Pleasantly Boring...

Good Evening!

Has it seriously been a month since I last posted here!? Wow.  That's WAY too long.  I'll have to try to figure something out, but since I don't take public transit to work anymore, that time is spent doing other things.  At any rate, the last night of meteorological summer is upon us, as midnight starts meteorological fall, and there's not a whole heck of a lot going on to speak of at this hour.  Let's dive in and have a look...

QUIET IN THE AREA RIGHT NOW:   Aside from just some clouds, nothing to speak of.  Light northerly breezes and temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's fills the bill pretty much across the board:

Some clouds in the area, but not a lot going on.  The radar is quiet right now as well.

NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED:  Nothing expected to be severe in the are for the next three days.  No thunderstorms of any kind really.  The best chance for severe will be down in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic, as Tropical Storm Hermine spins through the Gulf Of Mexico.  Aside from there, just garden variety thunderstorm activity is expected elsewhere in the nation.  Tell you what though, some big numbers are showing up in the precipitation forecast...

Michigan will be bone dry, but the east coast is projected to see close to double digits in some places thanks to the tropical mischief afoot.  Michigan will see little if any precipitation the next five days.

QUIET PATTERN:  The next several days will not see much in the way of big changes, with temperature or precipitation chances.  Average temperature in Michigan this time of year is right around 77 degrees, and we'll stay comfortably in that range, or just a few degrees above it.  Forecast data suggests that the warmest we get in the area is 83 on Tuesday.  Labor Day weekend looks like a great travel weekend and sunshine should be in full supply for your last cookout or trip to the beach.  I'm suggesting 79 for the Labor Day high in Jackson, with 81 in Lansing.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - AM fog possible, then partly cloudy, some spots may manage to squeeze out a shower in the PM, Cool.  High 72.

Tonight - Clearing skies and continued seasonably cool, lows roll back to 50.

Friday - Sunny and seasonable, high 73.

Saturday - Clear and continued comfortable, high 77.

Sunday - Mainly sunny skies, perhaps a couple of passing clouds, a bit warmer still.  High 77.

Labor Day - Mostly sunny and seasonably warm.  High 79.

Tuesday - Sunshine, warmer still.  High 83.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds, we can't rule out some developing afternoon showers.  High 83.

There's your forecast, have a great Thursday!

Steamy & Sweltering...

Good Evening!

Another hot day in the books in South Central Michigan, and it's only going to get worse.  Let's have a look at what's going on right now:

Still plenty warm with readings well into the 70's at most all the reporting stations!  Lansing checking on with 78 in this image, Jackson 76.  Marshall is at 75, and even though it's not here, Ann Arbor is the cool spot at 66.

HEAT ADVISORY POSTED:  Every county in the blog - in the lower two thirds of the Lower Peninsula for that matter, is under a Heat Advisory for tomorrow and Friday.  The text of it is available in the post prior to this one, or you can check the National Weather Service Grand Rapids Forecast Office page.  In a nutshell, here's what to expect the next 48 hours

• The heat of the day will see readings into the 90's.
• Dew point values of 65 or better will be found in most places.
• The resulting Heat Index values will be near or at 100, locally higher values can't be ruled out.

I'm not going to bore you with "heat safety tips."  If you're reading this, you have enough common sense to watch yourself carefully if you have to be outside, and take the necessary measures to keep cool and hydrated.  I will say this though - please leave children and pets at home the next couple of days!  If you must take them with you while you're out running errands, DO NOT leave them in the car when you park!  Bring them inside with you.  If you leave your car and forget about the two or four legged small people, it will not take long for a tragedy to happen.  Even leaving the windows down a good ways may not be enough in this heat!  Soapbox put away.

WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?:  It's what forecasters and meteorologists refer to as a "death ridge".  It's a dome of hot air that is caused by a strong upper level high that is being fed by southerly flow,  Air tends to sink in high pressure systems, and it will warm as it does.  This is called subsidence.  The reason we call this a "death ridge" is that it is not moving very much at all.  The upper air pattern is blocked, so the ridge stays in the same general part of the country.  It expands and shrinks and may re-distribute by shifting around by couple of states, but that's it!  Here's the upper air map so you can see what I'm talking about:

I have drawn the ridge and labeled a couple of things.  The numbers are the approximate height in meters of the 500 millibar pressure readings.  We're pushing 6000 meters!  When you see anything over 588 on a map in the summer, that's hot!  Here's how hot:

The above map is off the Hi-Res NAM Forecast Model.  This is his temperature FutureCast for tomorrow at 5 PM EDT.  Lower 90's across the board, more populated areas will likely be in the mid 90's thanks to the heat island effect (lots of pavement for solar radiation to heat boosts ambient temperature, also motor vehicle traffic can aid and abet heating as well).  But that's only part of the story:

Here's the FutureCast for Heat Index values tomorrow at the same time.  White shading is 100 degrees or better.  South Central Michigan will feel like a dollar on the thermometer!  Bad as that is, it's worse out west!  Chicago will be pushing 110, Minnesota could make a run at 120!  I think that is overdone, but not by much!  This heat is serious business folks!

ANY CHANCE OF RAIN?:  You'd think with all of the moisture in the air, but there's no real dynamic forcing to get anything going.  That ridge is big, beefy, and stable.  It'll defeat most attempts to get air rising for convection and storm development.  The exception is I think we get what I call a ridge runner system coming through.  That's a disturbance that's running around the edges of the ridge as it moves west to east.  Normally you'd expect that to be part of a bona fide low pressure system, but in this setup, it's a disturbance that can sometimes kick off some scattered showers or a roaming thunderstorm.  You can also get the occasional pulse storms that can pop up from daytime heating.  From the perch here, I'm calling the mention of an isolated shower or pop-up storm in South Central Michigan tomorrow.  Between say, midnight and 6 AM Friday, I think we may get a few widely scattered showers and storms.  These could be strong, but spaced out some, based on a super juicy air mass.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  The good news is there is relief in the offing, and there is rain too!  This brutally hot temperature setup should not last beyond Saturday.  We'll stay warm no doubt, but forecast data is suggesting we bring daytime highs back into the mid to upper 80's for the new week, and the humidity looks to ease off some as well, because the ridge will flatten some and allow some drier air to mix into things.  Tomorrow night into Friday, and then again Sunday evening look to bring rain chances up to about even money.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Tonight - Mainly clear and muggy.  Lows only roll back to about 68, dew point values in the 60's keep it feeling like low to mid 70's.

Thursday - Sunny and hot.  Clouds start to develop late day, but not enough to mitigate heating.  Heat Advisory in effect, all blog counties.  High 90.  Heat Index values near 100, some spots could top that figure.

Thursday Night - Clouds thicken, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop after midnight, these could be rowdy.  Uncomfortable sleeping weather, with lows only rolling back to a steamy 75.

Friday - Partly cloudy, some lingering AM showers and thunderstorms.  Clearing and becoming hot and sauna-like in the afternoon.  High 93.  Heat Index values make a run at 100 again.

Saturday - Sunshine.  Still hot, but a touch less humid.  High 91.

Sunday - A bit cooler still also less humid, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.  High 88.

Monday - More clouds than sunshine, still the risk of a couple of showers or a thunderstorm.  High 87.

Tuesday - Sunny and warm, a bit less humid still.  High 88.

There's a look at your forecast, be careful with the heat tomorrow and Friday, and have a great one!  Blessings.

HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED - ALL BLOG COUNTIES

Good Evening!

Not like we really needed any re-confirmation, but it will be hot tomorrow and Friday - dangerously so.  Here's the detail of the Heat Advisory from the National Weather Service:

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY BOTH
   THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

 * HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL SOAR TO AROUND 100 BOTH AFTERNOONS.

 * THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND
   VERY MUGGY... NOT ALLOWING RECOVERY FROM THE HEAT.

IMPACTS...

 * PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE OUTDOOR HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS...
   MAKING HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.
   WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY
   MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT
   EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE
   FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

 * TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY
   AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST
   BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE
   OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED
   LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT
   WWW.READY.GOV/HEAT.

Stormy Sunday, Then Cooler...

Good Evening!

Another warm day is winding down in South Central Michigan.  We'll see some showers and storms in the area in the not too distant future, then we'll see some cooler temperatures that will definitely feel more refreshing for you.  Let's have a look at it...

