Summer Sails In...

Good Morning!

Let's get right to it.

SUMMER, SUMMER, SUMMER, SUMMERTIME:  The Summer Solstice occurred at 6:51 AM today, meaning season-wise, we kick off the second half, with today being the first day of Summer.  Get out and enjoy, clouds have moved off and we'll dry out.  The Summer Solstice also means that it's all downhill from here - the days start to gradually shorten from here on out.

FAIRLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN:  Not much change in the upper air dynamics expected the next several days, so we'll keep seeing a couple of days of clear, quiet weather, interspersed with some periods of showers and a few storms.  The upper air systems are basically locked into place, which means that disturbances and bona fide systems are confined to the same parts of the US.  Look at this chart:

500 MB (18,000 ft) Upper Air Chart - The heat dome is parked off Southern California, waiting to come ashore.  Westerly winds prevail, ridging is somewhat damped out.  Bona Fides 1 and 2 won't break camp until next week.  Some disturbances are able to filter through the middle third of the US, and daytime heating also has the greatest impact in that same area - bringing the best chance for PM showers/storms.

Two big beefy lows, one up by Alaska, the other off the Newfoundland coast, and a smaller, weaker one in central Canada all conspire to keep us fairly zonal in flow.  That means no truly brutal summer heat in the cards just yet, though we will see warmer, more humid conditions into next week.

DRY WEEKEND, WET START TO THE WEEK:  While I certainly can't say the chances of a PM shower are non-zero, they surely are the lowest they have been in quite sometime.  The weekend will have some mixed sunshine and seasonable readings, with an 81 on deck for Sunday.  Monday feels more like summer, as warmer, more humid air pushes in from the south.  I expect scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area Monday afternoon and evening, and those stay around in fits and starts through at least Wednesday.  Let's see what the Weather Prediction Center thinks about rains:

A fairly wet look for Michigan and the eastern two-thirds of the US according to the forecast map.  This suggests rainfall totals of up to an inch and a half between now and 8 AM Thursday, with higher totals locally to the southwest of us.

SEVERE WEATHER?:  I don't really think so.  Maybe some localized heavy rain and perhaps marginally gusty wind, but nothing to be overly concerned with.  The Storm Prediction Center does think that perhaps the far southwest tip of lower Michigan has a crack at severe weather today.  Places like Benton Harbor and Bridgman for example.

Here's what's anticipated down the line and a look at the forecast for the weekend...

Forecast:

I'll get the six day planner hashed out and posted for you later.  Have a great first day of summer!  Blessings.