Busted!!!

Good Evening!

With the severe weather threat winding down, time to see what's going to happen over the next few days, as well as recap the day's events.  Off we go!

BIG MISSES TODAY ON MY PART:  Two significant busts to own up to.  1)  I predicted a high of 68, and we made it all the way up to 75 this afternoon!  That's seven degrees off, and not any good to you!  I set my tolerance for error at 3 degrees and I was more than double that off the mark today.  I was not expecting the warm air to advect (filter) in as aggressively as it did!  This is where if I had the time to look at data more closely, I could have changed the forecast and salvaged it.  Clearly the low level jet was bringing plenty of warm air up this way!

2)  I predicted that storms would start to initiate on the wrong side of the state.  The forecast data I looked at showed the best afternoon CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in an area bounded roughly by Lansing, down to Hillsdale, over toward Monroe, then back up just west of the Detroit Metro and up to the Flint/Saginaw area.  The opposite happened, and we saw storms start down around Benton Harbor and track almost due north, which is rather unusual.  In fact, most of the storms today were a south-southwest to north-northeast deal.  I'll work harder for you in the future.

WHAT'S GOING ON NOW:  Still plenty of shower activity with an occasional storm or two to go around north of us.  Here in the blog area, all reporting stations are in the mid 50's...

We also note a dry slot with clearing skies off to the southwest of us, primarily over Indiana right now.  Just a few more scattered showers expected as the night progresses.

Have a great night!