A clear, seasonably cool Friday and mainly starry night have given way to overcast skies this morning, and rain is lurking. We'll have one more day of chilly temperatures to get through before we see warmer weather, but as the temperatures go up, so do our chances of showers and thunderstorms. Let's take a deeper dive.
TEMPERATURES: If you can hang in there for one more day and night, your patience should be rewarded starting Sunday. Today and tonight look to be the last time we'll see a sub 55 daytime high and a sub-freezing nighttime low for awhile. It's just not going to get very warm today at all, with mostly overcast skies and rain moving though in periods keeping the air cool. The computer models are all running in the 48-51 range for the daytime high, and both the GFS and NAM are showing a low of 28 tonight, so don't be surprised to see some frost/freeze-related items coming from the National Weather Service later today.
After we make it through today, temperatures in the 60's, 70's and warmer are in the mix, with us making a hard run at 80 for Wednesday, seasonable nighttime lows in the 40's, and an occasional upper 30's low mark thrown in for variety.
RAIN: Currently there are some heavier showers and a couple of storms crossing Lake Michigan from Chicago. We'll have a taste of that periodically as the day progresses, though I don't expect it to be anything too terribly wet, at least not until late morning into the afternoon. We'll be getting a little watering this next five days as this map shows. This is the National Weather Service's idea of rain totals through 8AM Wednesday.
Rain totals are expected to come in between a half inch to 1.25 inches with totals increasing as you come south.
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing expected in Michigan for the next three days, but that changes. No risk category given for thunderstorms on days one through three, so we'll keep any rains we get in the next 72 hours as showers, although a buried storm can't be ruled out. Here's the change I mentioned, as the Storm Prediction Center is seeing a possible severe weather setup for Day 5 (May 2nd and 3rd) that includes a good chunk of southwest lower Michigan. Here's that map.
A lot of big-picture stuff can happen in the next five days that would diminish or eliminate that threat altogether, so we'll keep an eye on it. Long story short, if the forecast holds, it would be lower Michigan's first crack at a credible severe weather threat since the summer preview we had back in March that dropped a couple of tornadoes. Just wanting to put that in the back of your mind as your new week starts taking shape.
Here's a look at the current radar image from Grand Rapids, showing the band of showers and storms moving on shore down by Benton Harbor, extending into Indiana, and below that is the infrared satellite image, notice the showers and storms from down by Benton Harbor and into Indiana:
And here's your local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Michigan Center:
For today, cloudy skies with periods of showers and perhaps a roaming thunderstorm, high temperature 49, winds E 10-15 MPH, rain totals should top out around a quarter-inch around the area, less is on tap in many places.
Tonight, clearing skies, chilly, nighttime lows down to 28, winds ENE rolling back to between calm and 5 MPH. Do not be surprised to see frost/freeze items coming from the NWS for tonight.
Sunday, sunny skies, warmer, high of 61, winds ENE 5-10 MPH.
Sunday night, clear skies, clouds start filtering in before daybreak, not as cold, nighttime lows of 38 with winds ESE 7-15 MPH.
Monday, clouds increase, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, high of 68, winds ENE 7-15 MPH.
Tuesday. cloudy skies, warmer, chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, high of 73.
Wednesday, clouds persist, showers and thunderstorms are likely, high near 80.
Thursday, cloudy skies, a bit cooler, showers and thunderstorms possible, high of 75.
There's a look at your forecast for the next 6 days. I do hope you have a wonderful weekend! Blessings.
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