About to start one of the two day jobs here, but I do have the time to give you a look at the major themes for the next several days in the area. You can expect a PM forecast this trip around. I hope you have a great day!
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Quick Thoughts For The New Week...
Good Morning -
About to start one of the two day jobs here, but I do have the time to give you a look at the major themes for the next several days in the area. You can expect a PM forecast this trip around. I hope you have a great day!
About to start one of the two day jobs here, but I do have the time to give you a look at the major themes for the next several days in the area. You can expect a PM forecast this trip around. I hope you have a great day!
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Quick Look For The Week...
Good Evening!
You can say goodbye to the warm season for sure now - we are back to Standard Time as of early this morning, and looking around, most of the trees are bare. The colder temperatures are here to stay, and along with them, rain and such. Taking a look at the forecast for the week, we do see some unseasonably mild weather come in mid week, and along with that, some showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Either side of that, temperatures seasonably cool, with mixed sunshine tossed in. Have a look at the graphics and you'll see how I think the week shakes out:
I hope you have a great week! Blessings.
Monday, October 28, 2013
Warming & Rainy...
Good Afternoon!
With some rare down time, taking a look at the weather picture through the end of the month, and it looks like the Halloween forecast is going to be full of tricks and not treats for all of the little goblins :-( -- Let's put the snorkel on and take a deeper dive.
MAINLY DRY, AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK: Dew point values are not much above freezing right now, and they will not creep up a whole lot for the next couple of days. A northeast flow aloft is bringing some moist air into Michigan, backing in off Lake Huron. That may trigger a few spotty showers, but what we're missing is a lifting mechanism to toss air upward and destabilize it enough to make some widespread rain. That all changes Wednesday night and into Thursday, as an upper disturbance that could create some severe weather issues in the Plains and Dixie Alley looks to phase up with what the models are thinking will become a bona fide low coming out of the upper Midwest. Have a look at the forecast map off the GFS model:
If those two can link up, we'll have plenty of showers and thunder, and I'll possibly have to dust off the severe weather portion of my postings.
A BRIEF REMINDER OF SPRING: Remember my last post saying that Fall is here to stay? This is why weather keeps you humble. I have to change that and go 180 degrees the other way. The latter half of the week should see temperatures into the 60's. That will bring in warmer dew point values and consequent with the arrival of the atmospheric floor jack in the form of a low to provide some lifting, we'll have conditions ripe for thunderstorms. The average temperature is 53 in this part of the world right now, and the GFS forecast model is suggesting 59 and 64 for daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. For now I'll buy that with the planner - you'll see below.
SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK?: The jury is still out on that one folks. I can say that the south end of Tornado Alley and even into north Texas will have at least an even money shot at some rough weather mid week, but the Storm Prediction Center isn't quite sure how far north and east out of the Plains that risk comes. Right now for Day 3 (10/30) SPC shows a general risk of storms that stops just short of the heart of the blog area. I'm sure that will change as the picture becomes clearer. Mississippi and Alabama may get some action on Halloween though. Have a look at the map:
And while we're on the subject of rain and such, here's what the Weather Predcition Center thinks regarding our chances for rain over the next five days:
As you can see the prediction is for some good rainfall, the lion's share of that in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.
OK - AFTER HALLOWEEN, THEN WHAT?: The low that I alluded to that is poised to bring us our showers and storms later this week leaves the US via the Upper Peninsula and Traverse City, leaving cooler conditions, some clouds, and the chance of some lingering showers until Sunday. After that it looks like we clear off and enjoy a bit more sunshine than we have seen the last several days.
Here's the forecast for you:
And a look at the extended six day forecast:
I hope you have a great rest of your Monday! Blessings.
With some rare down time, taking a look at the weather picture through the end of the month, and it looks like the Halloween forecast is going to be full of tricks and not treats for all of the little goblins :-( -- Let's put the snorkel on and take a deeper dive.
