Rain...Rinse...Repeat

Good Morning!

I certainly hope my day today goes better than yesterday!  Anyway, we’ve got a lot to talk about, so no dwelling on the past, let’s jump into it.  Be advised that today the posting will deviate somewhat from the usual format.

SEVERE WEATHER:  All eyes are on the Great Plains today, as the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a high likelihood of a tornado outbreak for later today into tonight.  Here’s today’s map from SPC.  As always, the map isn’t valid until 8AM each day…

You see the double-dip of “high” risk area for severe weather in the Plains.  Take note, as you see a “high” risk maybe three or four times per year, and the last time SPC issued a “high” risk more than 24 hours in advance was back in 2006!

Severe thunderstorms with dangerous lightning, downpours, damaging wind, large hail, and supercell storms that will spin off long-tracked, long-lived, dangerous, wide tornadoes are expected.  This setup looks to be perhaps even stronger than the one that spawned the 2011 Super Outbreak over the Deep South. 

My sincere hope is for no loss of life today, though that will depend on a number of factors, not the least of which is how well people heed warnings.  We shall see.  After that, things look to be a bit quieter headed into days two and three, here are those maps:

Here on day two, all of Michigan is under a "general" risk, the "slight" risk stays across Lake Michigan in Wisconsin.


Day 3 below, just low 5% chances, but nowhere close to Michigan. 

Here in South Central Michigan this morning, showers and thunderstorms are on deck, primarily in the south zone, with a couple of small showers in the north zone counties.  As it stands now, nothing severe is expected, though I would not be shocked at all to see some elevated storms with some heavy rain and stronger winds later on as the atmosphere heats up in the afternoon.  We’ll see showers and storms in periods today, so if you’re headed outdoors and you have activities like a picnic or something planned, bring an umbrella and plan on some disruption of activity.

TEMPERATURE:  Temperatures in the 50’s are the rule throughout the area.  We’ll see highs near 70 before the day is over.  70 or better is on tap for tomorrow, then rolling back, in front of a surface low that is expected to track through the northern half of the lower peninsula.  On the other side of that, we’ll see temperatures in the 50-60 degree range.

RAIN:  The computer models are having a rough time figuring the rain for the next five days.  We have gone from bone dry to two inches or better and back!  This forecast has us around one inch in the area.  Here’s the latest 5-day total precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service:

It looks like the intense low that is helping to kick off the severe weather in the Plains today will lose some punch coming this far north, so it will become an upper-level low, with not as much focused rain when it shows up here tomorrow evening into Monday.  Of course, that could change with the next model run!

Here’s a look at the current satellite image for the area showing lots of clouds...

And here is the current radar image for the area, showing showers moving through.  They are slowly tapering off right now.

And here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Pleasant Lake and Spring Arbor:

Cloudy skies today, periods of showers and thunderstorms, some may be strong, severe not expected.  High temperature 62, winds SW 10-20 MPH.

Tonight, still cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely in periods, nighttime lows only roll back to 55, winds SSW 7-15 MPH.

Sunday, cloudy, warm, showers and thunderstorms in periods again, high 76, winds SSW 10-20 MPH.

Sunday night, cloudy skies, still a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms early, rain then tapering off and becoming cooler, nighttime lows near 65.

Monday, cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely, high near 64, winds SW 10-20 MPH gusting to nearly 30 at times.

Tuesday, partly cloudy skies, much cooler, high near 56.

Wednesday, mostly clear skies, a few passing clouds, high 59.

That’s a look at the weather for the next few days here in Jackson County.  Stay tuned for updates on the blog on our weather, and the severe weather in the Plains.  Have a great day!  Blessings.