As the sun is about gone in South Central Michigan, the main reason for this post is to let you know that the main event as far as any severe weather seems to have delayed in arrival. We now anticipate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to come in through the overnight tonight. While I don't expect any tornado issues, I do suspect that we will see some heavy rain, gusty winds, and marginally severe hail.
UPDATED SPC OUTLOOK: Here's a look at the latest map from the Storm Prediction Center. This map is good through 8 AM tomorrow morning...
As you can see, the "slight" risk has been pulled out of South Central Michigan, being replaced with a "marginal" risk. The "slight" risk is confined to the lake shore. But we need to remember that severe weather could care less about lines drawn on a map, so don't be shocked to see some strong to severe storms in this area.
NIGHTTIME STORM MISCHIEF: Based on the forecast data, it appears that we will see the strong to severe stuff in the area after midnight. Here's a look at the HRRR Model FutureCast at 3 AM EDT...
If this verifies, then the North Zone better be ready for a cluster of rowdy thunderstorms to move through. Those could get as far south as the I-94 corridor, so be on your guard as you go to bed tonight. If a warning pops up for your area, have a good way to get the warning and know in advance how you'll react to it.
Here's the forecast:
Tonight - Cloudy, muggy. Developing showers and thunderstorms after midnight, some locally severe with heavy rain, high wind, and small hail. Lows near 65.
Thursday - Lingering showers and storms to start the day, then clearing and cooler with lower humidity as the upper trough and associated front move away. High 77.
Thursday Night - Starry and seasonable, lows roll back to 58.
Friday - Sunny and splendid, warming back to average temperature levels. High 83.
Saturday - Continued clear and warm. High 85.
Sunday - Another winner - abundant sunshine and warm, a bit more humid. High 86.
Monday - Mainly sunny skies in the morning. Some afternoon clouds and just the mention of a stray shower or a pop-up PM thunderstorm. High 83.
Tuesday - Sunshine returns, warm. High 84.
There's a look at your update and the full six-day outlook. I hope that you have a great evening!
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