Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Mild Now, Warm Weekend Ahead!

Good Morning!


Full day ahead today, so let's get straight to the deeper dive.


TEMPERATURES:  We'll be right in the ballpark of our normal high for this time of year,  which is around 78.  The warming trend continues with a bit of a jump tomorrow instead of sneaking up a couple of degrees each day, getting into the 80's in time for the weekend, then climbing even more to make a run at 90 for Sunday.

RAIN:  This forecast seems to get a little drier each day.  The National Weather Service forecast for rain the next five days is simply put, a lack of it!  Bone dry here, up to a quarter-inch in the northern part of the mitten and in the Upper Peninsula.  Here's a look at that map for you.  The map is good through 8AM June 11th.




With that being said, the computer models are arguing about the chance of an isolated shower or perhaps a thunderstorm the next day or two.  The GFS says we'll be bone dry, and the NAM likes a one in three shot at rain.  For my money, dry looks better, based largely on the prevailing "big-picture" pattern.  Now, if we continue to see afternoon clouds develop like we have the last couple of days, toss in a little energy from any disturbance that is just wandering by in the upper atmosphere, and an isolated shower or lone thunderstorm become a possibility.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect anything here in Michigan the next three ys, other than the "general" risk for plain vanilla garden variety thunderstorms today for most of the state.  Days two and three, just the western Upper Peninsula has that "general" risk or a 5% chance under a "see text" box.  Here's the map from SPC valid today at 8AM:




Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is all quiet at this hour, and the visible satellite image shows clear skies in south central Michigan, with just some broken clouds off to the northwest.




Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Rives Junction and Vandercook Lake...



Today, mainly clear skies until late afternoon, then increasing clouds.  Seasonable and pleasant, high 75.  Winds NNW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, a mix of stars and clouds, cool, some spots could possibly see a lone shower, low 49, winds N 3-8 MPH.


Thursday, bright blue skies and nice, high 78.  WInds N 5-10 MPH.


Thursday night, lots of stars, seasonable,  Low 52, winds N 3-7 MPH.


Friday, more of the same...abundant sunshine, a few scattered clouds, warmer, high 82.


Saturday, plenty of sunshine, a chance at a stray shower late in the day, warmer still, high 85.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures continue to climb with a high of 87, some spots could easily notch a 90.


Monday, mostly cloudy skies, not quite as warm, scattered showers and perhaps a couple of random thunderstorms are possible, high 84.


That's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a wonderful hump day Wednesday!  Blessings.

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