One More Nice Day...Then The Heat Returns!

Good Morning!

Another winner of a day is on tap for the South Central Michigan Weather Zone.  We are coming off of the coolest night in quite sometime, with temperatures falling all the back into the 40's for nighttime lows.  We'll enjoy another day of comfy temperatures both day and night, even if a couple of degrees warmer on both sides of the clock, then the heat that has baked the Plains pays us a visit here...One deeper dive coming up!

TEMPERATURES: We stay seasonably mild today, temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70's to around 81, depending on if you're in the north or south zone of the blog.  We'll see light northwest winds, and a night with temperatures in the lower 50's across the board, then the mercury starts climbing in time for the latter half of the work week, with temperatures making a hard run at 100 in time for the weekend. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the bunch.  Some spots in the south zone of the blog may actually post 100 before it's all done, as the blistering heat from the Plains makes it way in.  The ridge containing the heat dome expands it's reach in the coming days!  Here's a look at a map showing that ridge and the heat dome under it.

NAM Model Forecast valid 8AM EDT 6/28/12

The slight arch though the middle of the US is your ridge.  It's actually showing flatter here than it is now and will be through tomorrow.  Under that is your heat.  The 588 line is generally good for surface temperatures that are 70's or better that early, warming well into the 80's, and the 594 line will generally give you readings at or above 80, warming well into the 90's as the day progresses.  These are rules of thumb and not a guarantee that you'll see it that warm that early!

Here's another map showing current temperature readings around the US.  You can see some areas are already near or at 80 degrees in the Plains, and most people haven't even made it to work yet!!!

US Surface Temperatures as of 9:00 AM EDT

RAIN:  Yeah, right.  Not unless it's coming out of a sprinkler or garden hose.  Nothing on tap for the next several days, computer modeling is suggesting a chance of some rain on Friday and just a hint of a chance of rain on Sunday, as a teeny-tiny shortwave trough moves through, bringing a slight chance at some isolated or widely scattered shower activity of the quick wetdown variety.  For my money, from the data available so far today, I am not buying the whole Friday rain deal, so I will bypass the Friday mention of rain that the GFS computer model is asking for, and hang my hat on a Sunday chance of rain.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks for the next five days as far as precipitation...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

According to the NWS, we pick up about a quarter inch of rain the next five days.  We can use it, as we are over an inch below normal for the month of June, and factoring in being behind in May, the drought is getting worse, not better.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Severe heat, if there is such a thing as that in the severe weather category.  As far as storms go, nothing really in this neck of the woods.  We see a low 5% chance of severe weather on day three of the forecast from the Storm Prediction Center, here's that map for you...

More than a few of the ingredients for severe weather will be around here and at least somewhat lined up later this week, but it's going to be so darned warm, that a nice tight lid will stay on the atmosphere.  You have to have warm, unstable rising air as a main ingredient to kick off strong or severe thunderstorms, and that lid or "cap" of warm air will act as a ceiling, preventing air from rising high enough to create storms.  Here's a look at the Day Three map from the SPC, valid at 8AM Thursday morning:

Day 3 Severe Outlook Map

Winds calm and 59 degrees in Jackson under sunny skies, nothing on Grand Rapids NEXRAD to speak of, and the satellite is clear as well.  

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Michigan Center:

Today, sunny skies, a few passing clouds during the day, warmer, with a high of 79, northwest winds calm to 6 MPH.


Tonight, another good night for stargazing or relaxing under the stars, a bit warmer than last night, low near 53, winds becoming SW 6-12 MPH.


Wednesday, clear skies, warmer and seasonable as the hot air in the Plains starts filtering in, high 85.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday night, mainly starry skies, a some clouds move through during the night, warmer with a low only down to 65, winds SW 6-12 MPH.


Thursday, increasing clouds during the day, we still see some sun, very warm, high of 89.


Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, high 88.


Saturday, partly sunny, warm, high 85.


Sunday, a mixed bag of clouds and sunshine, high 85.


There's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings.