Thankfully, it looks like the blog area will dodge a bullet. No tornadoes reported, though I am sure there will be some wind damage reports as the evening progresses. We'll take that compared to Kokomo, IN and Washington, IL where tornadoes wreaked havoc and caused destruction in their path. At any rate, let's look at the area and see what we have.
DIMINISHING THREAT: The ongoing thunderstorms in the area have a decided linear look to them, so the primary damage mode will be straight-line wind damage as opposed to tornadic damage. Spin-up tornadoes can and do occur with little warning and they can cause significant damage. As the evening progresses, the combination of cooler, more stable air, and the loss of daylight, along with the line of storms using up the energy in the air should make for a fairly quiet evening, with scattered showers and perhaps a lonely thunderstorm still possible. I think we'll see the SPC pull the plug on the tornado watch soon.
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEK: The rain and such should be all but over by midnight at the latest, and we have colder air and clearing filtering in behind this frontal system. Temperatures run from 10 to 20 degrees colder than today to start the new work week, and things run right around seasonal, with highs in the low 40's until the weekend, when the mercury struggles to get above freezing.
SOME RAIN POSSIBLE - SNOW CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND: We see some lingering shower chances until midnight or so tonight, then things get fairly quiet until later this week, when some rain and snow mixed becomes a possibility. Look for the next batch of precipitation after tonight to show up around Thursday, rain that becomes a rain/snow mix as we get toward the weekend. That appears for the moment to be a hit or miss affair as well, with forecast models suggesting at best a 4 in 10 shot at precipitation.
Here's a look at the forecast:
Tonight - cloudy skies, some lingering showers and cooler, rain should taper off after midnight. Lows near 34, winds W 15-25 MPH gusting to 35 MPH.
Monday - mainly cloudy, perhaps some peeks of sun after 11 AM, high 42. Wind SW turning NW 15-25 MPH and gusting.
Monday night - clearing skies and colder, winds diminishing. Lows near 30. Winds NW slackening to 7-12 MPH.
Tuesday - mainly sunny, cooler, high 40. Winds NW 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing afternoon clouds, high 45.
There's a look at your forecast through the middle of the week. Stay safe! Blessings.
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