We have started a beautiful day in Jackson, with temperatures already into the 40's and no frost or freeze issues from the prior night. We haven't been able to say that in the last few days!
The late season snowstorm is FINALLY beginning to wind down a bit out east, with some spots in NY and PA reporting up to a foot of snow in higher elevations. Most places out there that had snow saw 3-6 inches of snowfall since the whole event started late Sunday into early Monday. There is still some snow falling, especially higher up in connection with the storm.
The low that is powering that storm will eventually migrate northward into Canada and take the rain and snow along with it. Earlier this morning there were some showers that were being spun off by the low reaching into the thumb of Michigan, those have since tapered off as the low shows some indications of movement.
Closer to home, the mercury goes up a bit, but the chance for showers increases as well, especially for the weekend. Let's take a look...one deeper dive coming up!
TEMPERATURES: Temperatures start to moderate just a touch, as the entire pattern over the US resets itself a bit. The strong storm system over the Northeast retreats into Canada, breaking the logjam aloft and allowing the ridge that has kept the West warm to start expanding it's reach toward us. Winds turn southwesterly and warmer air starts to filter in on the front slope of the warm air dome. Currently the NAM is printing 68 as a high for Thursday, but for my money, right now that seems a little ambitious. We'll back that off and say 65 for the high, then cool it back down to the 50's for the weekend. More on this below, but the models are all saying that a surface low riding the front side of the ridge like a surfer rides a wave on water will push through, kicking off some rain as it does.
RAIN: We had a little bit of rain filter into the thumb off the backside rotation of that storm system that dropped all the rain and snow in the Northeast. That's long gone now. Our next shot at rain in South Central Michigan looks like tomorrow night into Thursday, with perhaps a passing shower or two, and then we get a more sizable risk of rain Saturday. The Saturday event looks wetter and longer duration than the Thursday one on the current model run, and I can buy that, based on a forecast surface low with decent mid-level support riding a west wind without having to detour around a ridge or trough. Here's what the National Weather Service's idea of the next 5 days looks like rain wise:
The bottom three counties in the South zone could see up to three-quarters of an inch of rain, with less as you go north. That will change though, because rarely does a surface low track remain constant over repeated analysis, and a slight change can re-shuffle the deck as far as rain totals. We'll see about it.
SEVERE WEATHER: That picture has changed dramatically from yesterday. I was reporting how quiet it looked to be for the next few days in my last forecast, and now here we are with severe weather knocking on the door, just to our southwest over IL, IN, OH, and KY. Michigan is NOT in an elevated risk area at this point, so I can still say that we have just the chance of garden variety thunderstorms right now. Any that do form, if they get strong, will just blow on us and maybe drop some small hail. I don't see a lot of precipitation coming out of any storms that do form, and that's backed by the not very wet 5-day forecast from the National Weather Service. Here's a look at the severe weather picture. Each map is as always, valid at 8AM that day...
Here's Day 2, showing the closest severe risk to Michigan over the next 72 hours. With the "slight" risk being southwest of us in warmer air, that could expand northeast into Michigan.
Here's a look at current conditions and the Grand Rapids radar image: Clear as a bell in Jackson currently.
Now for the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Vandercook Lake and Rives Junction:
For today, mostly sunny skies, windy, high temperature of 57, winds NW 10-20 MPH.
Tonight, mainly starry skies, perhaps a passing cloud or two, nighttime low of 35, NW winds turn west and taper off to 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday, clear skies and warmer, we'll start to pick up some clouds later in the day as the warmer air begins venturing in - high of 64, winds WSW 5-10 MPH.
Tomorrow night, cloudy skies, a slight chance of an isolated shower, low of 48, winds WSW 5-10 MPH.
Thursday, cloudy skies early then clearing, chance of showers before 2PM, high of 65, winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Friday, clear skies to start, then clouding up later in the day, high of 50.
Saturday, mostly cloudy, chance of scattered to numerous showers, high of 53.
Sunday, showers clear off, then becoming sunny, high of 56.
Monday, sunny, pleasant, high of 58.
There's your forecast for this Tuesday. I do hope you have a wonderful day! Blessings.
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