Our quiet weather pattern continues with some small changes here and there. The biggest variable is temperatures climbing a bit each day as warmer air slowly eases in. Nationwide, still not much change in the big picture. We have a high amplitude trough-ridge-trough pattern in place across the US, so sitting on the back slope of the central ridge, we tend to get cooler, drier northwesterly flow with love from Canada, as opposed to moister, warmer air from the southwest or off the Gulf of Mexico. Big weather makers have a hard way to go bulldozing through the front of a ridge, so they move with the flow, climbing the ridge (if they can) then coming down the back side. Yes, that's an oversimplified explanation, but it helps you see in your mind what's going on regarding the pattern we're in. I'll also toss in a map of winds at 500 millibars, or 18,000 feet where the jet airplanes play as a visual aid...
The black lines are height contours, color fills are spots of high vorticity. See how the general shape of the black lines is not too unlike a wave? I'll do a post and explain those for you later today, time permitting.
Let's shift gears and go to a deeper dive regarding what we'll get here the next few days:
TEMPERATURES: As indicated above and in yesterday's post, the forecast remains largely intact, with some turning of the temperature knob toward the warmer setting, and perhaps some cloud cover changes. We'll be in the upper 60's and 70's for daytime highs now, but expect 80's in time for the weekend.
RAIN: Looking at computer modeling, I don't expect any major rain players the next few days. That being said, it is summer in the midwest, and as the warmth returns, our chances of a few scattered afternoon showers or a roaming thunderstorm go up a bit each day. That's just a keep it in mind type of thing, as I expect most places to remain dry the next several days. Here's what the National Weather Services thinks as far as us getting some rain in here the next five days...
Basically all of Michigan will top out around a half inch of rain over the next five days. For the record, one of our fearless computer models, the GFS, is suggesting a widely scattered shower or pop-up storm is possible each evening the next couple of days.
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing around here the next three days. The Storm Prediction Center has us just under the "general" risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms. The Deep South and Montana are in the "slight" risk today, with Colorado and Nebraska in a bullseye tomorrow. SPC is thinking that some severe weather could occur in the Dakotas and hug the Canada/US border as it tracks east starting Saturday. We'll keep an eye on that and see what SPC says later today before we toss it into the mix here on the blog.
Here's a look at the visible satellite image and the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar. Some cotton ball cumulus on the satellite, enough to blot out the sun now and again briefly, and nothing on the radar except ground clutter.
Here's the local forecast for Jackson County:
Today, a mix of clouds and sunshine, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower late today, with a high of 70. Winds NE 7-14 MPH.
Tonight, some stars and clouds, cool, possibly a lone shower or two, low 49, winds N 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday...plenty of sunshine with some clouds moving through, again the outside chance of an isolated shower in the afternoon, high 74, winds N 7-14 MPH.
Wednesday night, still that mix of clouds and stars, cool, low 49. Winds N 5-10 MPH.
Thursday, mostly sunny, some clouds, a touch warmer with a high of 76.
Friday, more of the same...abundant sunshine, scattered clouds, add a few degrees to the thermometer, high 82.
Saturday, you guessed it - sunshine aplenty, a few clouds for variety, warming a bit more, high 85.
Sunday, partly sunny, warm, chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, high 85.
There's a look at your six day forecast, I do hope you have a great Tuesday! Blessings.
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