Stormy Hump Day On Tap...

Good Evening!

I have been approached by a few readers asking about the severe weather threat for tomorrow.  Well, let's talk about that and the forecast.

LESS SEVERE THAN BEFORE:  The good news is that the Storm Prediction Center has taken the "enhanced" risk for severe storms out of the picture.  We have just the standard "slight" risk over South Central Michigan right now, and I expect things to remain that for tomorrow.  The tornado threat, while not a zero proposition, has dropped quite a bit, and conditions are tending to favor more of a damaging straight-line wind and heavy rain event.  We might also see some marginally severe hail as well.  Here's the SPC map for tomorrow:

As you see, all of lower Michigan south of a line from roughly Manistee to Port Huron is in play for severe weather tomorrow.

WHAT WILL WE HAVE:  We'll see mainly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, with readings from 77-81 depending on your location.  It will be couple of degrees cooler than that where rain falls.  There will be plenty of moisture for storms to work on, as I expect dew point values in the 60's which will make it feel warmer than it is.  I would not be shocked in the least to see at least a couple of early morning thunderstorms as well.  A trough coming out of the middle third of the US will be responsible for the storms.

SEASONABLY WARM:  Another bit of good news is that we don't get oppressively hot, with the average temperature being 81, and readings staying within arm's reach of that until Sunday, when I expect 88 for the high, and some spots might touch 90.  After we get through tomorrow and Thursday, sunshine in abundance will return to the area.

RAIN BREAK AFTER THURSDAY:  Here's the 5 day precipitation forecast for you from the WPC:

You see here a bullseye of about 1.9" of rain up near Ludington, and closer to home, between a quarter and about three-quarters of an inch.from US-127 west will see the higher amounts of rain the next few days, with the bulk of that in the next 48 hours.

Here's the forecast:

Today - A mix of sun and clouds, then mainly cloudy skies with developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe.  High 80.

Tonight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, some could be strong.  Lows near 68.

Thursday - Some broken sunshine, then cloudy with re-developing showers and thunderstorms.  High only 76.

Friday - Mainly sunny and pleasant, high 81.

Saturday - More sunshine, some passing clouds and warmer still, high 83.

Sunday - Plenty of sun and very warm.  High 87.

There's your summary.  We'll have more for you later.