Not Quite As Hot, But More Humid...

Good Morning!


Some mid-level clouds greet us in Jackson this morning...at least we still have power.  Over 2 million people from Indiana to DC were put in the dark as a derecho blew through, associated with an organized band of thunderstorms that developed in Illinois, expanded and got it together in Indiana, and started marching eastward.  Some deperately needed rain was had from the storms, at the expense of copious striaght-line wind damage.


Closer to home, that storm complex gave us a much needed break from the heat, stopping thermometers from climbing out of the lower 90's yesterday, and keeping heat index values in that same range.  Let's take a closer look at see what's on tap:


TEMPERATURES:  A lot of upper 80's or low 90's degree readings expected for the next several days.  While that beats the triple digit air and heat index values, it's still plenty warm.  Temperatures stay right around the 90 mark right through the 4th of July and the end of the following week.  Here's a look at the current conditions across the nation:

US Surface Temperatures

RAIN:  South of us into Indiana, their drought situation has improved somewhat, with rain falling of showers and thunderstorms that have have fired over northern Illinois and tracked southeast ever so slightly, enough to miss us altogether in south central Michigan.  Unfortunately the rain chances don't go up a whole lot for the next few days, putting some fireworks displays in jeopardy of being canceled due to dry conditions.  There will be a small chance of an isolated shower or storm each afternoon for the next two or three, but that's about it.  Here's a look at the  National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

I said in a prior discussion where the NWS was figuring on an inch or so for the five day window that it looked overdone to me, and here we see the modeling has backed off on that scenario.  This forecast map looks more realistic to me, as the upper air setup just doesn't have everything it needs to kick off and sustain strong thunderstorms in an organized fashion.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing in Michigan for the next three days.  All we have here is the "general" risk for thunderstorms according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, any storms that can fire and get a foothold into the moist air here could go severe very quickly, with hail and damaging wind as the primary threats.  If you followed one on radar what you'd see is a lone thunderstorm roaming unchallenged with a thunderstorm warning box on or leading it.  Here's a look at the maps from the SPC:

SPC Day 1 Outlook 

SPC Day 2 Outlook

SPC Day 3 Outlook

Nothing on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD, and here's a look at the visible satellite picture:

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For today, sunny with a few passing clouds and hot, high 93, winds vary from SW to NW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, mainly clear skies with a few passing clouds, lows drop to near 61. winds NE calm to 5  MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, still warm, high near 91, winds SE turning SW 5-10 MPH.


Sunday night, periods of clouds and stars, mild, lows only roll back to 67, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Monday, mainly cloudy skies with maybe a peek or two of sun, hot and humid, a chance of an isolated shower or hit and run thunderstorm, high 92.


Tuesday, cloudy skies, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, humid, high 90.


Independence Day, partly cloudy skies, very warm and continued humid, high 90.


Thursday, partly sunny skies, a few clouds, warm but not quite as humid, high 88.


There's a look at your six day forecast, I hope you have a great Saturday!  Blessings.