Warmer, Rainy...

Good Evening!


After spending a day enforcing the rules on a soccer field, now it's time to care for and feed the blog.


I told you we'd see some warming today!  Warmer it has been, with many areas registering lower to middle 60's for daytime highs today, with bright blue skies for much of it.  That's about to change though, as the next system makes it's way in here from the southwest.  Clouds are on the increase as I write this forecast.  One deeper dive on the way!


TEMPERATURES:  I told you that patience with the cold would be rewarded.  It was cold early today for sure over in Wayne County, such that there was frost on the soccer pitch when we started our first games at the insane hour of 7:30AM!   At any rate, how do 80's around midweek sound?  Right now, the GFS is printing daytime highs of 80-plus for Wednesday through Friday.  In exchange for that, we have to tolerate a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, with tomorrow, Wednesday and Friday looking pretty rainy.  More on that below.  I really think we can kiss the low 50's for daytime highs bit goodbye for awhile.  Nighttime lows may roll back to the upper 30's here and there for a bit longer yet, but I would be surprised to see any widespread frost or freeze type temperatures.


RAIN:  The models are showing a weak disturbance coming in tonight that will touch off some showers and perhaps a buried thunderstorm for tonight into tomorrow.  We'll see this pattern repeat such that we'll have a good chance to get wet basically every other day this week.  Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, I am fairly confident we'll see rain, with at least some chance of rain for Tuesday and Thursday as well.  This set of model runs is looking pretty wet for the next 5 days, with some places in south central Michigan expected to pick up close to two inches of rain, if everything plays out as currently advertised.  Here's the National Weather Service's idea of rain totals through 8AM Friday morning...

SEVERE WEATHER:  Today and tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has us under just a "general" risk for thunderstorms, so as usual, that means if we get any, they'll likely be just the garden variety storm that doesn't do a whole lot besides make some light and noise and rain on you.  That Day 5 risk of severe weather for Michigan I talked about yesterday has vanished into thin air for now, which is not a bad thing. Here's the Day 1 and 2 maps from the SPC, Day 1 was updated to be valid from 4PM through 8AM tomorrow, and Day 2 is valid at 8AM as normal...

 Day 1

Day 2

Here's a look at the satellite from Grand Rapids showing all that gray and rainy headed in, along with the current radar image showing showers just coming into view off to the southwest...

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:


Tonight: cloudy skies, showers possible after midnight, a buried thunderstorm could also be there as well, nighttime lows down to 41.  Winds ESE 7-15 MPH.


Tomorrow: cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and a couple of thunderstorms likely, warmer, high of 63 with winds SE 7-12 MPH.


Monday Night: skies remain cloudy with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, nighttime lows of 45, winds swing around to NW 5-10 MPH.


Tuesday: more clouds than sun, warmer, a chance of a passing shower, high temperature of 70, winds SW 10-15 MPH.


Wednesday: partly sunny and much warmer, scattered showers and a couple of roaming thunderstorms likely, high 83.


Thursday: partly sunny, still warm, a near 50/50 chance of showers and thunderstorms, high of 83.


Friday: more of the same - a few peeks at sunshine with showers and thunderstorms expected, high of 81.


Saturday: another day of mixed clouds and sunshine, much cooler, high of 70.


There's a look at your forecast for the next 6 days, be sure to check us out tomorrow.  I do hope your evening is wonderful!  Blessings.