Summer Heat, Summer Storms...

Good Morning!

Enough time to squeeze out a quick look at what should transpire the next few days here.  Let's dive into it.

HOT AND STEAMY TODAY:  With readings already touching 80 in most spots in the blog area and dewpoint values well into the 60's it's going to feel plenty steamy!  Heat index values are already reaching into the middle 80's, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them get into the lower 90's this afternoon as the heat of the day sets in!  I predicted 91 as the high today in yesterday's post, and the forecast computers are coming in at 88 for today.  I'm going to go with 90 for today's high in Jackson.  All of the heat and humidity will bring some changes today and tonight as we get...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE MOVE:  The Storm Prediction Center has put in a "slight" risk for severe weather just to the west of the core blog area, impacting west Michigan and points further southwest.  Here's a look at that map:

The good news is this doesn't much look like a tornado-based threat.  This will be a likely be a damaging wind and hail event.  Things should start to develop after about 2 PM, as we get into the heat of the day.  It should continue into the nighttime hours, as cooler weather moves in behind these storms.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Much cooler for midweek, carrying all the way into just about the weekend, with thermometers in the area giving up almost 15 degrees.  After today and perhaps early tomorrow, sunshine with readings in the mid to upper 70's are on tap, with the next real shot at rain coming later Saturday and into Sunday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, showers and thunderstorms developing after 2 PM.  Some of these may bring strong wind or small hail.  High 90.  Wind SSE 9-18 MPH.

Tonight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through about midnight, then clearing and cooler, lows roll back to 61.  Wind WNW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday - Clearing skies, much cooler, high 75, wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday - Sunny and seasonably mild, high 77.

Friday - More sun, a touch warmer, high 80.

Saturday - Increasing clouds, a few widely spaced showers possible in the afternoon, high 82.

There's a look at the forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

A Touch Of Summer Heat - Then Cooler...

Good Morning!

A lot of things going on both in and out of work the last week or so, therefore my time has been limited.  Not a ton of things going on in this part of the world weather-wise, so that's good.  Things starting to change a little bit though, so let's take a look...

SUMMER WARMTH IS BACK:  It definitely will feel like summer the next day or so, with readings in the upper 80's; I won't be shocked at all to see a 90 or two in the south zone today or tomorrow.  Ridge setup over most of the USA with a a 594 heat dome making his presence known just off to the southwest of Michigan.  Plenty of heat to go around.  Here's a bird's eye view about 18,000 feet up...

QUIET FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO:  Nothing much to see in the way of showers or storms for the next day or so.  The ridge is just too strong and the air isn't right for storm formation.  Too stable at this point.  Could we have a lonely storm fire?  Sure - but doubtful given this setup.  Just a lot of warm air coming up from the south as the west winds off the Pacific have to run WAY south then turn around the bottom of the heat dome you just saw.  Wednesday, a small upper disturbance could give us some showers and maybe a thunderstorm as it works through the area.

NOT A LOT OF RAIN - HERE ANYWAY:  Check out the 5-day Precipitation forecast map...

This suggests to me that we'll see some showers and storms tomorrow evening and Wednesday in West Michigan, with the thinking being they'll fizzle out as they move east across the state.  That's the big picture, but there's still some smaller puzzle pieces that could change this.

Just to toss in really quickly, folks in the Dakotas and Minnesota could be in for some adventure today, as the Storm Prediction Center has placed that area in a Moderate risk for severe weather.  Here's that map:

And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today:  Sunny with a couple of passing clouds, warm, high 86.  Wind S 8-16 MPH.

Tonight:  Moonlit skies, some clouds float by, lows near 60, wind SE 4-8 MPH.

Tuesday:  AM sunshine, increasing clouds in the afternoon - we mention the possibility of an isolated shower or storm, high 90.  Wind SSE 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday Night:  Cloudy, some scattered showers or a thunderstorm, low near 63.  Wind SSE 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday:  Cloudy to start, a few lingering showers, then clearing.  Cooler.  High 80.

Thursday:  More sun than clouds, seasonably mild, high 79.

