Unsettled Weather This Week...

Good  Morning!

A variable spring-like pattern is setting up in the Great Lakes, and Michigan will get in on some of the weather.  Snow, rain, thunder, it's all on the board for this week.  Let's have a look at what's cooking!

SOME CLOUDS AND A TOUCH OF PRECIP TO START:  Right now in the area, cloudy skies with just a flurry or raindrop here or there.  Readings still chilly, in the 30's at all reporting stations.  The average in the area is 55 degrees this time of year, and we'll get there...later this week.  Most areas will top out at 46 today, with some clearing working in this afternoon.

PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW:  You'll pick up a few degrees of temperature tomorrow as the sun gets a bit more face time.  A bit of an upper ridge works into the area and bumps up temperatures slightly, with readings into the lower 50's, and just a couple of degrees below that seasonal average of 55.  Don't get used to what sun you do see though, as clouds roll in ahead of the next system.  The ridging and milder air gets in here really well on Thursday, and that sets up some...

POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THURSDAY:  Thursday will be the warmest day of the next few, with readings topping out at around 67 on the high side.  The warmer air working into the area will bring with it showers and the risk of a gusty thunderstorm or two.  In fact, have a look at these maps from the Storm Prediction Center:

The Day 2 map on top shows just a possibility for plain Jane thunderstorms basically from I-69 on west to the lake shore for tomorrow.  The Day 3 map right above this text shows a "marginal" risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.  This would be a damaging straight-line wind and small hail event if anything.  We'll keep a close eye on it and let you know what to expect.  As it stands now, Scattered to numerous showers with a couple of roaming thunderstorms appears to fill the bill.

CLEARING AND COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND:  After we get the rains out of here on Thursday, we'll have cooler conditions and clearing skies, with readings back down just a touch below average.  I'm thinking 48-51 for the first two days of the weekend will get it done as far as highs for those days.

EASTER SUNDAY:  Hard to believe, but Easter is almost upon us!  Sunday looks to be a bit unsettled if you're planning an Easter Egg hunt.  Daytime high Sunday should be 50, but it will be breezy, with partly to mainly cloudy skies, and a 3 in 10 chance of showers.  So a jacket is a must, and an umbrella close at hand would not be a bad idea at all.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Brooklyn:

Today - Cloudy skies, a brief shower is possible through early afternoon.  High 46.  Wind turning NE 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Clearing, seasonably chilly, low 30.  Winds NE 4-8 MPH.

Wednesday - Mainly sunny with a few passing clouds. high 52.  Winds ESE 5-10 MPH.

Thursday - Increasing clouds, warmer, scattered to numerous PM showers and maybe a rogue thunderstorm.  High 67.

Friday - Mixed sunshine, cooler, high 50.

Saturday - Mainly sunny, perhaps some passing afternoon clouds, cooler still, high 47.

Easter Sunday - Mainly cloudy, perhaps a few peeks of sun, a couple of showers can't be ruled out. High 48.

Monday - Partly sunny, a bit warmer, just the mention of a shower possible in spots, high 54.

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ENTIRE STATE OF MICHIGAN

Good Evening,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire state of Michigan - here's the part that impacts Jackson and Lansing....

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM
EST TUESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

 * SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
   MORNING.

 * ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
   POSSIBLE.

 * FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.

IMPACTS...

 * SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW AND ICE.

 * SLOWER TRAVEL SPEEDS ANTICIPATED AS ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD
   DETERIORATE.

 * ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE AS ICING ON TREE BRANCHES
   MAY RESULT IN THEM FALLING ON POWER LINES.

Winter's Version Of Slip N' Slide Tuesday...

Good Morning!

Far too long since I have posted here I know, but it's been more challenging than expected to make the time to do two blogs and do them both well.  I'm reluctant to close this one because I do see that people still check it, at least when it comes to high impact weather, which is exactly what you'll see in the next 48 hours.  Let's have a look...

SUNSHINE TODAY:  We note some partly cloudy skies in the area at this hour, but for the most part, there is plenty of sunshine to be had, with readings in the 20's at most of the reporting stations.
Readings will get into the mid 30's, and that brings us into some...

PROBLEMS IN THE AREA:  We get into a messy and icy regime for tomorrow - have a look at this map:

As you can see with the markings, the blog area is south of the freeze line, but enough moisture and warm air are mixed up in the bottom 5000 feet of air that we see a mixed bag of precipitation.  Sleet and maybe even a bit of freezing rain are in the picture, so needless to say, be careful traveling tomorrow late morning and into the afternoon hours.  Have a look at this graph:

The model average regarding freezing rain is about .10 inch in the Jackson area.  Other parts of south central Michigan have a similar looks as far as forecast model data is concerned.

The good news is that we expect everything to be out of here by say, 9 PM.  That being said, you can expect some lingering backside of the front snowfall basically from I-96 south.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN:  After the messy wintry mix tomorrow, a cold Canadian high settles into the area and will clear out the skies, temperatures chilly, in the teens, struggling to reach 20.  Improving reading for the weekend, as south central Michigan gets closer to the freezing mark. Still about 10 degrees or so below normal, but not bad.  Average highs in the area run right about 42 degrees.

FAIRLY QUIET THEREAFTER:  Not much going on after that, perhaps a bit of lake effect snow, then next Monday and Tuesday, a couple of clippers work into the area, cloudy skies and a bit of light snow moving through.  NO BIG DEAL right now.

