Keepin' It Hot...Then Stormy

Good Morning!

The heat stays on for another couple of days, then some relief with some showers and thunderstorms and temperatures dropping off as much as 25 degrees.  Let's dive into everything and have a look:

MORE BRUTAL HEAT:  Take a look at this upper air map from the NAM forecast model.

Look at that huge 594 heat dome over a good chunk over the eastern half of the US!  That thing is good for temperatures into the 90's, with heat index values pushing 100.  That's why we have a heat advisory in effect for today.  I don't expect this heat to really go anywhere until Friday or Saturday, when we roll back temperatures as much as 25 degrees in some places.  We'll be into the 70's for Saturday and Sunday, then warm back up some for next week.  The good is news is the air shouldn't be as tropical.  I will gladly trade these upper 60's low 70's dewpoints for something that is drier.  Speaking of tropical air, this sticky, muggy stuff is prime air for some...

SHOWERS & STORMS FILLING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS:  What I am seeing is a setup for strong to severe storms coincident with the arrival of a trough and frontal system this weekend.  Today some scattered storms could develop, any that can fire will drop heavy rain and perhaps some hail.  The Storm Prediction Center is eyeing the better chances at storms for tomorrow and Friday.  Supercell thunderstorms with severe wind, large hail, and even tornado possibilities are on the table for Friday, as shown in this map from SPC...

A good chunk of lower Michigan with a 3 in 10 shot at severe weather for Friday.  We'll know more as we get into this afternoon and tomorrow.

Now bear in mind that we could get some showers and storms today, but these don't appear to be the big "in your face" storms, the upper air setup his enough buoyancy for storms, but not a ton of shear to spin them.  This setup for tomorrow and Friday has been consistently shown by the models for the last few days, so be aware.  For today though just another hot and steamy day with the mention of a pop-up storm or two in the afternoon.  Some quick bucket downpours maybe and that's it, take a look at the 5 day rain total map from the Weather Prediction Center:

Only about a half inch for us thru Sunday.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Seasonable warmth and much less humid through the end of the forecast window and into the end of the month.  Here in south central Michigan average temperature is right around the mid 80's and we should be right in the ball park for that, with lower humidity, better chances for rain next Tuesday and Wednesday, then it looks like we could round out the month of July with a wet stretch.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas:

Today, mainly sunny, hot and humid, a stray afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out, high 92, heat index values around 100.  Wind WSW 3-5 MPH.

Tonight, some clouds, still warm and humid, nighttime lows only roll back to 71, wind WSW 2-5 MPH.

Thursday,  mixed sunshine with clouds developing from north to south, A PM shower or storm is possible north, hazy humid sunshine south with just the mention of an isolated shower or storm.  High 90.  Wind SW 3-7 MPH.

Tomorrow night, continued mainly clear, some spots especially north could see a scattered shower or thunderstorm, and storms could be strong or even severe.  Lows near 70, wind WSW 3-5 MPH.

Friday, increasing clouds, afternoon showers and thunderstorms, we expect some strong to severe, high 90.  Wind becoming SW increasing to 10-15 MPH.

Saturday, cloudy, showers and thunderstorms continue through at least midday, then clearing, cooler and less humid, high 83.

Sunday, much cooler and comfortable under mainly sunny skies with a few passing clouds, high 76.

Monday, partly sunny and continued pleasant, high 78.

Tuesday, partly cloudy skies, a couple of PM showers are possible, a bit warmer, high 81.

There's your forecast for the next several days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.