WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Weather Advisory starting at noon tomorrow and running through early Tuesday.  Expect 4-7" of new snow starting tomorrow.  I'll have a look at the full scoop for you this evening!

More Snow Before A Breather...

Good Morning!

We see a couple of more shots of snow, then the thawing gets underway, with temperatures edging near 40 toward the end of next week!  Let’s have a look:

CLEAR AND CRISP TO START:  A clear winter morning is on tap for south central Michigan with readings topping out in the 20’s.  We’ll start to pick up some clouds as the day rolls along, and those clouds will bring in some precipitation later.  We’ll keep them around in varying degrees until Monday afternoon, when our next serious snow-maker rolls in.

A DOUBLE-TAP OF SNOW:  The first of another twin-barreled events gets here late tonight and into tomorrow, with another fairly weak Clipper (upper disturbance) coming through and bothering the air just enough to touch off some light snow that won’t do a whole lot more than annoy you if you’re traveling.  I fully expect the snow out of this thing to stay under an inch.  That departs, then we get into the new work week, and that’s when we get the substantial snow.

A system works into the area on Monday, and that guy brings us from 2-4” of additional snow before departing early Tuesday.  My thinking is we could see some locally intense snowfall out of this, if the core of the low tracks over Indianapolis as it is forecast to do.  That’s a problem because after that, we start adding degrees to the temperature, and…

THE THAW GETS ROLLING: After the snow gets out of here Tuesday, we start adding some warmth to things.  I see that the computer forecasts have pulled back their expectations for high temperature for the tail end of the week which is a good thing.  Last night I saw the GFS forecast model printing something like 47 for Thursday, but that has come down to 39.  I was suspicious of that much of a warm-up all along, and I’m glad to see the change. 

We’ll start melting some of this snow alright, but it won’t be such a sharp warm-up that we see heavy-duty flooding – as it stands right now.  Bear in mind that we have had a rough winter.  The ground is frozen deeper than normal, we have more snowpack than usual, and more ice on lakes and rivers.  All of this gives the potential for a messy thaw anytime we get into above freezing air for a longer period of time.  Increased runoff and ice damming are the two issues we’ll likely have to prepare for.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Temperatures will return to winter levels next weekend, just in time for another snow system.  This one could be another pretty good sized snow, as computer modeling is suggesting that a low coming out of north Texas could phase up with an upper wave just a couple of states north.  If that happens, brace for another slap in the face from Old Man Winter.

Here’s the forecast:

Today – Sunny to start and cold, increasing clouds this afternoon with perhaps some snow, high 20.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH keeps wind chills down around  10 degrees.

Tonight – Cloudy, light snow, accumulations should stay under an inch, lows near 10, wind turning S 3-6 MPH.

Sunday – Cloudy, a touch warmer, high 27.  Wind SSW turning E 3-6 MPH.

Monday – Cloudy, snow developing by lunchtime, 2-4” possible by Tuesday morning depending on location, high 27.

There’s the forecast for you, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Just A Little Bit Further...

Good Morning!

THERE'S LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL!:  We see some moderation in temperature briefly, then a sustained warm-up next week.  The graphics below tell the tale.  I have to work the straight job today so I hope to have a longer view up for you this afternoon or evening.  At least we FINALLY get to sit out a major winter storm.  If I have to freeze  to avoid the snow and headaches I'm OK with that...

There you are.  Have a wonderful Hump Day!  Blessings.

Cold, Then A Reprieve

Good Morning!

#miwx #scentmiwx #weather

We start the day today with some partly sunny skies, and we’ll see them come and go with the pattern that we’re used to this season continuing, where the lake effect snow rolls this way from off Lake Michigan, and we get clouds, a burst of snow, then additional peeks at the sun.  Let’s dive in and see what’s going on…

WAITING ON THE DEEP FREEZE:  It’s only a matter of time before we see that nasty cold air return to the area.  Points west and south –continue under Wind Chill Advisories from the National Weather Service, with wind chills in the -15 to -30 neighborhood.  No issues like that today, but tonight and tomorrow, that changes.  Some spots in MN will see daytime highs barely in the plus column!  Have a look at the national temperatures….

That’s just cold.  The good news is that a brief reprieve is starting to become more likely, assuming that forecast data is accurate.  Before we get there later this week though, we’ll need to talk about a hint of…

ADDITIONAL SNOW:  The majority of it will be in the snow box, west of US-131 and a lake-effect deal. Areas further east like Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, and Hillsdale may see just a touch of snow with minimal accumulation, thanks to an upper disturbance working through the area late tonight and into tomorrow.  Not a major worry, looks like less than an inch for the most part if you see anything at all.  Then the polar high that shoves us into the freezer chest takes hold and pretty much nixes any precipitation chances until Wednesday, when we might see another smattering of snow.  Anything we get Wednesday is a follow-on from the storm working through the Deep South (MS, AL, GA).  Here’s a look at the seven day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

You see Michigan picks up about a half inch of liquid over the next week according to this map.  That lines up with the fact that the upper disturbances models are showing for the week won't do much, and the polar high effectively shuts off  most, if not all of the snow for the couple of days it's parked over us.

