Splendid, Then Damp, Great Weekend On Tap!!!

Good Morning!

Bright crystal clear blue skies in the area this morning, with wonderful weather on tap through tomorrow.  We'll add some showers and such to the mix as we head into a weekend with temperatures that could touch 70.  Let's have a look...

FORECAST MODELS WERE OPERATING WHILE IMPAIRED:  I busted WAY low on my temperature forecast yesterday.  I predicted 50, and the official high recorded just before 4 PM at the airport in Jackson was 61.  11 degrees off doesn't cut it on my watch!  All of the data available to me indicated much cooler air would be here for longer than it actually was.  The simplest explanation I have is that warmer air from the southwest stepped on the gas and barreled in here ahead of schedule.  The models were clearly missing something when the initial weather conditions were dropped into them and they set off to work.  I am still learning also, therefore it's more difficult for me to see when the models are out to lunch as opposed to a degreed met or forecaster with many years experience.  I'll get better.  This was a learning exercise.  Moving on...

PLENTY OF SUN ALL OVER THE PLACE:  Look at this crystal clear satellite image.  There's just a few clouds way northwest and way southeast.  The white you see in Michigan is un-melted  snow and ice on the lakes!

FINALLY, SOME SPRING WE CAN HANG OUR HATS ON:  How does some mid to upper 60's sound for you?  That's what the forecast data indicates, though I am leery of doing much more than mentioning the chance of a 70 right now (darned models)!

Milder air filters in as we get a more zonal flow.  That means the air travels basically from west to east across the US, without being shunted north and diving back into the country (colder air) or diving south then coming into the area from off the desert southwest (very warm air).  This look is just nice, mild Pacific air coming at us, with a few waves and disturbances working through that will drag surface boundaries with them.  Almost anytime you get one of those tracking through, you'll introduce a chance at some showers and storms...

SPEAKING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS:  Michigan gets in on a crack at at some showers and thunder tomorrow.  Have a look at this forecast map from the Storm Prediction Center:

As you can see, nothing major to worry about until late in the weekend, but it is the season for April showers (and storms) to bring flowers in May!  If we get anything Thursday, these will be widely scattered to scattered showers and storms.

A FINE WEEKEND ON TAP:  Once we get through Thursday, with it's chance of scattered showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two, get ready for some sunshine and VERY nice weather through the weekend!  Average highs around the area are right around 57 degrees this time of year, some places could tack as many as 11-13 degrees onto that number, making for a 70 as a possibility.  We'll have to see how it plays out, as personally, after the abysmal performance the other day, I have my doubts about that number.

Here's a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking regarding rain for the next five days:

As you can see, some scattered showers in the area adding up to about an inch and a half of precipitation, the lion's share of this looks to show up tomorrow.

LOOKING AHEAD:  What can I say?  Mild weekend with a lot of sun, perhaps the occasion to mention a scattered shower or two.  Sunday night into Monday though, look out.  A vigorous frontal system comes through, bringing in showers and thunderstorms, then sledgehammering the mercury, sending us back into late winter or very early Spring readings, with temperatures that may not leave the middle 40's!  Here's a look at a forecast temperature map:

You'll want to perhaps cover your tender plants Sunday night or Monday night.  I'll detail that more as we get closer to it and the forecast computers refine their ideas on how it all plays out.  This whole cold snap idea should be gone Wednesday, if the forecast models have a grasp of the situation.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and South Central Michigan:

There's a look at your forecast!  I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.