Saturday, January 26, 2013
Quick Look Tonight & Tomorrow
I have a complete forecast discussion and six-day outlook for you below, but if you just need the basics, here's how tonight and tomorrow will shape up for you:
Quick Warmup = A Big Meltdown...
Good Evening!
I have been so busy that I have not had the chance to feed this blog like I want to. Working a job with unsteady hours and such is an adventure. Anyway, quite a bit to talk about so let's get to it.
SUMMARY: An Alberta Clipper came through and dropped some snow on us. Most places in the blog area got up to around two inches of new snowfall, as you travel west, those amount upticked toward three inches. Now we are in a break in the action, with clear skies, and for the first time in a few days, no lake effect snow falling west of US 131. Another upper disturbance tracks through the area tomorrow and creates snow that will change phases, eventually ending up as rain with warming temperatures working into the area over the next few days.
I would not be at all surprised to see most of all of our snow melt, except the large piles in parking lots and such. In fact, some places may run into some flooding issues with rain combining with rapid snow melt. Temperatures will be up and down like the yo-yo for the next several days, with forecast models suggesting temperatures in the mid to upper 50's on Tuesday, and then those same readings right back below freezing by the weekend.
PRECIPITATION: You see that I have titled this section precipitation as opposed to snow. Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees above normal in the coming days, if the models have a handle on the big picture. Because of that, snow that is forecast to start late tomorrow afternoon will change from snow to sleet and freezing rain, then over to all rain as the cold air is pushed back north, and unseasonably mild air works into the area. All of this takes place during the evening and nighttime hours of Sunday and into Monday. Let's take a look at the National Weather Service 5 Day map...
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
As it stands now, we will be plenty rainy and messy between now and 7 PM Thursday evening, with up to 2" of liquid expected to fall. Don't be surprised to see some flood related advisories/warnings from the National Weather Service in the next day or two, especially for the Grand River and perhaps the Kalamazoo and St. Joseph rivers off to the west of us.
Let's take a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Rives Junction:
Tonight, clouds on the increase, seasonably cold, lows down to 15, W winds turn S and diminish to 3-6 MPH.
Sunday, cloudy skies, afternoon snow developing, temperatures stay around 31, winds S increasing to 8-14 MPH. Winter Weather Advisory after 3 PM for snow turning into a wintry mix, then becoming rain.
Sunday night, cloudy, wintry mix as temperatures start to warm above freezing. Snow becomes freezing rain and sleet which is expected to freeze on untreated roads, creating travel issues. Temperatures remain nearly steady at 29, wind S 6-12 MPH.
Monday, cloudy, rainy, some of the rain may be locally heavy at times, unseasonably warm with a high near 45. Winds S 6-12 MPH.
Tuesday, clouds linger, along with scattered to numerous showers, springlike temperatures, highs near 57.
Wednesday, clouds and rain persist, more scattered showers, not as warm, high 44.
Thursday, some clearing skies and polar air blasts back into the air, sending temperatures back to seasonable levels daytime highs stay near 24.
Friday, mainly sunny, perhaps some scattered clouds, cold. High 20.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Saturday night, please be careful tomorrow!
Wednesday, clouds and rain persist, more scattered showers, not as warm, high 44.
Thursday, some clearing skies and polar air blasts back into the air, sending temperatures back to seasonable levels daytime highs stay near 24.
Friday, mainly sunny, perhaps some scattered clouds, cold. High 20.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Saturday night, please be careful tomorrow!
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY - CLINTON, EATON, INGHAM, CALHOUN, JACKSON, BRANCH, HILLSDALE
PLEASE NOTE: The National Weather Service Northern Indiana is responsible for Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties in Michigan, and their advisory has nearly identical wording.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 337 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-270445- /O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0004.130127T2000Z-130128T1000Z/ MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY- EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MUSKEGON...GREENVILLE...ALMA... JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HOLLAND...HASTINGS... CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK... JACKSON 337 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS... * SLIPPERY ROADS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW. * ICY ROADS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Short-Term Forecast
Hello!
Here's a look at your forecast for two of the larger communities in the North and South zones of the blog:
Have a great evening!
Here's a look at your forecast for two of the larger communities in the North and South zones of the blog:
Have a great evening!
Lake Effect Advisory - UPDATE
Hello.
The NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight for pretty much all of the western chunk of the blog. Let's dive into that.
A great question was posed by a Facebook follower, asking why that advisory is up for Lansing and Ingham/Eaton counties, with no snow showing on the radar? Here's what I see.
The National Weather Service just put the advisory out shortly before 2 PM EST. It looked like everything would stay confined to US 131 and west, as I stated in the forecast discussion earlier today. Between this morning and now, conditions have changed to support more widespread snowfall.
Taking a look at the forecast models and some current conditions, I talked about Alberta Clippers, which is a nickname for an upper air disturbance embedded in the larger flow. You may also hear or see the term Jet Streak or Jet Core. Whatever the name, this small pocket of really fast moving air acts as a trigger, and destabilizes the atmosphere on a more localized basis than your garden variety front.. We have one sitting near us right now, and it won't move a lot between now and midnight according to the RAP forecast model.
It will enhance the lake-effect snow that has been falling the last couple of days by the lake shore, and the strong winds aloft will help push those bands further inland. Hence, the advisory, and along with it, since this is a banded snow event, the amounts of snow any one spot picks up will vary significantly.
Here's the NWS forecast for snow through late tonight...
I hope this helps clarify why we have that in place!
The NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight for pretty much all of the western chunk of the blog. Let's dive into that.
A great question was posed by a Facebook follower, asking why that advisory is up for Lansing and Ingham/Eaton counties, with no snow showing on the radar? Here's what I see.
The National Weather Service just put the advisory out shortly before 2 PM EST. It looked like everything would stay confined to US 131 and west, as I stated in the forecast discussion earlier today. Between this morning and now, conditions have changed to support more widespread snowfall.
Taking a look at the forecast models and some current conditions, I talked about Alberta Clippers, which is a nickname for an upper air disturbance embedded in the larger flow. You may also hear or see the term Jet Streak or Jet Core. Whatever the name, this small pocket of really fast moving air acts as a trigger, and destabilizes the atmosphere on a more localized basis than your garden variety front.. We have one sitting near us right now, and it won't move a lot between now and midnight according to the RAP forecast model.
It will enhance the lake-effect snow that has been falling the last couple of days by the lake shore, and the strong winds aloft will help push those bands further inland. Hence, the advisory, and along with it, since this is a banded snow event, the amounts of snow any one spot picks up will vary significantly.
Here's the NWS forecast for snow through late tonight...
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| Snow Forecast, National Weather Service Grand Rapids, updated during lunchtime. |
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