MAINLY DRY, AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK: Dew point values are not much above freezing right now, and they will not creep up a whole lot for the next couple of days. A northeast flow aloft is bringing some moist air into Michigan, backing in off Lake Huron. That may trigger a few spotty showers, but what we're missing is a lifting mechanism to toss air upward and destabilize it enough to make some widespread rain. That all changes Wednesday night and into Thursday, as an upper disturbance that could create some severe weather issues in the Plains and Dixie Alley looks to phase up with what the models are thinking will become a bona fide low coming out of the upper Midwest. Have a look at the forecast map off the GFS model:
 |
| This forecast map is valid around 5 PM on Halloween. Plenty of rain to go around. |
A BRIEF REMINDER OF SPRING: Remember my last post saying that Fall is here to stay? This is why weather keeps you humble. I have to change that and go 180 degrees the other way. The latter half of the week should see temperatures into the 60's. That will bring in warmer dew point values and consequent with the arrival of the atmospheric floor jack in the form of a low to provide some lifting, we'll have conditions ripe for thunderstorms. The average temperature is 53 in this part of the world right now, and the GFS forecast model is suggesting 59 and 64 for daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. For now I'll buy that with the planner - you'll see below.
SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK?: The jury is still out on that one folks. I can say that the south end of Tornado Alley and even into north Texas will have at least an even money shot at some rough weather mid week, but the Storm Prediction Center isn't quite sure how far north and east out of the Plains that risk comes. Right now for Day 3 (10/30) SPC shows a general risk of storms that stops just short of the heart of the blog area. I'm sure that will change as the picture becomes clearer. Mississippi and Alabama may get some action on Halloween though. Have a look at the map:
And while we're on the subject of rain and such, here's what the Weather Predcition Center thinks regarding our chances for rain over the next five days:
 |
| Rainfall totals approaching two inches just to the north of us, and we pick up around an inch. |
OK - AFTER HALLOWEEN, THEN WHAT?: The low that I alluded to that is poised to bring us our showers and storms later this week leaves the US via the Upper Peninsula and Traverse City, leaving cooler conditions, some clouds, and the chance of some lingering showers until Sunday. After that it looks like we clear off and enjoy a bit more sunshine than we have seen the last several days.
Here's the forecast for you:
And a look at the extended six day forecast:
I hope you have a great rest of your Monday! Blessings.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Fall Is Here To Stay - Not Quite So Dreary Though...
Good Evening!
With another rare chance to look at and digest some weather data for you, time to have a look at what's going on in and around the area. Let's get to it.
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN: You can see the mixed sunshine in this part of the world on the visible satellite image:
These banded clouds continue to bring some precipitation with them through the weekend. If you're under mainly blue skies, enjoy them, as they won't last all that long. If you're under cloudy skies, expect light showers and a few snowflakes mixed in. That's the pattern I expect us to stay with through the weekend, even though we see a change early next week as the cool air gets shoved back north for a bit and...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO START THE WEEK: We finally manage to break the winter-like temperature pattern that has been in place, even if only for a few days. Winds aloft turn westerly then southwest, and as a result, I expect temperatures to climb back into the 50's for the early part of next week, with some places edging toward 60, but I don't think anyone manages to get there. We'll keep in some chances of rain/snowshowers as a couple of upper disturbances work through as well. Average temperature this time of year in this part of the world is 54 degrees, and I think that is quite manageable, and apparently the computer models seem to agree. After we get to mid-week though, we'll see...
COOLING BACK TO LATE FALL LEVELS: The mercury heads back south for the latter half of next with readings not even making it out of the 40's. Along with that, a return to the lake-effect precipitation motif as winds once again turn northwesterly and blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.
Here's a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is saying for us regarding precipitation the next five days...
As you can see, not a whole lot going on here, other than the lake effect. That being said, I expect a decent amount of change in this forecast at least until tomorrow night. The computer forecast models hate lake-effect precipitation forecasting almost as much as they hate convective weather forecasting. They don't do very well with it. They can usually get you to the right block for the party, but it's up to us forecasters to find the correct house :-)
NO SEVERE WEATHER OR MAJOR WINTER ISSUES HERE: The only severe weather chances of note currently are on Saturday down in Texas, where a couple of gusty thunderstorms may pop up, but no slight risk anywhere in the US the next 72 hours.
Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leoni Township:
Tonight - periods of clouds, some rain or snow showers when the clouds roll through, lows near 28. Watch for the occasional slick spot while driving as temperatures fall through freezing late. Winds NW 6-12 MPH will bring wind chills closer to 23 degrees.
Friday - more mixed sunshine, clouds can bring some rain or rain mixed with flurries thanks to the lake effect, high 47. Wind W 5-10 MPH. Wind chills closer to 40 during the day.
Friday night - continued partly cloudy, same setup as Thursday night with some clouds maybe bringing some rain or rain and flurries, not quite as cold, lows around 31. Wind W 4-8 MPH.
Saturday - partly sunny, not as cold, high 49.
Sunday - partly sunny, high 50.
Monday - mainly clear, warmer, high 53.
Tuesday - increasing clouds, some PM showers developing, high 54.
Wednesday - partly to mainly cloudy, some scattered showers, high 53 then falling during the evening.
There's a look at your forecast - have a wonderful evening!
With another rare chance to look at and digest some weather data for you, time to have a look at what's going on in and around the area. Let's get to it.
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN: You can see the mixed sunshine in this part of the world on the visible satellite image:
 |
| Visible Satellite Image - notice the loose lake-effect banding over the southwest quarter of Michigan. |
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO START THE WEEK: We finally manage to break the winter-like temperature pattern that has been in place, even if only for a few days. Winds aloft turn westerly then southwest, and as a result, I expect temperatures to climb back into the 50's for the early part of next week, with some places edging toward 60, but I don't think anyone manages to get there. We'll keep in some chances of rain/snowshowers as a couple of upper disturbances work through as well. Average temperature this time of year in this part of the world is 54 degrees, and I think that is quite manageable, and apparently the computer models seem to agree. After we get to mid-week though, we'll see...
COOLING BACK TO LATE FALL LEVELS: The mercury heads back south for the latter half of next with readings not even making it out of the 40's. Along with that, a return to the lake-effect precipitation motif as winds once again turn northwesterly and blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.
Here's a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is saying for us regarding precipitation the next five days...
As you can see, not a whole lot going on here, other than the lake effect. That being said, I expect a decent amount of change in this forecast at least until tomorrow night. The computer forecast models hate lake-effect precipitation forecasting almost as much as they hate convective weather forecasting. They don't do very well with it. They can usually get you to the right block for the party, but it's up to us forecasters to find the correct house :-)
NO SEVERE WEATHER OR MAJOR WINTER ISSUES HERE: The only severe weather chances of note currently are on Saturday down in Texas, where a couple of gusty thunderstorms may pop up, but no slight risk anywhere in the US the next 72 hours.
Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leoni Township:
Tonight - periods of clouds, some rain or snow showers when the clouds roll through, lows near 28. Watch for the occasional slick spot while driving as temperatures fall through freezing late. Winds NW 6-12 MPH will bring wind chills closer to 23 degrees.
Friday - more mixed sunshine, clouds can bring some rain or rain mixed with flurries thanks to the lake effect, high 47. Wind W 5-10 MPH. Wind chills closer to 40 during the day.
Friday night - continued partly cloudy, same setup as Thursday night with some clouds maybe bringing some rain or rain and flurries, not quite as cold, lows around 31. Wind W 4-8 MPH.
Saturday - partly sunny, not as cold, high 49.
Sunday - partly sunny, high 50.
Monday - mainly clear, warmer, high 53.
Tuesday - increasing clouds, some PM showers developing, high 54.
Wednesday - partly to mainly cloudy, some scattered showers, high 53 then falling during the evening.
There's a look at your forecast - have a wonderful evening!
Monday, October 21, 2013
FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED
Branch and Hillsdale Counties, you're under a freeze warning until 9 AM tomorrow. Temperatures falling to between 29-33 degrees will harm or kill tender vegetation. Cover plants that must stay outdoors, bring inside what you're able to. These temperatures will persist during the night the next couple of nights.
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