Another day of mixed sunshine and chilly conditions is upon us here in South Central Michigan. We'll keep them around for another day or so, but a nice warm up is on the way, along with some April Showers. Let's pop the hood and see what we having running in there!
I THOUGHT SPRING WAS HERE!?: Don't worry, it's coming back, I promise you. We just need to allow the upper air patterns to reset, and that starts happening in the next 24-36 hours. Right now, the lower 48 is under a ridge west/trough east setup. If you're under the trough, the door is open for cool air from Canada. Northwest breezes stay with us until late tomorrow into Thursday. Have a look at this surface temperature plot and you can see what I mean:
The cold air is heavy and stable, so the milder, lighter air from the Pacific and points southwest can't go through, it gets shunted around and south. A brief shot of warmer air comes in Thursday, sending us into the 50's again. Another upper wave rotates in behind that, knocking us back into the 40's. That gets out of here for Saturday, allowing ridging to reload into the area, and we get the 50's back. This time I think those stay around here for awhile. The usual 15-20 degree swing that I have observed during the warm season applies, so nighttime lows will be anywhere from 22 to 34 over the next several days. Add 15 to 20 degrees to that during the day and you're pretty close to the high.
TURN THE SHOWERS ON: You need some April showers for May flowers according to the old saying, so we start working on those this weekend. The upper wave that pushes us from 40's to 50's between Friday and Saturday will also touch off some scattered shower activity as it works through the front slope of the larger ridge. Nothing to worry about, just have an umbrella with you and you'll be fine. Keep it handy into Sunday as well. Have a look at the 7 Day WPC Precipitation Forecast Map...
Showers should be pretty well out of here late Sunday afternoon, with temperatures in the 50's. Another crack at rain comes Monday afternoon, as an additional little disturbance scoots by, bothering the atmosphere enough to create a few more widely scattered showers. If you're north of I-94 you may not even see anything Monday, this disturbance is expected to slide through Northern Indiana and Ohio if the forecast models have a handle on it.
Forecast modeling is showing more rain Wednesday and Thursday, so we'll pin that on the "re-check list" and see what shakes out in the future. Anything more than 7 days out is suspect anyhow.
SEVERE WEATHER: Too cold here yet to worry about that, and the Storm Prediction Center severe storm risk areas are about where you'd expect them to be this time of year, the south end of Tornado Alley (OK/TX), rotating through Dixie Alley and the Deep South for days two and three.
Looking at the visible satellite, just some broken stratocumulus clouds about, you can see the upper air winds kind of curving a bit in the northern part of Michigan. The white stuff in Wisconsin is surface snow cover that hasn't melted off yet. Nothing to see on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD right now.
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| Visible Satellite Image |
Today, mixed sunshine, a touch warmer but still chilly, high 41, wind NW 7-14 MPH.
Tonight, mainly clear skies, cold night, low near 20, wind fairly steady at NW 6-12 MPH.
Wednesday, mostly sunny, finally starting to warm a bit, high 45. Winds turn SW 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday night, still clear, maybe a few stray clouds, not as cold, lows near 25, wind SW 5-10 MPH.
Thursday, sunny and pleasant, seasonable temperatures return, high 56.
Friday, mostly sunny, a few passing clouds, not as warm as Thursday, high 50.
Saturday, clouds develop around lunchtime, bringing scattered afternoon showers, high 56.
Sunday, cloudy skies, a lingering shower can't be ruled out, high 53.
Monday, mixed sunshine and cooler, still seasonable, high 51.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
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