Stormy Then Splendid...

Good Morning!

Rain with a few thunderstorms working through the area at this hour as advertised.  We'll see plenty more in the next 36 hours or so, let's take a closer look.

RADAR CHECK:  A line of showers and storms is pushing through Jackson and South Central Michigan at this hour:

This is that lead impulse that I have been discussing with you the last few days.  It will continue to bring some shower and storm activity into the area as it works through.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR MOST SPOTS:  I expect the rains to impact the balance of the morning drive but be working out of here by say, 10 AM.  We'll keep clouds around the area in fits and starts, but I don't think any one area sees continuing rain right through the day.  In fact, some areas will have a bit of sunshine this morning, and all of that is setting the stage for what could happen this afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER:  The folks at the Storm Prediction Center have included pretty much all of Lower Michigan in a risk category for severe weather today.  Thankfully, it's the "marginal" risk as opposed to the "slight" that is present back to the south and west of us.  Here's a look at the maps:

SPC Day 1 Risk

SPC Day 2 Risk

Based on how things are expected to layout, Michigan is too far removed from the quality dynamic support that you need to kick off thunderstorms that are capable of spinning up a tornado.  That being said, expect storms that will have heavy downpours, marginally severe wind, and perhaps a bit of small to marginally severe hail.

REDEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS:  The first disturbance is gone for lunchtime.  I expect at least a few peeks of sun this afternoon, then as the more substantial shortwave disturbance and his associated cold front get to us, expect the clouds to increase and some pop-up showers and thunderstorms to fire out ahead of the main system.  Umbrellas are a good thing to have, especially if you're headed out to a high school football game this evening!  That being said, my thought is we should be able to get most of the games or your other outdoor evening plans done tonight without interruption.  Prevailing wisdom from the models suggests that the greater coverage of showers and storms doesn't really arrive until after 9 PM or so, but be prepared in case the second system shows up sooner than expected.  Your student-athletes will probably be close to home by the time the rains start to arrive in earnest.  Have a look at this map of the NAM Model FutureCast.  This is for 6 PM tonight...

One BIG caveat:  What we get tonight and the intensity will be directly correlated to how much sunshine we get across South Central Michigan between events this morning and afternoon.  Clearer skies than expected, plan on more widespread and higher intensity showers and storms.  If it stays cloudier than we think, back the intensity and coverage off a notch,  We'll have to watch it hour by hour.

SATURDAY?:  Pre-dawn showers and thunderstorms.  The good news is if you're headed out for some college football, most games should be be rain-free.  All indications are that the rain should be out of here by noon with clearing and cooler temperatures on the back side of the frontal boundary.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  After this quick double barreled hit today and tomorrow, it stays quiet for awhile.  The next shot at any widespread rain could be early next month!  Forecast model data suggests maybe a shortwave disturbance for early next week, but weak, with no dynamic support to create anything,  After that, our upper air flow stays zonal to flat ridged, with another wave and a disturbance coming through a week from Sunday, or 9/27, but that doesn't look to do much more than maybe cloud us up.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Springport:

Today - AM showers and any storms move off with the disturbance and leave cloudy skies with some breaks for sun.  Clouds redevelop PM, a few stray showers or even a roaming storm can't be ruled out.  High 76.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms re-develop, some could be marginally severe with heavy rains, high winds and even some small hail.  Lows near 61.

Saturday - Showers and thunderstorms should be pretty well gone by lunchtime,  Clouds start to thin in the afternoon, high 71.

Sunday - Sunny & seasonable.  High 69.

Monday - Clear & comfortable.  High 70.

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine and pleasant.  High 72.

Wednesday - Rinse & repeat Monday or Tuesday, sunshine and mild.  High 75.

Thursday - Continued clear and pleasant.  High 76.

Friday - Sunshine, nice.  High 75.

There's a look at your forecast.  I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.