Another day with plenty to talk about, this time in our own back yard, so let's get prepped and take a dive!
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MICHIGAN: The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of lower Michigan into the baseline "slight" risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Have a look at this map that I have marked up for you:
As you can see, I have outlined the apparent bullseye where any severe weather should likely pop first today. Model forecast data showed me two spots where the action would likely be. I have drawn the bubble to cover them both. That being said, it appears the areas on the northwest side of Detroit and up into the Flint/Bay City/Saginaw area have the most need to keep their guard up. Data indicates surface based CAPE (the amount of energy stored in the air that acts as a battery for thunderstorms) as high as 1500 joules of energy - that's enough to knock you around a bit! The charge in the atmosphere will be from some clearing off to the south that will be working in over the next few hours. This will heat up things and create sufficient instability in the air to kick off storms later on.
I expect that straight line winds and some hail would be the most likely suspects for damage caused in the area, because the storms will likely end up as an unruly mob or semi-organized line after popping up in cellular fashion. That being said, there's nothing preventing a small spin-up twister from occurring within a given storm. Best estimate of when all this will happen is anytime after about 2 PM EDT, until about 11 PM tonight. I'll be working my straight job, but I will do my best to keep you apprised of watch/warning information if the need arises, and I can update this later today.
Outside the dashed bubble, I expect more "Plain Jane" style thunderstorms, these could have brief downpours and gusty winds. Speaking of rain, let's look at...
HOW MUCH RAIN CAN WE EXPECT THE NEXT FEW DAYS?: Not as much as initially expected, believe it or not. The Weather Prediction Center has backed off of the rain amounts in this part of Michigan, pushing the heavier stuff further north and off to the east. Here's the map for the next seven days, taking us through 8 AM next Tuesday morning...
Definitely not the flooding look we had going on as recently as yesterday! That being said, I do expect periods of scattered rain showers each day through Thursday after we get through this storm bit today.
STAYING COOL OR WARMING?: I can say a bit of both, and be reasonably accurate. Today should be the warmest of the next six or so, with readings pushing 70. After we get the frontal system through tomorrow, we drop readings back into the mid 50's and keep them there through the weekend. It will feel a touch cooler than the forecast high each day, owing to breezy conditions, and that wind will be a west-northwest wind starting Thursday. Seasonal average is right around 65 in the area, and most reporting stations will be there or a bit above today and tomorrow, then as much as 10 degrees or better below that for the balance of the week. Here's a look at the current temperatures:
And here's a look at the satellite/radar composite image.
Now for the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Vandercook Lake:
I hope you have a great day! Blessings!
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