Here's the forecast:

This afternoon - Increasing clouds, chilly, high 29.  Wind WSW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight - Mostly cloudy, perhaps a stray snowflake or two, low 15.  Wind SSW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday - Overcast, wintry mix developing, all modes of precipitation possible.  High 35.  Wind SE to SW 7-14 MPH.  Be prepared for freezing rain which will leave behind possibly a tenth of an inch of ice.

Wednesday - Clearing skies and cold, high 21.

Thursday - Sunny skies, cold, high 18.

Friday - Passing clouds, just a touch warmer, high 19.

Saturday - Mainly clear, perhaps a passing cloud, milder, high 35.

Sunday - Becoming cloudy, a quick hit of snow cannot be ruled out, high 31.

I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

A (Small) Break In The Bitter Cold...

Good Morning!

Still plenty of bitter, nasty cold to go around!  Here's a look at the wind chill values as I write this, and there is not a single solitary wind chill value on the positive side - have a look at this:

-15 in Jackson, -16 in Lansing and Ann Arbor, the closest to zero we have right now is -2 in Kalamazoo.

The pain continues for the foreseeable future too.  I know that's not what you wanted to hear, but that's what it looks like here.  With the exception of Saturday, I don't anticipate any real moderation in readings until after the first of the month!  The air pattern setup is similar to January of 2014, when we had a lengthy cold air outbreak that sent temperatures plummeting to the levels currently in the area.

STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST:  Cold, northwest winds, lake effect snow.  I could leave it at that and be on the mark, but you need at least some detail, so let's have a look at it.

BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY:  A slight reprieve from the bitter cold to start the weekend with temperatures right around freezing.  That's the warmest it's been in awhile!  The GFS forecast model is suggesting a high of 32 for Jackson and 30 for Lansing.  Then after that, it's back to the cold with readings no higher than say, 21 in the area.

LOWER SNOW CHANCES:  After we get through the weekend, the snow chances inland diminish, though the lake shore will still have to deal with that pesky lake effect. In the snow box, each day will have a chance of light to moderate snows.  The good news is that I don't expect them to spread eastward until Wednesday, when a low pressure center slides north of Michigan, as that looks like enough to trigger at least some light snow in the area.  We'll have to see how that unfolds over the next couple of days.

QUIET UNTIL EARLY MARCH:  After the Wednesday weather maker, the next chance of snow in the area looks to be early March, when a good sized storm slides just under Michigan, putting the blog in the heavy snow part of the storm as it tracks east.  Now this is almost two weeks out, so just know the forecast will change.  You can't hang a hat on anything but trends that far out.  The only reason I mention it is because I have seen that storm feature persist for a few runs now, with the timing changing somewhat.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Partly cloudy, frigid.  High 5.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH makes the coldest wind chill values -10.

Tonight - Skies clearing, becoming bitter cold.  Lows near -11, winds turning WSW 3-6 MPH make the coldest wind chills -15.

Friday - Becoming cloudy, high 10.

Saturday - Cloudy, snow developing, max accumulations expected to be about 1.5".  High 32.

Sunday - Partial clearing, colder.  High 17.

That's how things look through the weekend.  Have a great day!

Trying To Cope With The Deep Freeze...

Good Morning!

Cloudy and snowy - readings still very cold, but not quite the bone-numbing instant frostbite stuff that has been in the area the last 36 hours or so.  Rest assured, that will be back soon enough, as you look at conditions to the northwest of Michigan.  You really cant tell the difference in temperatures right now though, with 10-15 MPH winds right now.  Let's take a look.

SNOW MACHINE STILL RUNNING:  You can see in the visible satellite image the west-northwesterly winds coming across Lake Michigan making sure that snow box stays well- covered with snow, and the snow bands extending well inland, reaching as far as the US-127 corridor.  Don't expect that to change anytime soon either...

MORE BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY:  As I alluded to, more bitter cold air on the way in the next 24 hours or so.  The lake effect snow machine will dial back a bit, as readings dip into the sub-zero lows again, with highs in the single digits.  The 18 degrees we see today will feel balmy compared to highs that fight to get much above zero!  I'm forecasting a high of 12 tomorrow, and then the bottom falls out with readings barely holding 5 above for Thursday, and lows as cold as -15 before you even tack on a wind chill value!  Expect Wind Chill Advisories or Warnings for tomorrow and Thursday night in the area.

PERIODS OF SNOW:  I expect some light to even moderate snow in the area through Wednesday night.  Thursday we catch a break, as the bitter cold temporarily shuts down the snow machine, at least inland.  After Thursday, a rebound in temperatures to near the freezing mark allows more lake effect snow to develop.

LOOKING AHEAD:  For the weekend, some light snow on Friday and perhaps into Saturday, with some mixed sunshine as well - lake effect snow bands will keep rotating through, with a bona fide low coming out of the southern Plains on Saturday that could track south of Michigan and bring some more substantial snows to the area.

Here's the forecast:

Tonight - Mainly cloudy.  Periods of snow continue as lake effect bands keep rotating through the area.  Lows near 3.  Winds NW 5-10 MPH will bring coldest wind chills down to -12.

Wednesday - Continued cloudy and cold.  Highs near 12.  Winds NW 5-10 MPH will keep wind chill values at or just below zero.

Thursday - Some clearing, bitter cold.  Daytime highs struggle to hold 5 above.  NW winds 6-12 MPH keep coldest wind chills between -10 to -13.

I'll have more for you later.  Have a great Wednesday!