Double-Action Rain....

Good Afternoon!

Lots of things going on in the weather world today, and South Central Michigan will be feeling the impacts of the main even in a few days.  Let's jump in and talk about it...

PATRICIA IS VISITING MEXICO:  This dangerous Category 5 hurricane is coming ashore on the west coast of Mexico as I write this post.  As of 5 PM EDT, she has maximum sustained wind of 190 MPH, with a pressure of  900MB.  That's an improvement from earlier today, but an only 10 MPH decrease in wind and a few millibars of increase in pressure don't mean much in a Category 5 storm.  Her north-northeast movement  is expected to continue, and as she makes her way inland, the mountainous terrain is expected to start shredding her up.  By 2 PM tomorrow, she should be in central Mexico, and by 1 PM Sunday, what's left of her should be post-tropical, and entering the US between Brownsville and Laredo, Texas.

WITH LOVE, FROM PATRICIA:  Water vapor satellite imagery gives a telling clue to how the weather will unfold the next 24 to 48 hours in Michigan and points south.  Moisture from Patricia is already streaming into the US, with showers and thunderstorms already firing in Texas, where Dallas/Fort Worth and the surrounding area are experiencing flooding.  This will become more widespread as time progresses.  Most of Texas is under some type of Flood Watch, and Flash Flood Warnings are active for places such as Abilene, Waco, and Sulphur Springs.  All of that moisture will stream northeast into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes.  There's another player in the game though...

MR. BONA FIDE LOW:  This particular feature is right now located where Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska all come together.  That's the low that had it's own decent moisture supply to work with, using it to full effect and dropping upwards of an inch plus of rain in the High Plains, and depositing snows of up to 10" in the high country of Wyoming and Colorado, it also touched off severe thunderstorms in New Mexico before it got to where it is now.  That will continue the trip east, and forecast data doesn't indicate that it will weaken.  Therefore, we end up with that low intermingling with a juicy moisture supply.

This FutureCast map shows the redevelopment of showers and a couple of thunderstorms in the area for tomorrow evening.

TROPICAL CONNECTION:  The result of all of this is a tropical connection, where the low that is well removed to the north from the moisture and energy left over from Patricia as her ghost makes it's way northeast, and that sets the stage for some wet and even stormy weather.  The computer forecast models are suggesting that the ghost of Patricia and the low I alluded to earlier set up a one-two punch for the area.  The low to the west gets in here tonight and tomorrow, stays around thru Sunday before lifting out, then right on it's heels, Patricia lives on as an extra-tropical low, tracking northeast and leaving additional rains as a calling card.

This is a FutureCast map off the GFS forecast model, showing the low that is the ghost of Patricia as it tracks northeast having started way down in South Texas.  It will have some rain it, but no flooding issues that I see right now.

MUCH RAIN?:  I'm thinking we see about a half inch or so in the next 12-18 hours, some spots will see more.  I also think that we see a break in the action after about 11 AM in a lot of areas, then as the actual low and not the lead wave in front gets here, showers and storms re-develop tomorrow afternoon and evening, so any night football games in the area could contend with some raindrops.

A SHOT OF WARMTH:  Owing to the southerly winds that will push all the moisture into the area, we'll see readings well above the seasonal averages of 55 in the area for tomorrow. Most places will be in the mid 60's but where some cloud breaks allow some sun to peek through, you might run into a 70.  I did say a shot of warmth.  After the low moves by, winds turn northwesterly and we cool back into the seasonal regime of mid 50's.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  The ghost of Patricia should arrive sometime in the late Tuesday to midday Wednesday timeframe.  When that system gets here, expect showers and some thunderstorms in the area.  That system looks to push through fairly quickly, and on the back of that, just like before, northerly winds will cool temperatures that warm back into the lower 60's which is above normal for this time of year.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

Tonight - Cloudy, numerous showers and perhaps an embedded storm.  Lows roll back to 43.

Saturday - Continued cloudy, showers and a couple of thunderstorms persist, unseasonably mild.  High 66.

Saturday Night - Clearing, showers tapering off, lows near 45.

