Mild, then BAM! Everyone Freezes!

Good Morning!

Just looking at some forecast data here while the place is quiet.  Big changes and big snow on the way in some parts of Michigan, let's have a look:

SUMMARY:  As I write this at 1 AM, all quiet in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.  A low is currently causing some light snow in the Upper Peninsula, and that should be gone by lunchtime tomorrow.  Temperatures climb to unseasonably warm 40's in this part of Michigan.  The changes come Saturday night as Arctic air kicks in the door and drops temperatures to teens and single digits.  Both the GFS and NAM forecast models agree that a pretty solid 1000 millibar low tracks across the upper part of the mitten, bringing significant snow up that way.  More on snow below.  Temperatures stay bitterly cold through most of next week, not even coming close to freezing.  We spend more time near zero during the nights than anything!

SNOW:  Taking a look at forecast data and such, I will say the models seem to like a slight chance of snow on Monday and Wednesday, but at this point, I don't buy it.  In South Central Michigan, we won't have lake effect to worry with, so with it being so cold, you don't have much of a trigger to create clouds or snow, like icy air blowing over the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.  Now up north where the low should track, and over on the lake shore, there will be snow issues.  Bear that in mind if you need to go up by Mt. Pleasant or points north, or west of US-131 tomorrow evening or Sunday.  The National Weather Service says a quarter-inch of liquid precipitation between now and 7 PM Thursday, and that looks about right, meaning I would be surprised to see much more than 2" snow total over the next several days.  Of course, if strong winds can push the lake effect snow bands well inland, we could see more than forecast, especially west.

Complete forecast later.