Maybe Some Stormy Weather....

Good Morning!

Another day with plenty to talk about, this time in our own back yard, so let's get prepped and take a dive!

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MICHIGAN:  The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of lower Michigan into the baseline "slight" risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Have a look at this map that I have marked up for you:

As you can see, I have outlined the apparent bullseye where any severe weather should likely pop first today.  Model forecast data showed me two spots where the action would likely be.  I have drawn the bubble to cover them both.  That being said, it appears the areas on the northwest side of Detroit and up into the Flint/Bay City/Saginaw area have the most need to keep their guard up.  Data indicates surface based CAPE (the amount of energy stored in the air that acts as a battery for thunderstorms) as high as 1500 joules of energy - that's enough to knock you around a bit!  The charge in the atmosphere will be from some clearing off to the south that will be working in over the next few hours.  This will heat up things and create sufficient instability in the air to kick off storms later on.

I expect that straight line winds and some hail would be the most likely suspects for damage caused in the area, because the storms will likely end up as an unruly mob or semi-organized line after popping up in cellular fashion.  That being said, there's nothing preventing a small spin-up twister from occurring within a given storm.  Best estimate of when all this will happen is anytime after about 2 PM EDT, until about 11 PM tonight.  I'll be working my straight job, but I will do my best to keep you apprised of watch/warning information if the need arises, and I can update this later today.

Outside the dashed bubble, I expect more "Plain Jane" style thunderstorms, these could have brief downpours and gusty winds.  Speaking of rain, let's look at...

HOW MUCH RAIN CAN WE EXPECT THE NEXT FEW DAYS?:  Not as much as initially expected, believe it or not.  The Weather Prediction Center has backed off of the rain amounts in this part of Michigan, pushing the heavier stuff further north and off to the east.  Here's the map for the next seven days, taking us through 8 AM next Tuesday morning...

Definitely not the flooding look we had going on as recently as yesterday!  That being said, I do expect periods of scattered rain showers each day through Thursday after we get through this storm bit today.

STAYING COOL OR WARMING?:  I can say a bit of both, and be reasonably accurate.  Today should be the warmest of the next six or so, with readings pushing 70.  After we get the frontal system through tomorrow, we drop readings back into the mid 50's and keep them there through the weekend.  It will feel a touch cooler than the forecast high each day, owing to breezy conditions, and that wind will be a west-northwest wind starting Thursday.  Seasonal average is right around 65 in the area, and most reporting stations will be there or a bit above today and tomorrow, then as much as 10 degrees or better below that for the balance of the week.  Here's a look at the current temperatures:

And here's a look at the satellite/radar composite image.

Now for the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Vandercook Lake:

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings!

Severe Weather Possible Today...

Good Morning!

I'm building the forecast as we speak, but to let you know, the Storm Prediction Center has changed the map from last night.  As advertised if you read my discussion yesterday, SPC has expanded the slight risk area for severe weather today.  Here's a detailed look at the map:

Be close to a good source of warning information today, especially after 2 PM this afternoon.  I am building the forecast and will talk about this in more depth there.

More to come...

Spring In Full Swing (Or Full Wring - Rain On Tap)...

Good Morning!

Plenty to talk about today weather-wise, so we'll dive right into it.

PRAY FOR VILONIA, ARKANSAS:  That town had just rebuilt from damage that occurred three years ago, when one of the 2011 Super Outbreak tornadoes flattened it.  Last night, that town was scored on once again.  A small town of about 3500 people just north of Little Rock appears to be largely destroyed after a tornado tore it up again last night.  No final numbers yet on fatalities and such, however based on the few images I have seen in the press, plus the scanner traffic I was listening to, along with the radar signatures I saw, I will speculate that it will be rated at least an EF-3.  (Disclaimer:  I am not yet a degreed meteorologist, and I have not seen any damage images beyond what's in the media and on Twitter.  The rating comment is my opinion only and shouldn't be taken to the bank.)  Say a prayer in whatever tradition you're used to for those folks as they pick up the pieces again.

