May Ends Magnificently!

Good Morning!

The cloudy skies have moved away, plenty of sunshine even if it's a touch cool to start the day today!

I need to confess a bust - We had showers in the area yesterday, but while computer models did OK forecasting the general coverage area, all we saw were sprinkles or a quick shower here and there, as opposed to the more widespread rain I called for.  I'd be curious to hear if anyone in the area got much more than sprinkles.  Jackson got a couple of quick raindrops and that's it.  Radar stayed decidedly spotty as well. Now, time to lift the hood and see what's running under there...

NO SEVERE HERE:  The US as a whole is pretty docile over the next 72 hours according to the Storm Prediction Center.  The only severe risk they outline is on Saturday, and that's a Slight risk for severe storms in the High Plains, impacting parts of Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota and Nebraska.  No storm chances per SPC at all in the Great Lakes.

VERY QUIET STRETCH & A FINE WEEKEND AHEAD:  Upper-air ridging to the southwest, meaning very warm weather into the western Great Plains, Rockies, and the Desert Southwest, with some quasi-zonal upper flow working through the Great Lakes.  There's nothing but high pressure in the pipeline right now, so no weather issues to worry about.  A bit of northerly turn to the winds keeps things right around average or just a touch warmer temperature wise.  Keep the sun around but bump the temperature into the low 80's for the weekend.  Have a look at the national temperature map:

RAIN-FREE THROUGH SUNDAY:  Almost four days of rain-free weather on tap for you in South Central Michigan!  Model data doesn't even hint at rain until Sunday night.  We start clouding things up late Sunday afternoon, then introduce a chance of showers again at sunset or later.  It's a big green light for anything you'd want to do outdoors before then.  With all that being said, as we warm up again, could we pop a random shower or storm?  Absolutely - it's summer in the Great Lakes.  Do I see that happening? Nope.

NEXT FREE LAWN WATERING?:  As it stands now, Monday and Tuesday are the next chances at showers and thunderstorms in the area, they'll also be the warmest days of the next six.  If we look at modeling, current thinking is an upper disturbance works into Michigan on Monday, getting us wet, then that's followed by a bona fide surface low that starts in the Plains and sits in central Wisconsin on Tuesday. It's close enough to give us some unsettled weather right through midweek.  Have a peek at the 5 Day Precipitation Map from the Weather Prediction Center:

This is a pretty damp look for the area, with a 2" of rain target sitting on Grand Rapids.  If this solution holds, expect some minor flooding issues, especially in Ionia and Clinton counties!

Now, this map appears at first blush to not jibe with the forecast, but what you're seeing is the result of that upper wave in here on Monday, and the rain triggered by Mr. Real Deal Low from Tuesday on.

Here's the big picture:

Nothing but beautiful clear skies in the area; just a bit of cloud in northern Illinois and far south Wisconsin:

And here's the forecast:

The extended outlook shapes up like this:

That's it!  I hope you have a great Thursday!  Blessings.