Ho-Hum Halloween...

Good Morning!

We finally are more or less dry with a few lingering showers in the area this time.  The respite is fairly brief, and there will be some wet goblins for Halloween.  Let's have a look and see what we have...

LOW LIFTING AWAY:  The strong low pressure system that brought the rain to us has lifted northeast and into Canada.  In it's wake, some clouds and cooler conditions.  We may pick up some wraparound precipitation as that low pulls away from us, but it won't be any major deal.  The winds last night were something else though!  30-40 MPH winds as that low swept through, and it's being shunted north by ridging that is building in across the eastern half of the US, Michigan is right where those two features are kind of rubbing past each other.

We'll have everything out of here by evening drive as high pressure takes hold for us.  Tomorrow looks to be seasonable, if a bit cool, with clouds in the area, then the next impulse starts working in.

WET HALLOWEEN:  Unfortunately, yes. Trick-or-treaters best have an umbrella with them, as we see some showers and such working into the area.  Clouds thicken up, and by 2 PM, we see more rain, primarily west of a line from roughly Coldwater to Flint.  Have a look at this map...

Here you see what the GFS FutureCast suggests for 2 PM and then 8 PM EDT on Halloween.  All of the Lower Peninsula in on the rain by the time we get into what is normally prime Trick-Or-Treat hours.

QUIET POST-HALLOWEEN:  After the costumes are put up and the goodies are sorted, that upper disturbance slides off to the east and we see a quieter pattern emerging.  I expect seasonable weather and varying degrees of cloud, but no rain chances to speak of until next Thursday, when another upper wave comes climbing the back side of the ridge.  If there's any consolation to the rain Saturday, it doesn't look to be intense, and I do expect some breaks in the action.  Have a look at the 5 day precipitation map:

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  I always have to toss in the "one model, one run, one solution" disclaimer, but here's what the GFS forecast model is thinking is our next major weather maker...

This is out in the extended period, my friend James Spann calls it "voodoo country" because it's so far out there that there's not a lot of confidence that you'd want to hang a forecast on.  Remember that forecast skill, for now, drops off sharply outside of seven days.  We'll watch this trend and see what, if anything comes of it.  Suffice it to say that a 989 millibar low is something to pay attention to any time of the year, and if that trend holds into the forecast window and the track gets moved south...can you say snowstorm?

Here's the forecast:

Today - A lingering AM shower or two, then clouds slowly thin as the day progresses, chilly, high 47.

Tonight - A mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 34.

Friday - Variably cloudy and a touch warmer, high 54.

Friday Night - Mainly cloudy some spotty showers possible, lows near 38.

Saturday - Cloudy, damp and rainy.  High only 52.

Sunday - Sunny and mild.  High 60.

Monday - Continued sunny, unseasonably mild.  High 66.

Tuesday - Clear and beautiful.  High 69.

Wednesday - Periods of clouds and sun, just the mention of an isolated shower, otherwise nice.  High 65.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Yep...Rain And Plenty Of It...

Good Morning!

Steady rain all around the area today, and it's going to stay with us like a nagging cold.  Lets have a look at what's going on!

BIG OL' RAIN SHIELD:  You can expect to find raindrops basically anyplace throughout South Central Michigan this morning.  In fact, a good portion of Lower Michigan will be in the raindrops today, thanks to a 996 millibar low tracking right across the upper Peninsula.  Here's a look at the radar...

If you're not seeing any rain on radar in your part of the world, trust and believe that you will as the day progresses.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION:  Forecast model data is suggesting that we really don't see large scale improvement regarding the rains and such until tomorrow sometime, and I can't say that we truly get everything out of here even then.  A brief break perhaps,  but the weekend will bring more damp, chilly weather.  With that being said, it appears that the south zone of the blog will be precipitation free sooner than the north, as we get some rain wrapping around the back of the low.  Further up in the Lower Peninsula, some spots from north of a line between Muskegon and Clare, could see some snow mixed with the rain falling.  Taking a look at the 5 day precipitation forecast, you can expect totals between now and 8 AM Monday morning to be about an inch or so throughout the area...

WHAT ABOUT HALLOWEEN?:  I hate to say it, but cold and wet conditions look to be on tap for the trick or treaters this weekend.  We get this round of rain and such out of here, but then another disturbance works in starting late Friday night and early Saturday.  By Saturday night, you can expect some showers and rainy conditions in the area, with breezy conditions making it feel that much cooler.  I'm not expecting us to make out of the 40's for Halloween, with the daytime high settling in right around 48 for Jackson and vicinity.

THE START OF NOVEMBER:  After the Halloween rains leave us, we'll be essentially rain-free until late next week.   Forecast data indicates the next impulse that comes through to bring anything to us comes in a week from tomorrow.  If the solution I'm seeing from the forecast models now verifies, expect some rain to be working into Michigan at some point between 8 AM and lunchtime next Thursday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Cloudy and rainy.  Perhaps a break in the action late this afternoon.  High 61.