Sunday - Sunny and cooler.  High 55.

Monday - Sunny & seasonable, high 57.

Tuesday - Clear to start, increasing clouds with showers developing late as the next system works in, high 63.

Wednesday - Mainly overcast, periods of showers, high 56.

Thursday - Clouds slowly thin out, we can't rule out the chance of some lingering showers, high 53.

Friday - Clear skies and seasonably cool.  High 51.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.

Early Fall Freeze...

Good Morning!

Cold Air is firmly locked in over Michigan right now, with a Freeze Watch up for the entire area through Saturday.  It'll be a chilly night for high school football, and a brisk day for The War tomorrow as Michigan State and Michigan clash on the college football gridiron,  Let's get you set up...

FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT:  Make sure you take plants and furry friends inside,  Freeze watch up for the entire area through tomorrow, with forecast lows dropping to 28 degrees.

CHILLY WEEKEND PATTERN:  Very little change in the thinking for the weekend here in Michigan.  Average temperatures this time of year in the area are right around 57 degrees, and below normal is the idea.  Daytime highs today will struggle to hold the mid 50's.  Tonight, we'll fall thru freezing late, and tomorrow, we don't even see 50 in the area.

DID YOU SAY SNOW?:  Yes I did, and I'm not changing that idea any either.  I don't expect anything crazy or accumulation mind you, but don't be shocked to see some flakes fly tomorrow with readings in the 40's.  Now if you're in northern Michigan or across the bridge in the Upper Peninsula, from west of a Marquette/Escanaba line, you can expect some heavier snows and that might actually stick a little bit.  That same snow will track southeast and be across Traverse City, Gaylord, and Cadillac as we get into the overnight on Saturday.

CLEARING, SEASONABLE DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS:  We'll get the upper impulse out of here that brings us the raindrops and flaked today and tomorrow, and from there, it's just around average for this time of the year,  The colder air gets shoved back north of the birder and we climb back into above average readings, starting the new work week with 60's then marching higher from there.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Not much to see through the end of the forecast after we get through this cold snap.  Tuesday, a little wave rolls through that introduces some clouds into the mix, and I suppose we could see a lonely shower in a spot or two, no big deal.  The better chances for raindrops right now would be out of South Central Michigan, north of I-96.  Wednesday and Thursday, we see clouds in and out, and maybe the mention of a shower possible on Thursday afternoon, then we set up for a dry and seasonably pleasant weekend.

Forecast for you:

Today - Cloudy and cool, maybe a stray raindrop or two before 3 PM, high 51.

Tonight - Blanket and hot cocoa needed for Friday night football at your local high school, otherwise clearing, chilly, lows all the way back to 28.

Saturday - Clearing and chilly, daytime highs don't make it beyond 46.

Sunday - Sunny and seasonably cool, high 54.

Monday - Sunny to start, increasing clouds as the day progresses, warmer, high 60.

Tuesday - Mixed sunshine, some areas could see an isolated pop-up shower, much warmer.  High 70.

Wednesday - Partly sunny, pleasant.  High 67.

Thursday - Partly cloudy skies, just the mention of a quick hitting shower in a spot or two, cooler.  High 62.

Friday - Mainly sunny and seasonable, high 60.

There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Cold Snap Coming!!!

Good Morning!

Clear skies in the area right now, which means seasonably cool conditions.  We'll get colder and introduce some rain and dare I say it...snow flurries :-( into the forecast.  Let's break it all down for you and have a look.

COOLER THAN NORMAL:  Average temperatures in the area are right around 59 degrees, good luck seeing that for Friday night high school football or the college games on Saturday.  We'll be lucky to get above 50 for the weekend!  Add in the mention of some showers to boot, and you get the picture, not a very pretty fall one.

