lansing 77; Mason 74; Battle Creek 75, Marshall, 77; Jackson 76; Ann Arbor 76; Coldwater & Hillsdale 76; Adrian 77.  Let's take a look and see what has changed.

BACK OF THE RIDGE:  Right now we are in cool Canadian air that is coming down the back of the ridge that has set up over much of the US.  Underneath that, readings are about 15 degrees warmer, and we are starting to see showers and thunderstorms popping...

Just look at some of those readings!  In Illinois, the SPI is Springfield, and that's 92 degrees over a 73 dew point, which is good for a heat index of 101!  In Iowa, DSM is Des Moines, 92 degrees over a dew point of 68.  That heat index is 96.  Just miserable.  We do note on this picture some thunderstorms starting to fire in South Central Illinois.  I don't anticipate us having to deal with them though.

SOME SCATTERED STARTING TUESDAY:  The next few days look to be your typical warm weather pattern.  Some sunshine in the morning, with clouds developing and increasing during the afternoon, and some PM showers or thunderstorms as a result.  We'll have to bump up the rain chances through the middle of the week though.  Each day Tuesday through Thursday will see at least an even money chance of showers and thunder.  I don't expect any severe at this time, but you should always expect the unexpected when it comes to warm season storms!

If we take a look at this GFS Forecast model FutureCast, we see that some showers and such are in the cards for the south zone of the blog Tuesday afternoon.  We'll keep that chance around during the afternoon and evening hours each day thru Thursday, but I do think we see a break in the rains after dark when everything cools off and the atmosphere stabilizes again in the absence of heating.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  We'll see seasonable temperatures as the ridge in the middle third of the country stays more or less put, this will give us the chance of showers and thunderstorms through the middle part of the week, then the weekend is looking mainly sunny, with temperatures staying right around average.

Forecast:

Tonight - Clear and a bit chilly, lows near 46.

Monday - Sunny and splendid, mild with low humidity.  Temperatures near 77.

Monday Night - Increasing clouds, we can't rule a shower or clap of thunder during.  Lows near 60.

Tuesday - AM sunshine, periods of showers or a thunderstorm during the afternoon.  High 79.

Wednesday - Overcast.  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  High 82.

Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy with some scattered showers or a thunderstorm.  High 79.

Friday - Sunny and seasonable.  High 80.

Saturday - More sunshine, continued pleasant.  High 81.

There's your forecast for the next six days.  I hope that you have a great day!

Some Severe Possible

Good Morning!

Heads up today, we have a "marginal" risk of severe weather in lower Michigan today.  Let's look at the map from the Storm Prediction Center...

As you can see, just across the lake, a "slight" risk of severe storms that goes from north of Milwaukee. down into Chicago, down toward Bloomington-Normal and Springfield.  For us, the marginal risk roughly follows I-96 from west to east.

We don't expect any tornadic weather, but be ready for some hail and straight-line wind damage as the primary modes of severe.

Cloudy skies today, with periods of showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe.  High 72.

Tonight - Clouds, storms tapering off to the occasional shower.  Low 48.

Another Winner, Then Cooler...

Good Evening!

Another beautiful day in the area, with the warmest temperatures of the Spring being posted so far.  Looking around the area right now, we see mid to upper 70's across the board with clear skies.  Let's talk about what's on tap.

MORE FULL-ON SPRING WEATHER:  We'll keep the pattern that we have been in going for a few more days.  The upper air pattern is set up in what's called an Omega Block right now.  Let's look at it:

The ridge is stuck in a traffic jam thanks to the upper low well offshore in the Atlantic.  Until that thing starts moving, the pattern can't progress.  The mild southerly flow under the ridge will persist for a bit longer yet, and the low that dropped more serious snows out west will stay over that part of the world, keeping them cold and cloudy.  Result for Michigan?  More great weather!

ANOTHER WARM ONE TOMORROW:  With the ridge still in place, I fully expect a repeat of today, with sunshine and readings back up into the upper 70's lower 80's.  Just the slightest hint of an upper wave tries to do a ridge runner bit and scoot around the periphery of the ridge, but with no dynamic support to start anything, maybe just a couple of PM clouds in the area and that's about it.  Lows only roll back to the mid 50's tomorrow night.

COOL IT OFF JUST A BIT:  We'll see just the beginnings of some movement in the big pattern I showed you above.  The ridge manages to elbow east a bit, turning our winds more westerly and dropping the temperatures back to something more seasonable.  You can expect readings to hold in the 60's Tuesday, with some passing clouds, and maybe a lonely shower somewhere.  I don't see any big headaches right now though.  Keep the 60's in the area through Wednesday, but then we see a change as the upper pattern finally resets...

WET THURSDAY?:  The system that unloaded snow in the Rockies finally gets to move into the Midwest on Thursday, as the upper ridging breaks down some and the flow creeps along in zonal fashion.  The more direct west to east winds bring that system in with some scattered to even numerous showers on Wednesday, temperatures do hold in the 60's until the frontal boundary passes through.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Get the system through and out on Friday, with cooler readings topping out at 59.  Then we see the flow turn more southerly again, pushing our temperatures back up into the 68-71 range for Sunday, with a high of 61 for Saturday.  I really think you'll be in good shape to plan outdoor activity this weekend, just have the jacket or hoodie in the car for early in the day.

I hope that you have a great night and a great Monday tomorrow!