Not Quite As Hot, But More Humid...

Good Morning!


Some mid-level clouds greet us in Jackson this morning...at least we still have power.  Over 2 million people from Indiana to DC were put in the dark as a derecho blew through, associated with an organized band of thunderstorms that developed in Illinois, expanded and got it together in Indiana, and started marching eastward.  Some deperately needed rain was had from the storms, at the expense of copious striaght-line wind damage.


Closer to home, that storm complex gave us a much needed break from the heat, stopping thermometers from climbing out of the lower 90's yesterday, and keeping heat index values in that same range.  Let's take a closer look at see what's on tap:


TEMPERATURES:  A lot of upper 80's or low 90's degree readings expected for the next several days.  While that beats the triple digit air and heat index values, it's still plenty warm.  Temperatures stay right around the 90 mark right through the 4th of July and the end of the following week.  Here's a look at the current conditions across the nation:

US Surface Temperatures

RAIN:  South of us into Indiana, their drought situation has improved somewhat, with rain falling of showers and thunderstorms that have have fired over northern Illinois and tracked southeast ever so slightly, enough to miss us altogether in south central Michigan.  Unfortunately the rain chances don't go up a whole lot for the next few days, putting some fireworks displays in jeopardy of being canceled due to dry conditions.  There will be a small chance of an isolated shower or storm each afternoon for the next two or three, but that's about it.  Here's a look at the  National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

I said in a prior discussion where the NWS was figuring on an inch or so for the five day window that it looked overdone to me, and here we see the modeling has backed off on that scenario.  This forecast map looks more realistic to me, as the upper air setup just doesn't have everything it needs to kick off and sustain strong thunderstorms in an organized fashion.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing in Michigan for the next three days.  All we have here is the "general" risk for thunderstorms according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, any storms that can fire and get a foothold into the moist air here could go severe very quickly, with hail and damaging wind as the primary threats.  If you followed one on radar what you'd see is a lone thunderstorm roaming unchallenged with a thunderstorm warning box on or leading it.  Here's a look at the maps from the SPC:

SPC Day 1 Outlook 

SPC Day 2 Outlook

SPC Day 3 Outlook

Nothing on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD, and here's a look at the visible satellite picture:

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For today, sunny with a few passing clouds and hot, high 93, winds vary from SW to NW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, mainly clear skies with a few passing clouds, lows drop to near 61. winds NE calm to 5  MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, still warm, high near 91, winds SE turning SW 5-10 MPH.


Sunday night, periods of clouds and stars, mild, lows only roll back to 67, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Monday, mainly cloudy skies with maybe a peek or two of sun, hot and humid, a chance of an isolated shower or hit and run thunderstorm, high 92.


Tuesday, cloudy skies, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, humid, high 90.


Independence Day, partly cloudy skies, very warm and continued humid, high 90.


Thursday, partly sunny skies, a few clouds, warm but not quite as humid, high 88.


There's a look at your six day forecast, I hope you have a great Saturday!  Blessings.

Heat Relief!

HEAT ADVISORY CANCELED, WASHTENAW, LENAWEE

Due to clouds associated with a thunderstorm complex working through Indiana into Ohio right now, the National Weather Service Detroit office has canceled the Heat Advisory for Washtenaw and Lenawee counties for today.  High temperatures and heat index values should stay in the lower 90's through the rest of the day. WHOOPEE!!!

A Small (Very Small) Break In The Heating Action!

Good Afternoon!


Nothing fancy here on the blog today, as I am still not 100%, but more importantly I am moving this weekend!  I will attempt to have a forecast of some sort up here, but that depends on how well things go with the move.


Looking at conditions this afternoon we have some severe thunderstorm activity just over the state line into Northern Indiana, as a storm complex has built and is tracking southeast.  Looking at the Northern Indiana NEXRAD, the bottom tier of counties in the blog are seeing at least a hint of some desperately needed rain.


The clouds in the area will keep temperatures down a bit from their forecast levels, which is a good thing, but the humidity will go up a bit as well.


Let's get to the forecast for the weekend:


For this afternoon, more clouds than sunshine with a chance at an isolated shower or roaming thunderstorm, high 92.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, still continued mainly cloudy, still that chance of an isolated shower or storm, lows roll back to 67, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Saturday, mostly sunny and very warm with a perhaps a few passing clouds, highs near 93, heat index values will again be into the upper 90's in most places.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Saturday night, mainly cloudy, a chance at a widely scattered or scattered shower or thunderstorm, low 62, winds W 5-10 MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a bit cooler, high 89, winds NW 5-10 MPH.


Monday, variable cloudiness through the day with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, muggy, high 89.


Tuesday, partly sunny skies, humid, high 92.


Wednesday, more sun than clouds early, chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon, not quite as warm, high 86.


There's your forecast for the next six, I do hope you have a great Friday.  Wish me luck on the move to a new place.  Blessings!  Have a great weekend!

High And Hot By The Numbers...

Hello Again!