SEVERE WEATHER, ROUND TWO:  The stormy weather isn't over yet, as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a "moderate" risk for severe weather, this time through Dixie Alley and up into central Tennessee.  Have a look at the map from the SPC:

Day 1 Severe Risk

Inside the moderate risk area is a better than 1 in 10 shot at a tornado of EF-2 strength or higher, and hail 2" in diameter or better.  The good news for us here in Michigan, is our forecast includes just the mention of some Plain Jane thunderstorms, without all the fuss and such of severe storms.  We will have wind and rain issues today though, more on that later.  Tomorrow, the southeastern corner of the state is tossed into the basic "slight" risk of severe weather.  Here's that map:

Day 2 Severe Risk

For now, on Tuesday, parts of South Central Michigan are in play from the SPC standpoint, but it's too early to tell if that holds.  We need to get through the next 18 hours or so before we get a really solid idea.  For my money, I think the risk will still be there tomorrow, but the area included will change and possibly expand a little.  Future model runs will flesh out the details, but I have a feeling that the low pressure center may linger out west a bit longer than we're seeing now, keeping the risk here.

RAINS ARE A'COMIN:  Here's a look at the Tru-Track Doppler Satellite/Radar composite image, showing a band of showers tracking almost due north, with the heaviest activity stretching from Coldwater to South Haven, then northwest across the lake to Milwaukee.  We'll keep rain in the forecast for a good chunk of the week I'm afraid, with a low that is currently parked on the Iowa/Nebraska border creeping along to the northeast ever so slowly.  Here's a look at the map:

As it spins counter-clockwise, it pulls warmer, moister air up from the Gulf of Mexico, setting the stage for showers and a few thunderstorms.  Forecast models are saying we also cut off a second low pressure center right on the Michigan/Ohio line at 8 AM tomorrow, and the localized unstable air connected with that feature will gift you the lifting mechanism needed to fire off showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Even if we don't get that second low to actually set up as advertised, rain will be plentiful this next several days.  Here's a look at the Weather Prediction Center 5 Day map:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Thru 8 AM Saturday

This is a very wet look, with two inches or better of rain expected between now and the weekend!  Don't expect much sunshine during this week either.  Tuesday and Thursday look to have the best shots at some breaks in the clouds for some sunshine, but gray skies are the rule this trip, rather than the exception.  At least the rains tomorrow will be fairly warm.

WINDY, WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY:  Today we have a High Wind Advisory to contend with.  East winds gusting to 45 MPH will make driving large bulky vehicles on north/south roads an adventure.  Make sure you secure anything you don't want to go looking for or have to clean up between now and tomorrow morning.  All that wind will usher in above average readings on the thermometer for at least a couple of days!  Average is right around 65 in the south zone, and readings in some spots could make it into the lower or even middle 70's.  That being said, I'm predicting 69 for Jackson and vicinity.  North zone, you may see a 70 or two as well, though your average readings are a couple of degrees cooler.  As we get into mid-week, we'll drop the mercury  back into the 50's after the cold front gets through here on Wednesday.  Readings start to climb again toward the seasonal average of 65 in time for the weekend, along with some sunshine!

Here's a look at current temperatures around the US...

And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

And here's the extended outlook...

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Nice Weekend - Stormy Week Ahead....

Good Evening!

After a damp and dreary day thru the early afternoon, the clouds moved off, sunshine returned, and temperatures rebounded, with most areas checking in with readings in the mid to upper 50's.  We'll have a pleasant, albeit cool weekend in the cards, then things change early next week as our next weather maker gets us wet Monday, and wreaks havoc well to the south and west.  Let's take a look and see what's running under the hood...

CLEAR SKIES AND A TOUCH CHILLY:  We'll see plenty of sunshine with seasonable temperatures that are a bit on the cool side, but nothing that a light jacket can't take care of.  Average readings in the area are right around 64 degrees, and we stay under that through the weekend, into early next week.

WARMER AND WETTER MONDAY AND BEYOND:  A strong surface low sitting in the base of a negatively tilted trough centered over the northern Plains will be our next weather maker in the Monday /Tuesday time frame.  Combine that with some mild Gulf air riding into this neck of the woods on a low level jet streak (basically a tightly contained river of strong winds below about 8000 feet of altitude), and you get temperatures warming into the upper 60's and lower 70's - but you also get increased moisture.  Add a surface boundary or bona fide low pressure system to the mix as a lifting mechanism, and you set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms.  Let's talk a little more about that...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK - THE EXTENDED PLAY EDITION:  Here in Michigan, we'll sit this one out.  Our rough weather season typically doesn't truly crank up until mid-May.  If you have friends or family that live in a shaded area on the SPC maps, get hold to them and tell them they MUST stay weather aware this weekend.

