Thursday, September 17, 2015

Details On The Weekend...

Good Evening!

As promised, I'm having a look at the forecast data to try to get some better grasp on what I expect to transpire in the next 24 to 36 hours.

YEP, THOSE SHOWERS ARE STILL THERE:  No question in my mind that we do pick up some showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The solution now seems to be maybe a stray shower or two between say, 8 and midnight, with heavier rains working into the area during the overnight and into early tomorrow morning.  My suspicion is that at least some of the heavier rain will stay north of Lansing.  I can't pinpoint it any more specifically for you then that, as there is still spread in the model solutions as to how hard of a left turn this disturbance makes as it heads up into Canada,  Let's call it a few isolated showers until about 10 PM, then scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a storm after that,  Lows will drop to about 58, a couple or 3 degrees lower where the rains are.

SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW, THEN MORE RAIN:  Forecast data for tomorrow is suggesting that we do see at least some peeks of sunshine, but I don't see sustained heating that will really juice up the atmosphere with the kind of energy you'd be looking for to get severe weather.  For sure we'll have some scattered showers and storms though, so keep the umbrella with you.  Some of these storms could be strong, or even marginally severe, with high winds and some downpours the primary threat.  Forecast models are discussing the idea of 72 for a high, but I think we back that off to 70.  This temperature forecast could easily bust though, depending on how much sun we see between visits from these systems,  Expect showers and storms back into the area by about 6 PM in scattered fashion, and don't be shocked to see some raindrops during the high school football tomorrow night.  You may even have to contend with a lightning delay depending on where you're at!

SOGGY START ON SATURDAY:  The showers and storms that roll in tomorrow night from the second system and the frontal boundary it will pull along with it will linger into Saturday.  I don't expect a full washout of the day on Saturday, but know that the AM will be fairly wet.  As you make it toward lunchtime, I anticipate the showers will taper off.

CLEARING SUNDAY:  The system that brings all of the storminess Friday into Saturday is nothing but a memory as we work with seasonably cool temperatures in the upper 60's.  Have a great night!

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