Friday:  Sunny and pleasant, high 80.

There's your forecast through the end of the workweek, I'll work on a weekend forecast for you as time permits the next day or two.  Blessings!

Gotta Fix My Goof...

Hey Gang...

I messed up.  More specifically, my computer didn't post my updated version of my forecast before I closed out this morning.

Two things that will bring us some rain at least through early tomorrow, even if only scattered:

This is part of the 500 millibar upper air model.  This is the computer's take on the airflow and such at 18,000 feet up.  You see the brown shading over Michigan and the X over Wisconsin?  These are two uper disturbances in the bigger flow.  The general wind flow is the blue forked lines and pressures are the black lines.

These will be enough to touch off some isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a lonely thunderstorm as the day progresses.  By tomorrow, the "X" over Wisconsin will have rotated into Michigan, thus bringing us a chance at more of the same.

Seeing those changes, here's the amended forecast slides:

Part of me being a responsible forecaster/blogger is making sure the info I have is the best and most accurate I can present.  I apologize for the goof and I'll work harder to make sure it doesn't recur.  Have a good day!

Sunshine Spectacular!

Good Morning!

More Images than text today, but that's fine - not a lot to talk about.

"COOL SNAP":  Big-time trough over the eastern half of the US of A with a cold front sagging as far south as Tennessee.  We're well into the cool part of it.  Look at this water vapor satellite image to see what I mean:

The front is roughly on the south side of the brown streak, which is REALLY dry air.

Showers and storms south of it, dry, cool, refreshing north.

Here's what I expect the next several days, and the forecast...

And a sun-filled extended outlook!

Have a great day!  Blessings.

Rainy Weekend Ahead...

Good Morning!

If you want a sunny and comfy summer day, then this is the place to be!  More than enough sun to go around and cool, dry Canadian air to keep things pleasant for you!  We'll see some changes as we get to the weekend, then a surprise in store for the middle of July.  Let's get into it.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE:  Cool, dry, pleasant conditions in the area, with dew point values in the upper 40's to lower 50's.  No damp oppressive air here!  Also not much moisture for any clouds to form either.  Have a look at the visible satellite image...

As you can see, other than a few clouds over Windsor and points east, not a lot to see!  Because of that, no point in showing you radar either, unless you like looking at ground clutter.  Things won't change a whole lot in this regard for the next day or two either.

MILD TEMPERATURES:  Looking at the 9 AM surface temperature plot, we see the heat will be confined to where you expect it - the Desert Southwest and Deep South.  Temperatures in this part of the world this time of year average right around 83.  We don't see that with the exception of maybe this weekend, and the clear skies will allow for cool nights with open windows the only requirement for comfortable sleeping.  Computer forecast data is suggesting mid to upper 70's until Sunday, then a brief warm up.

CHANGES COMING NEXT WEEK:  I mentioned this above, now lets have a look at what I mean:

This is a map showing the expected surface temperature deviation from normal.  This map is valid at 8 AM Wednesday.  If this is right, you see that the Northwest will be see warmer than normal readings, with much of the lower 48 below average.  This suggests daytime highs in the low to mid 70's for next week.  I'm sure there won't be any complaints about that!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK:  Not today or tomorrow.  Too dry and cool.  That being said, the Storm Prediction Center does suggest that Branch and a sliver of Calhoun counties may get a couple of severe storms on Saturday, with hail and wind as the primary threats.  I'm sure that will change over the next 24 hours, so I'll update that as necessary.

RAINS AND SUCH:  Saturday through Monday are the best chances at showers and storms.  We stay clear through most of Friday, then we'll start seeing clouds work into the area.  By 6 PM, scattered showers and a few storms should develop and fire thanks to an upper disturbance working through the trough and low that's forecast to be over Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula at that point.  Here's the Weather Prediction Center forecast map:

If this is the right look, and this suggestion is getting better all the time, then late Friday evening on looks to be pretty wet.  That 2.3 inches of rain bullseye up around Big Rapids is something to note!

Now that most of the specifics are done:

And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

And here's the Six Day Planner:

I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.