A rainy start to the day for most areas of the blog. We'll keep that around most of the day as you'll see in the discussion below. In fact, the forecast pattern for the next few days is actually pretty easy, assuming the models are on target. Rain in periods all day, relatively dry the following day, rewind and replay. Some showers and a few thunderstorms have moved through this morning, and they'll continue to fire off to the southwest of us and travel this way. Let's take a deeper dive to see what's going on.
TEMPERATURES: A sustained warm-up is on the way! Honest! The models are currently printing nothing below 70 for daytime highs after today, and get this: 87 for Thursday! Just bear in mind that with the warmer air, our risk for showers and storms, especially in the afternoon and evening goes up accordingly. I'll be curious to see if that holds with the next few model runs. Nighttime lows currently are slated to roll back only to the mid 50's. This is the first time we have gotten this warm since our pre-spring summer sneak peek back in March. Here's a look at temperatures around this great nation as of 9:15AM EDT. See those 60's and 70's in the Deep South? That's what's working on nosing in here the next few days.
RAIN: A wet pattern is on tap for the week. Periods of showers with a rogue thunderstorm or two for today, Wednesday, and Friday, and a drier Tuesday and Thursday, but there will be a chance of showers on those days as well. The National Weather Service thinks we'll get pretty wet as well, here's their take on rain for the next 5 days:
As you can see, everyone in the area is expected to pick up at least an inch, and some spots closer to two inches. I will have a separate post coming to correct a forecast error from last night, and hopefully explain why it's raining without having a "smoking gun" of sorts in any of the forecast maps.
SEVERE WEATHER: The next couple of days the Storm Prediction Center has us in the "general" risk category for thunderstorms, though they are not expected to go severe. That means they're thinking more of the regular "rain on you, make a little noise, and light things up occasionally" kind of storm. I am inclined to keep a closer eye on things today than I otherwise would, especially as the day progresses, owing to the track of the showers and storms so far this morning, and the fact that SPC has a "slight" risk for severe storms right underneath us from southern IL, through northern KY, southern IN, most of OH, into western PA. My concern is that as that warmer air gets in and the atmosphere heats up with sun heating, we may get a little more unstable air that could support some stronger storms. Here's the Day 1 map for today so you can see what I'm talking about. It's valid from now until 8AM tomorrow...
Tomorrow the severe threat shifts eastward, back over the north central Plains, then it sneaks back into WI and IL for Day 3. Here's Day 2...
Here's the radar from Detroit, and satellite images showing clouds, that rain, and a few small thunderstorms on the loose.
Time for the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Spring Arbor and Pleasant Lake:
For today, cloudy skies with periods of showers and a thunderstorm or two, high of 65, winds swinging from SE to SW 6-12 MPH.
Tonight: cloudy skies, rain tapering off late with a little clearing as well, low near 45 with winds becoming northerly calm to 5 MPH.
Tomorrow: more sun than clouds, warmer, a chance of a widely scattered shower or thundershower, high of 73 with south winds 7-15 MPH.
Tuesday Night: clouds roll back in, still a chance of a shower or two, lows down near 45, winds SE 7-15 MPH.
Wednesday: periods of clouds and sun, warmer, a near 50/50 shot at showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, high of 82.
Thursday: mainly cloudy, a few peeks of sunshine, chance of showers and thunderstorm in the afternoon, high of 87.
Friday: cloudy, not quite as warm, high near 82.
Saturday: mainly cloudy skies, a bit cooler still, high near 77.
There's a look at your forecast for the new week. I do hope you have a wonderful day! Blessings.
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