Cold, Then A Reprieve

Good Morning!

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We start the day today with some partly sunny skies, and we’ll see them come and go with the pattern that we’re used to this season continuing, where the lake effect snow rolls this way from off Lake Michigan, and we get clouds, a burst of snow, then additional peeks at the sun.  Let’s dive in and see what’s going on…

WAITING ON THE DEEP FREEZE:  It’s only a matter of time before we see that nasty cold air return to the area.  Points west and south –continue under Wind Chill Advisories from the National Weather Service, with wind chills in the -15 to -30 neighborhood.  No issues like that today, but tonight and tomorrow, that changes.  Some spots in MN will see daytime highs barely in the plus column!  Have a look at the national temperatures….

That’s just cold.  The good news is that a brief reprieve is starting to become more likely, assuming that forecast data is accurate.  Before we get there later this week though, we’ll need to talk about a hint of…

ADDITIONAL SNOW:  The majority of it will be in the snow box, west of US-131 and a lake-effect deal. Areas further east like Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, and Hillsdale may see just a touch of snow with minimal accumulation, thanks to an upper disturbance working through the area late tonight and into tomorrow.  Not a major worry, looks like less than an inch for the most part if you see anything at all.  Then the polar high that shoves us into the freezer chest takes hold and pretty much nixes any precipitation chances until Wednesday, when we might see another smattering of snow.  Anything we get Wednesday is a follow-on from the storm working through the Deep South (MS, AL, GA).  Here’s a look at the seven day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

You see Michigan picks up about a half inch of liquid over the next week according to this map.  That lines up with the fact that the upper disturbances models are showing for the week won't do much, and the polar high effectively shuts off  most, if not all of the snow for the couple of days it's parked over us.

The storm south will help push the polar high out of here, and some energy behind that slips in and maybe touches off another light snow affair.  After that, Thursday evening into Friday is when we get the next deal to worry about, as a low slides through the northern half of the Lower Peninsula and brings us more accumulating snows.  We’ll have more detail on that in the next day or so.

YOU SAID MILDER MIKE:  Yes I did, and it will be brief, I promise you.  Thursday’s forecast high is the closest we have been to the freezing mark in several days.  We’ll see that in front of the low I alluded to above, as some southerly wind off the back of the polar high moderates things just a bit.  Forecast guidance says we get to 30, I’m thinking 27-29.  We’ll see how that changes.  After that, back into the teens we go.

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LOOOKING AHEAD:  Longer-range, models are suggesting that we see and hold above freezing readings starting about a week from today.  35-40 looks about right, but this is still a week plus out, and there’s little if any solid ground to stand on when projecting that far ahead – we just don’t have the skill that far in advance.  At that point, you start looking at climate and trends.  The jury is out on that.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Today - Periods of clouds and sunshine, maybe some flurries or even a touch of light snow, minimal accumulation.  High 18, wind WNW 4-8 MPH.  Wind chills stay around 10.

Tonight – Slow clearing, bitterly cold late as the high rolls in.  Lows near 0, wind chills down to -10 possible.  Wind NW 3-6 MPH.

Tuesday – Mostly sunny, frigid.  High 16, winds turning S 3-8 MPH.  Wind chills again near or in single digits.

Tuesday night – Mostly starry and cold, lows near 0.  Wind chills around -10, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday – Increasing clouds and milder, we can’t rule out a snowflake or two, high 21.

Thursday – Some mixed sunshine and the mildest day of the seven, high 29.

Friday – Cloudy, some light snow, accumulations of an inch or two possible.  High 26.

Saturday – Periods of clouds and sunshine, high 21.

Sunday – Cloudy, some afternoon snow developing, high 25.

There’s your forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.