As time permits, I'll be tweeting and talking and such on social media.  Here's the SPC maps defining the risk areas over the next 96 hours...

SPC Risk Saturday

SPC Risk Sunday

SPC Risk Monday/Tuesday

This weekend and early next week look to be a storm chaser's dream in southern and central Tornado Alley, then the show moves east into the ArkLaTex and Dixie Alley.  All signs currently point to a major severe weather outbreak, with all modes of severe Spring weather, including strong to violent tornadoes on the menu.  Have a look at this forecast map:

This is CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy.  This is a snapshot valid at 5 PM Tuesday evening. Think of the air as having battery power that can be tapped by storms that are able to form.  The higher the number, the more abundant the energy for storms to munch on, and the more intense they'll be. A value of 500 joules, like what we could have in Michigan by Tuesday evening will give you a few lower end storms here and there, not much to be concerned with aside from the obvious dangers of lightning and perhaps a gust or two of wind and some brief downpours.  Now look further south, down by the Gulf of Mexico!  Those forecast CAPE values off the GFS computer model show potential for bad business!  Anything over 1500-2000 joules (yellowish/orange shading), watch out!  That kind of air, given the right mix of moisture and instability, will spawn supercell thunderstorms that can threaten life and property with hail, wind, intense lightning, and in some cases, strong to violent tornadoes.

Again - other than some garden variety showers and storms early next week, I don't expect any truly dangerous weather in South Central Michigan, or Michigan period for that matter through at least Friday.

HERE'S THE SCOOP IN THE AREA:  A pleasant weekend with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the upper 50's - the sunshine could certainly help us into the lower 60's.  North and south zones of the blog should settle in the 55-62 degree range for highs, with lows as chilly as 34 at night.  Monday, we'll start working some clouds in, but raise temperatures as south winds push milder, moister air in here.  By Tuesday, ridging is in place and mild southwesterly breezes boost us to highs of 68-74 throughout the area on Tuesday - but that's also when we kick off some showers and thunderstorms.  As we work through the week, expect breaks in the precipitation, but I can't really take rain off the table until we get toward the weekend.

SPEAKING OF RAIN:  Have a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for the next five days regarding rain:

A little over an inch here - big numbers in the south - flooding is definitely a concern along with the severe weather!

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Grass Lake:

I hope you have a wonderful weekend!!!

Quick Look...

Good Afternoon!

Plenty of clear skies outside at this hour, but man it's chilly!  Upper 40's and low to mid 50's dominate the readings in the area.  We'll see some changes working through as we get closer to the weekend, with some showers and thunder possible on Friday.  Let's have a closer look!

CHANGES? YEP:  Our abundant sunshine will be replaced with clouds as we get closer to Friday.  Our next weather maker is currently sitting out in the Plains, but it will put it into gear and start moving closer to our area tomorrow.  Clouds will filter in during the afternoon and evening, and by daybreak Friday, I expect some showers and thunder.  We'll keep that around until Friday evening, then cooler with the clear skies that will work into the state behind it.  In fact, after Friday, you can expect a below normal temperature stretch of weather, with readings in Jackson down in the mid 50's.  Average this time of year is right around 63 degrees.

SEVERE WEATHER:  None expected in Michigan the next three days, but the Storm Prediction Center is sounding the alarm in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley for the weekend.  On Saturday and Sunday, SPC is forecasting severe weather from Texas up into Nebraska, and the whole system moves east from that point.  Here'a a look at the SPC risk map for Day 4 and beyond:

If you have friends/relatives in that part of the world, tell them to stay weather aware this weekend!!!

LOOKING AHEAD:  Cool and dry for the weekend, clouds increase on Monday, and we introduce a fresh chance at some showers into the mix for Tuesday.

Here's the forecast:

This afternoon:  Sunny, cool, high 53.  Wind NNW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight:  Clear, chilly.  Lows near 30, winds turn S 4-8 MPH.

Thursday:  Sunny to start, clouds start building after lunchtime.  High 63.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Friday:  Cloudy, periods of showers, a thunderstorm can't be ruled out.  High 65.

Saturday:  Clearing skies, cooler, high 55.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a wonderful day!