Wet & Stormy Week...

Good Morning!

It's a very humbling experience for me as a forecaster to look at when things go wrong.  I am looking at my seven day graphic right now and seeing that I was no where CLOSE to what actually transpired and is in effect right now.  It's a reality check for me to see just how much I have yet to unravel with respect to the weather, and being reasonably accurate with forecasting it for you.  I will start logging my forecasts for you and let you know how I am doing after a month of two of data collection.

Now to current business.  Some showers and scattered thunderstorms are moving through the area as we speak, right now they are in the north zone of the blog.  Lansing and St. Johns will be seeing those storms depart soon as the whole line is lifting north and away from us.  It looks like a potentially rough ride for severe weather today, let's take a deeper dive and have a look at it.

SEVERE WEATHER:  You know that something is potentially brewing when I lead off with severe weather in the discussion post.  Today the Storm Prediction Center has us in the "slight" risk category for severe weather.  Let's take a look at the maps and you'll see what I mean.

SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook (wind 58 MPH or better)

The slight risk in and of it itself is just something to file away and make a note to pay closer attention to the weather today than you otherwise might.  The thing within this that concerns me is that we are forecast with a 1 in 3 shot at severe wind, which is anything over 58 MPH.  That means possibly severe storms with damaging wind as the primary bad news.  Just keep it in mind as the day evolves.  There was plenty of severe weather out in the Plains last night, as Nebraska and Kansas were raked by tornadoes.  Unfortunately, the potential is there for additional severe weather out there today and tonight.

RAIN:  We won't be seeing much sunshine today, as a system rotates through the area, bringing us more showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening after we get some daytime heating in to destabilize the atmosphere.  Let's have a look at the Weather Prediction Center's forecast for the next few days regarding rain:

5 Day rain forecast valid thru 8 AM Sunday June 2nd

Look at that 4.3 inch bullseye down by Benton Harbor!  Some definite flood issues possible here and around the area, so be aware of that as well.  3.5 to 4" of rain is the forecast for this part of the world, and that looks in the ballpark, as we see showers and thunderstorms in the area as a few upper waves move through around an increasingly deepening trough.  We see more rain than dry weather, with only a couple of windows of dry conditions and sunshine to speak of right through the weekend.

TEMPERATURES:  We ride the crest of a warming trend over the next few days, culminating in a high of 87 on Thursday, then after a cold front comes through, we drop back into the lower 70's for the weekend, but we can't really shake the rain for any length of time, so I personally want to dial back those temperatures just a bit.  If we get all of the cloud cover and rain that multiple forecast models are saying we should, then the GFS is a bit ambitious in his predictions.  Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday and then again next week look to be the best chances at staying dry.

Plenty of cloud cover on the visible satellite, and you can see the shower and storm activity in the NEXRAD composite overlay:

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Rives Junction:

Today, cloudy, rain stops mid-morning, some breaks for sunshine in spots, then showers and thunderstorms re-develop later this afternoon and evening, some could be severe, high 75.  Wind SW 7-14 MPH.

Tonight, periods of showers and some gusty thunderstorms, lows near 65.  Wind SW 8-16 MPH.

Wednesday, showers and couple of thunderstorms persist until late afternoon, warmer, high  82.  Wind SW 7-14 MPH.

Wednesday night, clearing skies, lows near 64, wind SW 6-12 MPH.

Thursday, increasing clouds as the day progresses, a stray shower or lonely thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, high 85.

Friday, cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing, high 83.

Saturday, continued overcast with periods of hit or miss showers and thunderstorms, high 80.

Sunday, still cloudy, cooler, chance of showers, high 73.

Monday, clearing skies, pleasant, high 72.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a good day!  Blessings.