I spent almost 3.5 hours on a post for you all today talking in depth about the heat and chances of showers and storms, as well as giving you a bit of the why behind what I was predicting, then Blogger didn't post it and I could not get a saved copy back. I was as hot under the collar as it is outside (still am). At any rate, with plenty of allergy and cold medicine in me and leaving the day job early because I am also under the weather (not kidding), here's a second attempt at a discussion.
TEMPERATURES: The heat we have in place now is simply brutal, some spots are in triple digits for their air temperatures as I start writing this at 5PM, and pretty much everyone is or should be in triple digits for heat index values. The heat index is the number you want to know right now, as that will tell you what your body is experiencing. Computer models have the flat ridge and the big-time heat dome under it with us right through Saturday, with temperatures staying at or above 93 right through the weekend, and the associated heat index values near or into triple digits. As I check them today, I am sure that records will be falling in droves around the area. We'll see the heat ease off a few degrees for early next week, but then it comes right back. Here's current surface temperatures around the US...
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| US Surface Observations 5PM EDT |
RAIN: The National Weather Service is thinking that we will see about an inch of rain over the next five days in the area. We'll take anything we can get, as this heat wave and overall lack of moisture have a lot of unwatered lawns brown and crops stressed due to the lack of rainfall.
Here's that map for you...
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
For my money, I just don't think we get that wet over this five day stretch. It's so hot so high up into the atmosphere, that the convection needed to start thunderstorms has to be higher off the ground than normal, hence the term "elevated" thunderstorms. More on this in the severe part of the discussion. I am thinking something more along the lines of three-quarters inch of rain on the high side works for a forecast amount. The forecast from NWS is showing a more uniform rain coverage, but from the data I have looked at, it really seems a bit overdone, and more spacing between shower and storm elements makes sense to me.
SEVERE WEATHER: Just garden variety thunderstorms are forecast by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days. Here's the catch to that. We have plenty of warm moist air in the area due to the air mass we are currently under. If air can get floaty and buoyant to rise high enough and get cumuliform clouds set up, then you could see some thunderstorms. If they can tap into the moisture in the air up there, look out. They can go strong or severe in a heartbeat.
Storms that want to fire have to break through the "cap", which is a lid of warm air that tends to shut down the rising of air needed to set up thunderstorms. So we'll have to see if something can give the air a push from underneath to help it get through, or if we get some wimpy storms that have low cloud tops and can't get a solid foothold into some moist, juicy air to work on. Here's the maps from the Storm Prediction Center, valid at 8AM each day.
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| SPC Day 1 Forecast |
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| SPC Day 2 Forecast |
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| SPC Day 3 Forecast |
Here's the forecast for Jackson County:
For this evening, mainly clear skies with perhaps a passing cloud, still hot until later, then cooling back to 68, winds W 3-8 MPH.
Tomorrow, sunny skies with just a passing cloud or two, very hot again, high temperatures reach 95, heat index values near or into triple digits, winds SW calm to 6 MPH.
Friday night, still mainly starry with perhaps a passing cloud or two, low of 64 winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Saturday, mostly sunny with a passing cloud or two, high 89, winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sun with a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, high 88.
Monday, continued partly sunny, cooler, high 84.
Tuesday, mainly clear, high 85.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope you have a great rest of your day! Keep Cool! Blessings.
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