With a chance to look over some data, I thought I'd see if any records came down...one did, one tied.  I have the high temperature from the National Weather Service, and historical data from Weather.com, who also pulls from the NWS, but their format is easier to use.  I have the city, high for today, and record high...

• Jackson - High 98 Record 101 (1971)
• Battle Creek - High 99 Record 101 (1971)
• Lansing - High 98  Record 97 (1934) RECORD BROKEN
• St. John's/Corunna (Owosso) - High 96 Record 99 (1988)
• Ann Arbor - High 100 Record 103 (1934)
• Coldwater - High 100 Record 102 (1988)
• Adrian - High 102 Record 104 (1988) HOT SPOT
• Hillsdale - High 102 Record 104 (1988) HOT SPOT
• Howell - High 99 Record 101 (1988)
• Charlotte - High 98 Record 101 (1953)
• Mason - High 100 Record 100 (unknown) RECORD TIED

Here's the Heat Index highs for today, and the time they were recorded:

• Jackson - 106 at 4:56PM
• Battle Creek - 104 at 3:53PM
• Lansing - 106 at 5:53PM
• St. John's/Corunna - 103 at 5:34PM
• Ann Arbor - 110 at 4:53PM HOT SPOT
• Coldwater - 105 at 3:35PM
• Adrian - 108 at 5:53PM
• Hillsdale - 109 at 4:35PM
• Howell - 103 at 4:15PM
• Charlotte - 106 at 2:55PM
• Mason - 107 at 4:32PM

Looks like my heat index forecast was a bust for not being hot enough...oh my!  We see only a tiny bit of relief tomorrow!  For the record, my daytime forecast high for today would have been 97.

This Heat Is Just Not Funny!!!

Good Evening!

I spent almost 3.5 hours on a post for you all today talking in depth about the heat and chances of showers and storms, as well as giving you a bit of the why behind what I was predicting, then Blogger didn't post it and I could not get a saved copy back.  I was as hot under the collar as it is outside (still am).  At any rate, with plenty of allergy and cold medicine in me and leaving the day job early because I am also under the weather (not kidding), here's a second attempt at a discussion.

TEMPERATURES: The heat we have in place now is simply brutal, some spots are in triple digits for their air temperatures as I start writing this at 5PM, and pretty much everyone is or should be in triple digits for heat index values.  The heat index is the number you want to know right now, as that will tell you what your body is experiencing.  Computer models have the flat ridge and the big-time heat dome under it with us right through Saturday, with temperatures staying at or above 93 right through the weekend, and the associated heat index values near or into triple digits.  As I check them today, I am sure that records will be falling in droves around the area.  We'll see the heat ease off a few degrees for early next week, but then it comes right back.  Here's current surface temperatures around the US...

US Surface Observations 5PM EDT

RAIN: The National Weather Service is thinking that we will see about an inch of rain over the next five days in the area.  We'll take anything we can get, as this heat wave and overall lack of moisture have a lot of unwatered lawns brown and crops stressed due to the lack of rainfall.

Here's that map for you...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

For my money, I just don't think we get that wet over this five day stretch.  It's so hot so high up into the atmosphere, that the convection needed to start thunderstorms has to be higher off the ground than normal, hence the term "elevated" thunderstorms.  More on this in the severe part of the discussion.  I am thinking something more along the lines of three-quarters inch of rain on the high side works for a forecast amount.  The forecast from NWS is showing a more uniform rain coverage, but from the data I have looked at, it really seems a bit overdone, and more spacing between shower and storm elements makes sense to me.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Just garden variety thunderstorms are forecast by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days.  Here's the catch to that.  We have plenty of warm moist air in the area due to the air mass we are currently under.  If air can get floaty and buoyant to rise high enough and get cumuliform clouds set up, then you could see some thunderstorms.  If they can tap into the moisture in the air up there, look out.  They can go strong or severe in a heartbeat.

Storms that want to fire have to break through the "cap", which is a lid of warm air that tends to shut down the rising of air needed to set up thunderstorms.  So we'll have to see if something can give the air a push from underneath to help it get through, or if we get some wimpy storms that have low cloud tops and can't get a solid foothold into some moist, juicy air to work on.  Here's the maps from the Storm Prediction Center, valid at 8AM each day.

SPC Day 1 Forecast

SPC Day 2 Forecast

SPC Day 3 Forecast

Here's the forecast for Jackson County:

For this evening, mainly clear skies with perhaps a passing cloud, still hot until later, then cooling back to 68, winds W 3-8 MPH.

Tomorrow, sunny skies with just a passing cloud or two, very hot again, high temperatures reach 95, heat index values near or into triple digits, winds SW calm to 6 MPH.

Friday night, still mainly starry with perhaps a passing cloud or two, low of 64 winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, mostly sunny with a passing cloud or two, high 89, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sun with a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, high 88.

Monday, continued partly sunny, cooler, high 84.

Tuesday, mainly clear, high 85.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope you have a great rest of your day!  Keep Cool!  Blessings.