Still Damp, But Cooler...

Good Morning!

It looks like the stormy weather that we have had the last 12 hours or so will be in the way out of here, at least for awhile, as we settle into more stable cooler air.

SEVERE WEATHER:  We had plenty of it to go around yesterday and last night.  Several reports of large hail, including 2 inch hail in Jackson County, and some more in Washtenaw.  Thank goodness, no tornadoes were reported.  Currently just some light shower activity with a  couple of embedded storms near Flint, Hastings, and Ionia this hour.

The Storm Prediction Center has quite a bit more "slight" risk territory in the mix this morning, but we are not currently a part of it.  Pretty much all of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and a good chunk of South Dakota are in the "slight" risk area.  The southern half of lower Michigan is in the "general" risk category, so any storms that fire today should be just the garden variety storms.  Showers and a few storms have been firing persistently all night long along the I-96 corridor, and as the day progresses that line will slowly continue dropping south through the state.  On the north side of that in the cooler, more stable air, storms are less likely to fire.

Here's the risk maps from SPC, each valid at 8AM as always.

Day 1

Day 2

I didn't include Day 3 which is Sunday, because the risk is well away from Michigan, over southwest Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

RAIN:  Most areas got a good soaking of rain yesterday with the storms moving through.  There are some Flash Flood watches up for another couple of hours, and one warning, in Shiawassee County, until 9AM.

The National Weather Service is saying we'll get pretty wet over the next five days, and based on the modeling, this looks like a pretty good bet.  We'll see rain taper off midday today, then a small chance of rain for Cinco De Mayo, and again to start the new week.  It looks like Monday will be the next day with a solid chance for rain.  Here's the latest map showing an inch and a half of rain for the next five days as the lowest total in the area:

TEMPERATURES:  The forecast for the next few days is much cooler on the backside of this front that is bringing the rain.  You knew the storms were going to be strong with an almost 20-degree temperature swing between the warm and cool sides of the front.  Mid 80's were the rule around much of South Central Michigan yesterday, today we'll warm back into the middle 70's in most spots today.  Here's a look at temperatures around the US at this hour, and the local Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image, showing some showers and embedded thunder up around Grand Rapids, west to the lake shore:

And here's the local forecast:


Today, mainly cloudy skies, perhaps a peek or two of sun, showers and thunderstorms should taper off by lunchtime but could re-develop this evening, high near 77, SW winds turning N 10-15 MPH.


Tonight, cloudy skies, a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm, lows down to 52 with ENE winds 7-14 MPH.


Saturday, mostly cloudy skies, with a few sunshiny breaks in the clouds, cooler, high near 72, winds E 10-15 MPH.


Saturday night, cloudy skies, cooler, nighttime lows drop to around 47, winds ENE 5-10 MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, cooler, high near 68, ESE winds 7-12 MPH.


Monday, mainly cloudy, seasonable, chance of scattered showers or a roaming thunderstorm, high near 70.


Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies, cooler, chance of scattered showers, high near 66.


Wednesday, cloudy skies, cool, chance of widely spaced showers, high only 60.

There's a look at your forecast the next 5 days, I do hope you have a wonderful Friday!  Blessings.