SOME RAIN (MAYBE FLURRIES TOO): Clouds will be on the increase over the next 24-48 hours as a cold front sags into Michigan and brings some polar air along with it.  I don't expect any widespread rain, just know that a few hit and run showers will be possible across Lower Michigan, primarily south of I-96 today and into this evening.  Lower chances of showers tomorrow across the area, but in exchange, that cold front will take about 10 degrees of warmth thank you very much.  Looking north to the Upper Peninsula, we note that by morning drive tomorrow, some snowflakes will be flying in the western part of the state!  I don't expect that here, we'll still be fairly warm.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:  Once we get through the weekend and get some of this upper troughing out of here and turn the winds a bit more westerly, we'll get back closer to seasonal readings in the upper 50's.  In fact, we'll warm up some, pushing into the 60's and flirting with a 70 for Tuesday.  Temperatures settle into the "at or slightly above normal" range for next week.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

Today - Mainly sunny to start, developing clouds later.  High 66.

Tonight - Cloudy, chilly, a shower or two can't be ruled out, lows near 37.

Friday - Cloudy, high only 50.

Saturday - Sunny and cold. High 48.

Sunday - Clearing skies, still chilly.  High 50.

Monday - Continued clear and warmer.  High 60.

Tuesday - Mainly sunny, some passing clouds, perhaps a stray shower or two.  High 67.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy, high 63.

There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!

Fall Firmly Established...

Good Morning!

More unseasonably chilly weather in the area today, as there's no doubt in anyone's mind it's FALL.  Let's have a look at everything and see what we have...

RADAR SOUND ASLEEP:  Nothing to see on the radar right now except some ground clutter around Grand Rapids.  I expect it to remain that way right through at least Saturday afternoon.

RAIN FROM A DIFFERENT SOURCE:  I expect things to be quiet and cool in Michigan until late Saturday night/ early Sunday, then we get clouds and perhaps some showers in here courtesy of Hurricane Joaquin.  By Sunday morning, Joaquin is forecast to be a couple of hundred miles off shore and due east of the Carolinas, but the moisture connection will reach all the way up into Michigan.  Right now, I expect just some clouds and perhaps a stray shower on Sunday morning, no big deal.

While Michigan is expected to only pick up about a half-inch of precipitation during the next 5 days, just look at what Hurricane Joaquin is expected to do for the Mid-Atlantic coast.  That is some serious water there folks.  We'll be watching as the forecast computers refine their ideas of where the storm will go, as it could feed some rains into Michigan.

***Wild Card - There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding where Joaquin will move after he finishes the right turn down near Cuba and the Bahamas and heads north.  More and more of the members in the ensemble forecast models are suggesting that he doglegs left and landfalls in the Carolinas.  If that does in fact play out, we'll have to revisit the forecast for sure, as a tropical connector could reverse some rains into Michigan,

COLD UP NORTH:  A real sign of the times if you're like me and you don't much care for Old Man Winter.

Chilly conditions have brought out the frost and freeze warnings for all of the Upper Peninsula and even as far south as Gaylord and Grayling.  Let's get into some detail...

A WARM UP OF SORTS ON THE WAY:  The area is under the influence of an upper trough that is allowing cold Canadian air to spill down into the Great Lakes.  Over the next several days we'll see that reset and rearrange itself some.  That trough will dampen out some and allow more zonal flow to work in, effectively sealing off the truly cold Canadian air again, so those frost/freeze boxes will retreat back across the border.  Now I'm not expecting any unseasonably warm conditions in the area, but we do get to around where we should be.  Daytime highs usually park right around 65 with lows back to 46.  We stay cooler than normal for most of the weekend, then get back to seasonal when that trough damps out.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:   I think we get the high school football in without any issues Friday, but any area college games on Saturday could see a brief shower or two.  Clear the skies off some until another chance at some shower activity the middle of next week, and then a more robust rain threat for next weekend.  Temperatures will hold near normal for the second half of this seven day forecast period, but then appear to trend a bit cooler again as we get to ten days and beyond.

Forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Spring Arbor:

Today - Sunny and cool, high 60.

Tonight - Starry and chilly.  Lows roll back to 38.

Friday - Sunny to start, then increasing PM clouds, continued cool, high 61.

Friday Night - Mainly cloudy, just the mention of an isolated shower.  Lows near 40.

Saturday - Cloudy, a few stray showers could work through.  Chilly, daytime highs top out at 56.

Sunday - Cloudy, scattered showers in the area, a bit warmer.  High 64.

Monday - Continued overcast, we still can't rule out a scattered shower or two, high 63.

Tuesday - Becoming partly sunny and warmer.  High 66.

Wednesday - Developing clouds, some PM showers are possible.  High 64.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Stormy Then Splendid...

Good Morning!

Rain with a few thunderstorms working through the area at this hour as advertised.  We'll see plenty more in the next 36 hours or so, let's take a closer look.

RADAR CHECK:  A line of showers and storms is pushing through Jackson and South Central Michigan at this hour:

This is that lead impulse that I have been discussing with you the last few days.  It will continue to bring some shower and storm activity into the area as it works through.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR MOST SPOTS:  I expect the rains to impact the balance of the morning drive but be working out of here by say, 10 AM.  We'll keep clouds around the area in fits and starts, but I don't think any one area sees continuing rain right through the day.  In fact, some areas will have a bit of sunshine this morning, and all of that is setting the stage for what could happen this afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER:  The folks at the Storm Prediction Center have included pretty much all of Lower Michigan in a risk category for severe weather today.  Thankfully, it's the "marginal" risk as opposed to the "slight" that is present back to the south and west of us.  Here's a look at the maps:

SPC Day 1 Risk

SPC Day 2 Risk

Based on how things are expected to layout, Michigan is too far removed from the quality dynamic support that you need to kick off thunderstorms that are capable of spinning up a tornado.  That being said, expect storms that will have heavy downpours, marginally severe wind, and perhaps a bit of small to marginally severe hail.

REDEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS:  The first disturbance is gone for lunchtime.  I expect at least a few peeks of sun this afternoon, then as the more substantial shortwave disturbance and his associated cold front get to us, expect the clouds to increase and some pop-up showers and thunderstorms to fire out ahead of the main system.  Umbrellas are a good thing to have, especially if you're headed out to a high school football game this evening!  That being said, my thought is we should be able to get most of the games or your other outdoor evening plans done tonight without interruption.  Prevailing wisdom from the models suggests that the greater coverage of showers and storms doesn't really arrive until after 9 PM or so, but be prepared in case the second system shows up sooner than expected.  Your student-athletes will probably be close to home by the time the rains start to arrive in earnest.  Have a look at this map of the NAM Model FutureCast.  This is for 6 PM tonight...

One BIG caveat:  What we get tonight and the intensity will be directly correlated to how much sunshine we get across South Central Michigan between events this morning and afternoon.  Clearer skies than expected, plan on more widespread and higher intensity showers and storms.  If it stays cloudier than we think, back the intensity and coverage off a notch,  We'll have to watch it hour by hour.

SATURDAY?:  Pre-dawn showers and thunderstorms.  The good news is if you're headed out for some college football, most games should be be rain-free.  All indications are that the rain should be out of here by noon with clearing and cooler temperatures on the back side of the frontal boundary.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  After this quick double barreled hit today and tomorrow, it stays quiet for awhile.  The next shot at any widespread rain could be early next month!  Forecast model data suggests maybe a shortwave disturbance for early next week, but weak, with no dynamic support to create anything,  After that, our upper air flow stays zonal to flat ridged, with another wave and a disturbance coming through a week from Sunday, or 9/27, but that doesn't look to do much more than maybe cloud us up.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Springport:

Today - AM showers and any storms move off with the disturbance and leave cloudy skies with some breaks for sun.  Clouds redevelop PM, a few stray showers or even a roaming storm can't be ruled out.  High 76.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms re-develop, some could be marginally severe with heavy rains, high winds and even some small hail.  Lows near 61.

Saturday - Showers and thunderstorms should be pretty well gone by lunchtime,  Clouds start to thin in the afternoon, high 71.

Sunday - Sunny & seasonable.  High 69.

Monday - Clear & comfortable.  High 70.

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine and pleasant.  High 72.

Wednesday - Rinse & repeat Monday or Tuesday, sunshine and mild.  High 75.

Thursday - Continued clear and pleasant.  High 76.

Friday - Sunshine, nice.  High 75.

There's a look at your forecast.  I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.