WARM ONE FOR SURE:  Very warm readings today coming from the airport observation data.  Capital City in Lansing had 88 degrees, Jackson made it up to 85, Howell topped out at 86.  We'll see more warm weather tomorrow, but then a low pressure system begins nosing into the area and kicks off some showers and thunderstorms, and then the trailing cold front causes us to get much cooler air on the backside of the system.  Let's look at it...

Here's a look the GFS Model FutureCast for tomorrow at 11 AM EDT.  I could see a couple of scattered showers and storms ongoing at this time, but the bulk of the rain really doesn't work into the area until lunchtime or later.  Out ahead of the purple shading will be instability, some shear, and the other ingredients you need for thunderstorms.  That being said, I think these will strong to marginally severe, with gusty wind, small hail, and some brief downpours to contend with.  The Storm Prediction Center is thinking the same thing...

In addition to the "marginal" risk for all of lower Michigan, the risk extends into Ohio, then back across the Midwest into the Plains, and a smaller "marginal" risk area is identified for the northeastern quarter of Colorado.

DEFINITELY SOME RAINDROPS:  The next five days in Michigan will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  After tomorrow though, anything we see will be a pop-up and not have a lot of moisture available to drop big rains.  Have a look at this map from the Weather Prediction Center:

A half-inch is about all this map calls for.  There is a one inch bullseye up near the Port Huron/Sarnia, Ontario area, and a small finger of half-inch rains possible down by Benton Harbor.

COOL IT DOWN & CLEAR IT:  Once we get through tomorrow and into say, Monday afternoon, with the low and associated cold front pulling away from us, we'll see winds turning more west-northwest, and some milder air working into the area.  Starting Tuesday, daytime highs should top out at 81 or below!  That will feel refreshing after upper 80's with heat index values well into the 90's!

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, some could be marginally severe.  The next chance for rain comes in the form of some scattered showers and perhaps a roaming storm toward the weekend.

Here's the forecast for South Central Michigan:

Tonight - Clear skies early and seasonably mild.  Clouds filter in late, a morning shower or storm could pop, with lows near 64.

Sunday - Mainly cloudy, some showers and storms in the morning, with perhaps a break and then a second round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  These could be marginally severe, main threats gusty wind, small hail, heavy downpours.  High 83.

Sunday Night - Showers and storms ongoing around sunset, then they start to taper off.  Slowly clearing, lows roll back to 62.

Monday - Some lingering clouds and still seasonably warm, high 84.

Tuesday - Sunny skies and cooler, high 79.

Wednesday - Clear and comfortable, high 81.

Thursday - Mainly sunny skies, a couple of passing clouds, high 80.

Friday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, continued mild.  We can't rule out a PM shower or stray thunderstorm.  High 78.

Saturday - Partly sunny, still the mention of a possible later day shower or isolated storm.  High 80.

There's your forecast for the next week.  I hope that you have a great one!

Risk Slides Southwest...

Good Morning!

Another change in the severe weather maps today, one that benefits South Central Michigan.

Almost all of the blog area has been trimmed OUT of the Moderate risk area for severe weather today.  As I alluded to earlier this morning, it appeared to be that the better dynamics were going to be a bit removed from our area, and the new Storm Prediction Center map bears this out:

The only part of the blog that is still in the Moderate risk is extreme southwest Branch County.  Good news for sure.

NOT SO FAST:  Please understand that there is still a risk for severe weather in the area - Enhanced to be exact.  What I can say is that we now expect a threat that is more based on damaging straight-line wind and hail that is quarter sized or larger,  We still need to keep an eye out for storms that could rotate and drop a tornado though.  I fully expect some rowdy thunderstorms in the area sometime after 3 PM EDT today.

The best dynamics for sever weather, and consequently, the strongest storms will be over northwestern Illinois.  There is a 1 in 10 chance for a significant tornado in that part of the world, so if you know people in that area, be aware.  A slightly less risky setup is expected over the Chicago area, but you'll still want to let friends and family down there know to be aware.  Same goes for us here.

Forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - AM sunshine, clouds thicken during the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be severe.  High 78.

Tonight - Cloudy, showers and storms continue, some will be severe, high winds, hail, heavy rain.  Lows near 63.

Thursday - Storms will have tapered off for the most part, cloudy and cooler.  High 80.

We'll have more for you and update as time permits.  Have a great day!