Tonight - Rains become more scattered in nature, but still cloudy, most spots will get wet during the evening.  Lows roll back to near 40.

Thursday - Cloudy and much cooler, still the chance of some lingering scattered showers. High only 47.

Friday - Mainly cloudy, perhaps a few breaks for sunshine, a touch warmer,  High 50.

Halloween - Cloudy and rainy, trick or treaters will need an umbrella.  High 54.

Sunday - Partly sunny and warmer, high 62.

Monday - Mainly clear and mild, high 64.

Tuesday - Continued sunny and unseasonably mild.  High 65.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Double-Action Rain....

Good Afternoon!

Lots of things going on in the weather world today, and South Central Michigan will be feeling the impacts of the main even in a few days.  Let's jump in and talk about it...

PATRICIA IS VISITING MEXICO:  This dangerous Category 5 hurricane is coming ashore on the west coast of Mexico as I write this post.  As of 5 PM EDT, she has maximum sustained wind of 190 MPH, with a pressure of  900MB.  That's an improvement from earlier today, but an only 10 MPH decrease in wind and a few millibars of increase in pressure don't mean much in a Category 5 storm.  Her north-northeast movement  is expected to continue, and as she makes her way inland, the mountainous terrain is expected to start shredding her up.  By 2 PM tomorrow, she should be in central Mexico, and by 1 PM Sunday, what's left of her should be post-tropical, and entering the US between Brownsville and Laredo, Texas.

WITH LOVE, FROM PATRICIA:  Water vapor satellite imagery gives a telling clue to how the weather will unfold the next 24 to 48 hours in Michigan and points south.  Moisture from Patricia is already streaming into the US, with showers and thunderstorms already firing in Texas, where Dallas/Fort Worth and the surrounding area are experiencing flooding.  This will become more widespread as time progresses.  Most of Texas is under some type of Flood Watch, and Flash Flood Warnings are active for places such as Abilene, Waco, and Sulphur Springs.  All of that moisture will stream northeast into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes.  There's another player in the game though...

MR. BONA FIDE LOW:  This particular feature is right now located where Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska all come together.  That's the low that had it's own decent moisture supply to work with, using it to full effect and dropping upwards of an inch plus of rain in the High Plains, and depositing snows of up to 10" in the high country of Wyoming and Colorado, it also touched off severe thunderstorms in New Mexico before it got to where it is now.  That will continue the trip east, and forecast data doesn't indicate that it will weaken.  Therefore, we end up with that low intermingling with a juicy moisture supply.

This FutureCast map shows the redevelopment of showers and a couple of thunderstorms in the area for tomorrow evening.

TROPICAL CONNECTION:  The result of all of this is a tropical connection, where the low that is well removed to the north from the moisture and energy left over from Patricia as her ghost makes it's way northeast, and that sets the stage for some wet and even stormy weather.  The computer forecast models are suggesting that the ghost of Patricia and the low I alluded to earlier set up a one-two punch for the area.  The low to the west gets in here tonight and tomorrow, stays around thru Sunday before lifting out, then right on it's heels, Patricia lives on as an extra-tropical low, tracking northeast and leaving additional rains as a calling card.

This is a FutureCast map off the GFS forecast model, showing the low that is the ghost of Patricia as it tracks northeast having started way down in South Texas.  It will have some rain it, but no flooding issues that I see right now.

MUCH RAIN?:  I'm thinking we see about a half inch or so in the next 12-18 hours, some spots will see more.  I also think that we see a break in the action after about 11 AM in a lot of areas, then as the actual low and not the lead wave in front gets here, showers and storms re-develop tomorrow afternoon and evening, so any night football games in the area could contend with some raindrops.

A SHOT OF WARMTH:  Owing to the southerly winds that will push all the moisture into the area, we'll see readings well above the seasonal averages of 55 in the area for tomorrow. Most places will be in the mid 60's but where some cloud breaks allow some sun to peek through, you might run into a 70.  I did say a shot of warmth.  After the low moves by, winds turn northwesterly and we cool back into the seasonal regime of mid 50's.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  The ghost of Patricia should arrive sometime in the late Tuesday to midday Wednesday timeframe.  When that system gets here, expect showers and some thunderstorms in the area.  That system looks to push through fairly quickly, and on the back of that, just like before, northerly winds will cool temperatures that warm back into the lower 60's which is above normal for this time of year.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

Tonight - Cloudy, numerous showers and perhaps an embedded storm.  Lows roll back to 43.

Saturday - Continued cloudy, showers and a couple of thunderstorms persist, unseasonably mild.  High 66.

Saturday Night - Clearing, showers tapering off, lows near 45.

Sunday - Sunny and cooler.  High 55.

Monday - Sunny & seasonable, high 57.

Tuesday - Clear to start, increasing clouds with showers developing late as the next system works in, high 63.

