A Touch Of Rain - Then Back To The Good Stuff!!!

Good Morning -

We are nearing the end of the really spectacular weather we had the last several days.  I hope that you got to enjoy a restful Memorial Day holiday, as we kicked off summer in fine fashion.  Let's see what's changing here the next few days:

BLUE SKIES GET CLOUDY BRIEFLY:  The crisp blue skies that we enjoyed the last several days thanks to a high pressure center parked basically on top of us have given way to mixed and hazy sunshine as we head into this evening and tomorrow.  The high has moved on to the east some, allowing a disturbance or two to work into Michigan.  The bigger picture is a split flow pattern; fairly zonal across the northern half of the nation, and a definite ridge south and west.  Those two guys are parked over the majority of the lower 48 like a fat cat - and not moving a whole lot.  In time the ridge advances and expands into the Midwest and Great Lakes, but for now, there's enough wiggle room in the northern flow for small disturbances to sneak in, touching off some showers and a storm.  The good news is another lobe of high pressure is expected right behind today's little wave, so sunny skies will return, along with dry conditions!

HIT AND RUN RAIN:  I have said it many times before, but I will say it here again - computer forecast models stink at picking out the location and timing of summer convection in the absence of any real dynamic features (frontal boundary, dryline, upper wave, bona fide low), when you otherwise have enough moist air and heating to make the atmosphere floaty and unstable.  That being said, all the model data and maps I have reviewed thus far point to rain this afternoon and evening.  Therefore, the forecast includes periods of scattered to numerous showers and a couple of buried thunderstorms as we work into the back half of the day.  Neither I or the Storm Prediction Center see any severe weather in the offing - have a look at today's risk map:

SPC Day 1 Risk - Lower 2/3 of Michigan is "General T-Storms"

As you can see, all of the rough stuff is expected down in TX and LA.  Tomorrow and Thursday, Michigan gradually gets shaved out of the thunderstorm picture altogether!  Now...with the "SEE TEXT" area that SPC has placed over western IL into IA; I'm leaving open the possibility that we may see a strong storm this afternoon or tonight.  If that shows up, it could have gusty wind, and maybe some heavy rain.  Hail, if any, would only be green pea sized or smaller.  As I type this before lunchtime, there's a bit of fuss in WI and back over NE and IA on the radar, and the NE/IA one is the group I'm watching to see if it takes off and intensifies into an unruly mob of storms.

NO WORRIES ABOUT WARMTH:  I say that to tell you that we'll see mild summer conditions over the next several days, with the lion's share of the temperature readings topping out at 84 or below until next week.  Nighttime lows will actually be a bit on the cool side from Thursday through Saturday.  Forecast models are advertising lower 50's at night throughout South Central Michigan, assuming their solutions to future activity are valid.  All in all, a fine start to the summer in South Central Michigan!

Now that the detailed stuff is on the table - here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Leoni Township and Concord:

And here's the extended outlook:

I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.