More Snow Before A Breather...

Good Morning!

We see a couple of more shots of snow, then the thawing gets underway, with temperatures edging near 40 toward the end of next week!  Let’s have a look:

CLEAR AND CRISP TO START:  A clear winter morning is on tap for south central Michigan with readings topping out in the 20’s.  We’ll start to pick up some clouds as the day rolls along, and those clouds will bring in some precipitation later.  We’ll keep them around in varying degrees until Monday afternoon, when our next serious snow-maker rolls in.

A DOUBLE-TAP OF SNOW:  The first of another twin-barreled events gets here late tonight and into tomorrow, with another fairly weak Clipper (upper disturbance) coming through and bothering the air just enough to touch off some light snow that won’t do a whole lot more than annoy you if you’re traveling.  I fully expect the snow out of this thing to stay under an inch.  That departs, then we get into the new work week, and that’s when we get the substantial snow.

A system works into the area on Monday, and that guy brings us from 2-4” of additional snow before departing early Tuesday.  My thinking is we could see some locally intense snowfall out of this, if the core of the low tracks over Indianapolis as it is forecast to do.  That’s a problem because after that, we start adding degrees to the temperature, and…

THE THAW GETS ROLLING: After the snow gets out of here Tuesday, we start adding some warmth to things.  I see that the computer forecasts have pulled back their expectations for high temperature for the tail end of the week which is a good thing.  Last night I saw the GFS forecast model printing something like 47 for Thursday, but that has come down to 39.  I was suspicious of that much of a warm-up all along, and I’m glad to see the change. 

We’ll start melting some of this snow alright, but it won’t be such a sharp warm-up that we see heavy-duty flooding – as it stands right now.  Bear in mind that we have had a rough winter.  The ground is frozen deeper than normal, we have more snowpack than usual, and more ice on lakes and rivers.  All of this gives the potential for a messy thaw anytime we get into above freezing air for a longer period of time.  Increased runoff and ice damming are the two issues we’ll likely have to prepare for.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Temperatures will return to winter levels next weekend, just in time for another snow system.  This one could be another pretty good sized snow, as computer modeling is suggesting that a low coming out of north Texas could phase up with an upper wave just a couple of states north.  If that happens, brace for another slap in the face from Old Man Winter.

Here’s the forecast:

Today – Sunny to start and cold, increasing clouds this afternoon with perhaps some snow, high 20.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH keeps wind chills down around  10 degrees.

Tonight – Cloudy, light snow, accumulations should stay under an inch, lows near 10, wind turning S 3-6 MPH.

Sunday – Cloudy, a touch warmer, high 27.  Wind SSW turning E 3-6 MPH.

Monday – Cloudy, snow developing by lunchtime, 2-4” possible by Tuesday morning depending on location, high 27.

There’s the forecast for you, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.