Chilly Start, Spring Returns Late Week....

Good Morning!

Partly sunny skies greet us in South Central Michigan this morning, along with some chilly conditions.  A couple of spots even pocked up some flurries during the overnight hours.  Spring has temporarily paused, but not to worry!  It will be back.  Right now, a deeper dive is in order to see what we have going on here:

CHILLY WEATHER FOR AWHILE:  It stays here for a few days, but it's not as bad as what we have endured during the winter.  There will be some chilly nights, no doubt about it, but we also see daytime temperatures making it into mid 40's territory without a huge effort.  Chilly Canadian air has filtered in, and we are under a moderate amplitude ridge/trough/ridge upper air setup.  That's a fancy way of saying mild Pacific air is being diverted well south before it can turn back north again, and cold air is sagging into the US, pushing near freezing temperatures all the way into Tennessee.  Have a look at the current surface temperature map to see what I'm talking about:

Thursday, we see a shift in the pattern and the upper air flow flattens out some, winds come in more westerly, as opposed to diving in from Canada.  This allows temperatures to moderate some, and the ridging puts it in gear and starts moving our way.  We see upper 40's and the whole range of 50's back in the area as the end sum of that change.

WARMING NICELY FOR THE WEEKEND:  The headline says it all, but I will tell you that right now, the GFS forecast model likes a high of 56 on Thursday (I think that's a little ambitious right now), and we could make a run at 60 on Sunday!  As always, use caution with these statements, 7 days out is a bit early to hang your hat on anything.  I'll keep an eye on it and see how the modeling evolves.

A DRY LOOK 'TIL SATURDAY:  There's just not much of anything in the picture until the weekend.  An occasional lake effect flurry possible in this cold air, owing to the northwest wind off Lake Michigan, but aside from that, not a lot until a weak upper disturbance passes through Friday and maybe gets close enough to us that we think about a shower or two.  The more credible threat for scattered showers and perhaps a buried storm appears to be Saturday afternoon and evening.  If you're headed home from Spring Break, keep the umbrella handy.  Take a look at this map from the Weather Prediction Center, they do introduce some moisture into the game, but my money says what you see forecast on the map is a weekend deal:

National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Precipitation Forecast

A half inch total throughout pretty much the entire state between now and 8 AM next Monday morning.  Again - a lot can happen in seven days, this WILL change.

SEVERE WEATHER:  You'd have no clue that we are in severe weather season. Thanks to the upper atmosphere dynamics, we have been largely blocked out of all the rough stuff.  Any system with the moxie to start a ruckus has been shunted south of us or fallen apart in the face of a big fat stable cold air mass before it made it here.  And the systems that did hold together were starved of a crucial severe weather ingredient, usually unstable moist air to nosh on.  The severe weather is where you'd expect it this time of year, "slight" risk areas today and tomorrow in the south end of Tornado Alley, TX/OK.

Closer to home, the visible satellite shows that northwest flow off the lake, and you can almost see the cyclonic flow in the cloud bands up northeast into Canada:

Visible Satellite Image

Looking at Grand Rapids NEXRAD, this should look familiar - the right clouds you need for some lake effect snow bands.  Bear in mind that this is shooting aloft, so the returns here are likely not hitting the ground...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today, a mix of clouds and sunshine, the clouds may have a few flurries in them.  Chilly, high 36, winds NW 10-20 MPH.

Tonight, a mix of clouds and stars, cold, lows near 20, wind NW 6-13 MPH.

Tuesday, sunny, a touch milder, high 40, wind NW 7-14 MPH.

Tuesday night, mostly starry skies, another cold night, low near 21, wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday, mostly sunny, warmer still, high 45.

Thursday, continued clear, seasonable temperatures return, high 54.

Friday, mostly sunny, a few passing clouds, a slight chance of an isolated shower or two Friday afternoon with increasing clouds, high 53.

Saturday, cloudy, scattered afternoon showers and perhaps the mention of a lonely thunderstorm, high 56.

Sunday, cloudy skies, a lingering shower or two possible, high 57.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope that you have a wonderful Monday!  Blessings.