Wednesday - Mainly overcast, periods of showers, high 56.

Thursday - Clouds slowly thin out, we can't rule out the chance of some lingering showers, high 53.

Friday - Clear skies and seasonably cool.  High 51.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.

Early Fall Freeze...

Good Morning!

Cold Air is firmly locked in over Michigan right now, with a Freeze Watch up for the entire area through Saturday.  It'll be a chilly night for high school football, and a brisk day for The War tomorrow as Michigan State and Michigan clash on the college football gridiron,  Let's get you set up...

FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT:  Make sure you take plants and furry friends inside,  Freeze watch up for the entire area through tomorrow, with forecast lows dropping to 28 degrees.

CHILLY WEEKEND PATTERN:  Very little change in the thinking for the weekend here in Michigan.  Average temperatures this time of year in the area are right around 57 degrees, and below normal is the idea.  Daytime highs today will struggle to hold the mid 50's.  Tonight, we'll fall thru freezing late, and tomorrow, we don't even see 50 in the area.

DID YOU SAY SNOW?:  Yes I did, and I'm not changing that idea any either.  I don't expect anything crazy or accumulation mind you, but don't be shocked to see some flakes fly tomorrow with readings in the 40's.  Now if you're in northern Michigan or across the bridge in the Upper Peninsula, from west of a Marquette/Escanaba line, you can expect some heavier snows and that might actually stick a little bit.  That same snow will track southeast and be across Traverse City, Gaylord, and Cadillac as we get into the overnight on Saturday.

CLEARING, SEASONABLE DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS:  We'll get the upper impulse out of here that brings us the raindrops and flaked today and tomorrow, and from there, it's just around average for this time of the year,  The colder air gets shoved back north of the birder and we climb back into above average readings, starting the new work week with 60's then marching higher from there.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Not much to see through the end of the forecast after we get through this cold snap.  Tuesday, a little wave rolls through that introduces some clouds into the mix, and I suppose we could see a lonely shower in a spot or two, no big deal.  The better chances for raindrops right now would be out of South Central Michigan, north of I-96.  Wednesday and Thursday, we see clouds in and out, and maybe the mention of a shower possible on Thursday afternoon, then we set up for a dry and seasonably pleasant weekend.

Forecast for you:

Today - Cloudy and cool, maybe a stray raindrop or two before 3 PM, high 51.

Tonight - Blanket and hot cocoa needed for Friday night football at your local high school, otherwise clearing, chilly, lows all the way back to 28.

Saturday - Clearing and chilly, daytime highs don't make it beyond 46.

Sunday - Sunny and seasonably cool, high 54.

Monday - Sunny to start, increasing clouds as the day progresses, warmer, high 60.

Tuesday - Mixed sunshine, some areas could see an isolated pop-up shower, much warmer.  High 70.

Wednesday - Partly sunny, pleasant.  High 67.

Thursday - Partly cloudy skies, just the mention of a quick hitting shower in a spot or two, cooler.  High 62.

Friday - Mainly sunny and seasonable, high 60.

There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Cold Snap Coming!!!

Good Morning!

Clear skies in the area right now, which means seasonably cool conditions.  We'll get colder and introduce some rain and dare I say it...snow flurries :-( into the forecast.  Let's break it all down for you and have a look.

COOLER THAN NORMAL:  Average temperatures in the area are right around 59 degrees, good luck seeing that for Friday night high school football or the college games on Saturday.  We'll be lucky to get above 50 for the weekend!  Add in the mention of some showers to boot, and you get the picture, not a very pretty fall one.

SOME RAIN (MAYBE FLURRIES TOO): Clouds will be on the increase over the next 24-48 hours as a cold front sags into Michigan and brings some polar air along with it.  I don't expect any widespread rain, just know that a few hit and run showers will be possible across Lower Michigan, primarily south of I-96 today and into this evening.  Lower chances of showers tomorrow across the area, but in exchange, that cold front will take about 10 degrees of warmth thank you very much.  Looking north to the Upper Peninsula, we note that by morning drive tomorrow, some snowflakes will be flying in the western part of the state!  I don't expect that here, we'll still be fairly warm.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:  Once we get through the weekend and get some of this upper troughing out of here and turn the winds a bit more westerly, we'll get back closer to seasonal readings in the upper 50's.  In fact, we'll warm up some, pushing into the 60's and flirting with a 70 for Tuesday.  Temperatures settle into the "at or slightly above normal" range for next week.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

Today - Mainly sunny to start, developing clouds later.  High 66.

Tonight - Cloudy, chilly, a shower or two can't be ruled out, lows near 37.

Friday - Cloudy, high only 50.

Saturday - Sunny and cold. High 48.

Sunday - Clearing skies, still chilly.  High 50.

Monday - Continued clear and warmer.  High 60.

Tuesday - Mainly sunny, some passing clouds, perhaps a stray shower or two.  High 67.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy, high 63.

There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!