The storm south will help push the polar high out of here, and some energy behind that slips in and maybe touches off another light snow affair.  After that, Thursday evening into Friday is when we get the next deal to worry about, as a low slides through the northern half of the Lower Peninsula and brings us more accumulating snows.  We’ll have more detail on that in the next day or so.

YOU SAID MILDER MIKE:  Yes I did, and it will be brief, I promise you.  Thursday’s forecast high is the closest we have been to the freezing mark in several days.  We’ll see that in front of the low I alluded to above, as some southerly wind off the back of the polar high moderates things just a bit.  Forecast guidance says we get to 30, I’m thinking 27-29.  We’ll see how that changes.  After that, back into the teens we go.

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LOOOKING AHEAD:  Longer-range, models are suggesting that we see and hold above freezing readings starting about a week from today.  35-40 looks about right, but this is still a week plus out, and there’s little if any solid ground to stand on when projecting that far ahead – we just don’t have the skill that far in advance.  At that point, you start looking at climate and trends.  The jury is out on that.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Today - Periods of clouds and sunshine, maybe some flurries or even a touch of light snow, minimal accumulation.  High 18, wind WNW 4-8 MPH.  Wind chills stay around 10.

Tonight – Slow clearing, bitterly cold late as the high rolls in.  Lows near 0, wind chills down to -10 possible.  Wind NW 3-6 MPH.

Tuesday – Mostly sunny, frigid.  High 16, winds turning S 3-8 MPH.  Wind chills again near or in single digits.

Tuesday night – Mostly starry and cold, lows near 0.  Wind chills around -10, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday – Increasing clouds and milder, we can’t rule out a snowflake or two, high 21.

Thursday – Some mixed sunshine and the mildest day of the seven, high 29.

Friday – Cloudy, some light snow, accumulations of an inch or two possible.  High 26.

Saturday – Periods of clouds and sunshine, high 21.

Sunday – Cloudy, some afternoon snow developing, high 25.

There’s your forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Back To The Cold - A Bit Of Snow Too...

Good Evening!

After a frustrating weekend trying to figure out how to replace a vehicle, get back the money that was stolen from me when my bank card was compromised, and doing taxes that say I have to pay in a sizable chunk to Uncle Sam, this seems almost simple!  Let’s have a look and see what’s going on…

MORE CLOUDS AND SUCH:  We are in the typical winter pattern here in Michigan, with periods of clouds that accompany the lake effect snow bands as they work inland.  That snow is persisting as it has in fits and starts all day long at this hour.  Have a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image:

As you can see, still some activity in the snow box.  That will taper off some as we get the nasty cold air coming in with the polar high in another day or two.

We’ll get a bit of accumulation, an inch or two, but it takes a while for it to add up as we get bands rolling through the area until late tomorrow, then we start to see some clearing as that high out west pushes in here and also pushes the deep freeze door open once again, because…

THE PAIN RETURNS:  While I would love to say that temperatures remain at least semi-bearable, that’s not the case.  Our next polar high is resting out west in the Dakotas.  Forecast data indicates that it’ll shift into drive and start moving this way, clearing the skies but bringing bitter cold temperatures with it.  When we lose our cloud cover, we lose the blanket effect it provides, trapping daytime heat down here close to us.   Wind Chill Advisories are up for all of Wisconsin and Minnesota, the northern half of Illinois, a good chunk of Iowa, and part of Missouri.  We get our turn tomorrow night, with temperatures dipping below zero over night, and wind chills, doing the -20 to -30 bit again for Tuesday.

A QUICK WARM UP?:  In looking at forecast data today, I see that for later this week, the computers are suggesting a high of about 31 for Thursday.  My take on that right now is, “Uh-huh, keep talking…”  It’s too early to hang my hat on that, regardless of the fact that models are saying we see an upper air pattern change that will push the Polar air back across the border, as ridging and milder air comes into the West off the Pacific.  I’ll check in on that as the models keep doing their thing, but for now I’m passing on it as a probable event.  The computers have had a tough time nailing things down this winter.

MAYBE A THAW IN ABOUT A WEEK OR SO:  I am NOT expecting this to hold up at this point, but forecast models are indicating that we finally manage to get to and hold at or above freezing temperatures a week from Wednesday.  This is more of a “think Spring” statement than anything else, as this is outside the seven days that you have any business even THINKING about planning for.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:

Tonight, mainly cloudy with some periods of light snow, little accumulation, lows near zero. Wind WNW 5-10 MPH keeps wind chills down as low as -10.

Monday, again, a lot of clouds with a couple of breaks for sun, continued cold, high 14. Wind WNW 4-9 MPH.  Wind chills still hover around 0.

Monday night, we start to see clearing as the polar high tracks in, lows could dip to -5, winds become WSW 4-7 MPH.  Wind chills up to -15.

Tuesday, mainly clear skies, cold.  Daytime highs only make it to around 15.  Wind turns S 5-10 MPH, keeping wind chills down around 0.

Wednesday, mostly sunny, continued cold, high 17.

Thursday, increasing clouds, warmer, high 29.

Friday, perhaps some light snow, cloudy, temperatures fall back to 18.

As soon as I am able to get a handle on all the non weather crap that I alluded to in the opening of this post, expect a shift back toward the at least semi-regular posting schedule.  Have a great day!  Blessings.